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Data over Mythology. MJ & Lebron are BOTH undefeated in Finals over age 28, when favored. GOATs don’t “reward” scorekeepers. Lebron is held to higher standards.

Oct 23, 2023, 22 tweets

LEBRON PLAYOFF MINUTES IN 2011: THE HARDEST SET OF LATE PLAYOFF MINUTES IN 40 YEARS 🧵

People say Lebron didn’t “have a heart of a champion” in 2011. It’s wrong.

Nobody played harder in late May/June than he did in 2011…for the last 40 YEARS.

He simply wore out.

Let’s look.

This looks at:
1) 1984 on (the 4 PO series era)

2) CF & Finals

3) Games where guys play through rotation breaks and get limited rest. Defined as 45+ min games.

A 45+ MPG happens once every 3 PO games since 84 (36%). 1 out of 30 starts.

Quibble with it…it’s top 3% MP games.

In 2011, Lebron played the hardest set of LATE playoff minutes in 40 yrs.

He played:
7 45+ min games in his last 10 gms
The entire 2nd half in 14 of 23 PO gms

In his last 15 games, Lebron missed a TOTAL of 6 2nd half minutes.

SIX.

Nobody has done that since 84.

He wore out.

MJ fans will say…guys play 45 min ALL THE TIME.

No.

MJ had 17 total in CF and Finals (9-8, out of 70 games). No YEAR > 4.

Lebron had 7 in 22 days.

Lebron had 3 in a row.

The 1st time MJ played BACK-TO-BACK 45+ min games in June, he didn’t have a FG in the last 22 min.

People will also say guys play in the 2nd half without rest ALL THE TIME.

No.

Lebron’s 14 games in 2011 is the MOST in the PO over the 27 years data exists.

He played 8 games without 2nd half rest in his last 10 games.

The next most is 5, Iverson in 2001. Kobe had 4 in 2004.

This is the list of players with 7 or more 45+ minute games in Conf Finals and Finals combined in one year.

This is it…since 1984.

Hats off to Shaq. But Centers run 70% the distance wings do.

The rest of the list has zero wins.

Let’s talk about the list.

4 players had more 45+ games but, again, Lebron’s 2nd halves look different. Shaq played through 4 times. Iverson 3. Lebron EIGHT.

If a player isn’t resting in the 2nd half…when do you think they wear down?

In the fourth quarter, perhaps? 🤔

Note that MJ was guarded TWICE by guys at the peak of exhaustion.

Payton himself said he was playing “too many minutes.”

Majerle had to be taken off MJ bc of it.

Is it harder to BE the guy playing excessive minutes, or to be GUARDED by the guy playing excessive minutes? 🤔

Finally…note also that Iverson’s effort was viewed as HEROIC. Such a warrior.

He shot a miserable 37% in these series.

But…he got recognized for how hard he worked.

Even Iverson said he wasn’t sure when his tank would run out.

When it’s Lebron? “No heart.” 🙄

For the “only Finals matter” folks (why count CF, right?)…Lebron is still one of a handful of guys with 4 45+ min gms.

Wings who were their team’s dominant scorers on this list went 0-8.

All but 1 a HoF player.

0-8.

Lebron: the only wing SUPPOSED to win carrying this weight.

People will say it doesn’t matter. The Heat were a “Superteam!”

Actually, Lebron had these minutes because they had no depth. James Jones didn’t play in the Finals.

Almost the entire Finals lineup had a negative BPM for the season.

Far from a “super” team.


They’ll also say “look at TOTAL playoff minutes.”

2011 Lebron ranks 41st in PO MP since 84
He’s 5th in MPG on the list
2011 ranks 23rd in RS + PO MP, since 84

And, again…how many ended the year playing straight through after halftime for 80% of their gms?

Also: Where’s MJ? 🤷‍♂️

From this list, the 4 guys playing more than Lebron’s 43.95 MPG? Winless. 0-4.

Wings above 42 MPG, not named Lebron? 0-11

No scoring wings won Finals playing like this. But Lebron is “disqualified” because he didn’t win in this situation.

He paid for the Heat’s lack of depth.

The MJ folks will point to MJ in 1993, when he averaged 45.7 MPG in the Finals.

In the 93 Finals, Barkley & Majerle played MORE minutes. #2 and #4 in PO MP in the last 40 yrs.

The 93 Suns were the most exhausted team EVER.

Lebron was alone.

MJ also lost the 3OT game.

People will also point to 1998, when MJ averaged 41.7 MPG in the Finals.

1) MJ had TWO 45+ minute games in the entire playoffs

2) MJ got 27 minutes of rest in second halves in the Finals. Lebron got…FOUR minutes.

3) Malone choked. Dirk didn’t.

Different.

By the way, wasn’t Wade supposed to be “TEACHING” Lebron how to win? Why wasn’t he out on the court with him as long?

Or Bosh?

Aren’t they the “winners?” Why’d they let the “loser” play longer?

What stopped them with a title on the line?

No heart? Pussies? Too tired? 🤔

For those who argue “elite athletes don’t get tired at 26.”

1) If fatigue isn’t an issue…why don’t ALL 26 year olds play 48 minutes? Why are there rotations for anyone?

2) Why isn’t MJ at the TOP of these lists? He “never” got tired. 🤷‍♂️

3) Why are all these wings winless?

Others will argue: “he should’ve just shot more.”

He was 0-7 from 3 in the clutch in the series. So…force more shots on dead legs?

The Heat were 22-2 in 2011 when Lebron took 15 shots or less. They were better with him as a facilitator.

There were no issues with the strategy.

Finally…people will say “Lebron SAID he wasn’t there mentally.”

Yeah, significant physical exhaustion leads to mental exhaustion.

People have studied this. “Long periods of athletic training” impact mental exhaustion.

What was he “on?” Not enough rest.


So…nobody in FORTY years has ever played LATE playoff minutes as hard as Lebron did in 2011.

Only a handful of guys are even in the same category on MPG…and NONE had the 2nd halves without rest.

But he was a “pussy.”

BTW, he reduced the second-half-no-rest thing after 2011.

With this context—go see the film. It’s there.

Lebron had dead legs. He deferred. He defended slower. His body language is a guy wiped out.

Exhaustion also impacts you mentally.

This was a MUCH harder situation than people say.

And he learned—peak Lebron is 2012-2020.

So…add this to list of UNKNOWN 2011 details:

DAL had a 62 win rate when Dirk played (2-7 w/o him)

DAL had the best 5 man “Death Lineup” in the last 27 yrs

MIA’s closing lineups played 14 min together, EVER

The Barea meme is a double tm

Lebron had hardest PO MP in 40 yrs

🤯


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