Thread by @ForensicArchi

Preliminary analysis by FA, @alhaq_org & @earshot_ngo into the #AlAhli hospital blast in Gaza casts significant doubt on IOF claims that the source of the deadly explosion was a Palestinian-fired rocket travelling west to east.

3D analysis shows patterns of radial fragmentation on the southwest side of the impact crater, as well as a shallow channel leading into the crater from the northeast. Such patterns indicate a likely projectile trajectory with northeast origins.

In reviewing our analysis, investigator & explosive weapons expert @CobbSmith agrees the fragmentation patterns may indicate the projectile came from the northeast—the direction of the Israeli-controlled side of the Gaza perimeter—and not from the west, as claimed by the IOF.

Our/@CobbSmith’s analysis of the crater size suggests a munition larger than eg a Spike or Hellfire missile commonly used by IOF drones. It is more consistent w/ the impact marks from an artillery shell—but w/o additional material evidence, we cannot make a definitive assessment.

This image taken by John Moore in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine in 2022 shows the directionality of fragmentation of an artillery shell - - compared to the crater at the #AlAhli sitegettyimages.dk/detail/news-ph…

Drawing upon available footage, our partner @earshot_ngo performed independent audio analysis of the missile attack, the findings from which lend further credibility to our preliminary assessment of directionality:

Israel has falsely claimed that ‘the IDF does not hit hospitals’. @alhaq_org has footage of an IOF strike on the Al-Ahli Hospital cancer ward on 14 Oct (see image stills), and WHO has reported 59 attacks on healthcare in Gaza and 137 across the Occupied Territory since 7 Oct.

The IOF has a long history of providing false and misleading information after it has targeted and killed civilians. See: our investigations into the killing of Shireen Abu Akleh and the bombing of the Al-Katibah building forensic-architecture.org/investigation/…
forensic-architecture.org/investigation/…

@earshot_ngo analysed the recording released by IOF officials of an alleged exchange between members of Hamas implicating the Islamic Jihad in the attack. They found that the recording was manipulated and therefore not a credible source of evidence:

A conclusive investigation into this attack requires full access to the site and munition fragments, as well as witness interviews. We continue our work on this case, and reaffirm our solidarity with Palestinian people under attack, including our friends & colleagues.