Thread by @Iyervval

This isn’t just an intel failure in Israel - it’s a monumental system-of-systems collapse. It’s a multi year, compound intel failure, a higher management failure, a defence mechanism failure, a redundancy failure, a response failure, a situation management failure, a logistics failure, a military failure

Here are some questions we should be asking
• how were 5000 rockets accumulated without detection
• how were these 5000 rockets deployed & fired in a mere 20 minutes without triggering alarms
• this operation clearly involved hundreds of men - how weak was your humint/sigint/elint to not pick up?

• the Gaza border has cameras, thermal imaging, motion sensors every few meters and sensors to detect wires being cut. You can’t get close to that barrier without getting Israeli patrols on you in minutes.
• What happened ? Was there a coordinated cyber attack to immobilise all these assets?

• how were each of these border monitoring assets not islanded & network gapped to prevent a full systems failure?
• when detection systems failed redundancy mechanisms like drone/air surveillance should’ve been automatically activated. Why wasn’t it?

• when the defences were breached for bourse people were pouring in and out. Where were the air assets to prevent reinforcements?
• where was the in-country air support when it was known from OSINT and government assets the path these terror pickup trucks were taking?

• the murder spree went on for 4 hours, garrisons at Nahal Oz were overrun and you couldn’t muster even a defensive response in 4 hours?
• by 10.30 IST it was clear this was a hostage taking and mass casualty undertaking. You still didn’t prioritise saving lives? Or choke egress?

• You’ve had enough warning something could happen given how close to a peace deal with the Saudis you were. Weren’t you paying attention?
• intel chiefs have been busy joining anti government protests and going woke. You didn’t enforce discipline?

As things stand, it’s not just intel heads that’ll have to roll - but military, police, political & bureaucratic heads as well

And this is why Israel’s response with be disproportionate. Everyone who failed will want to save themselves & they will probably engage in uncalibrated retaliation that will scuttle diplomatic prospects in the short term. There is a rumour going around TLV that the Qataris

ordered this precisely to slow down or stop the Saudi deal. But the Saudi twitter response is curious. Saudi twitterati are showing deep sympathy for israel. This may not turn out the way the Qataris gamed it. So you might have a massive Israeli response to save military political & bureaucratic ass and only postpone formal peace deals by a month or so