Thread by @tbonier

Okay! 1 week until EDay in VA, here are my thoughts on the early vote so far. Let's start with some quick caveats: more than 2/3 votes will likely be cast on Eday, and many more early votes are yet to be cast. The TLDR version is that EV is still consistent with a close election.

What you won't find in this analysis - statewide numbers. Our focus is on the battleground House and Senate seats. Statewide comparisons to previous elections are relatively meaningless. Control will be determined across a handful of districts.

What's more, the most important analysis is the comparison to the same point in time in previous cycles. That said, given the significant changes in ballot access in 2020, the only relevant comparisons are '21 and '22, and both are imperfect.

Final caveats: the analysis relies on comparisons of modeled partisanship across '21-'23 at the same point in time in each election (7 days out). VA does not have party reg, so the models are a proxy, but are imperfect. They do not capture candidate support.

At this point, across the battleground Senate and House districts, modeled Dems outnumber modeled GOPs (+13 in the House, +15.9 in the Senate). That said, in '21 at this time those leads were 21.3 and 26.1 in those same districts. The GOP has narrowed the turnout gap in these LDs

Is that cause for panic for Dems in VA? No - the GOP, after functionally abandoning early voting (especially mail) in '20, and carrying into subsequent elections, they have invested heavily in getting their voters out early this time around. So some narrowing was expected.

That said, it is not accurate to say that the GOP is simply "cannibalizing their Eday vote" (not a Halloween reference) by just turning out people who would have voted on Eday anyhow. It is true that a significant majority of early voters (D and R) are regular voters though.

Only about 6 to 8% of early voters in targeted districts are either first time or infrequent voters. So the overwhelming majority of these early votes are cast by fairly high propensity voters.

If we limit our analysis to those early voters who didn't vote at all in '21 (about 9% of all EVs so far), Dems have a modeled advantage of 12% in target HDs and 15% in SDs. That's decent, but in '22 the modeled Dem turnout share advantage among these surge voters was about 20%.

So you get the general idea here, more GOPs are voting early in VA than have in the past two cycles. Most are likely voters, but GOPs have narrowed the turnout gap among the infrequent early voters, so there are signs that both bases are relatively energized.

From a demo perspective, women are accounting for a slightly smaller share of EVs than they were at this point in '21 (0.4 pts). This is a function of more GOPs voting early and isn't especially significant. That said, white women are also accounting for a larger share of the EV.

Voters under age 30 also comprise a slightly smaller share of the EV (0.2 pts), so this isn't substantial, but it is worth keeping in mind that the electorate in VA in '21 was skewed fairly old to begin with.

There are a lot of additional ways you can parse the EV in VA, and I likely will share more in the coming days (we will be updating the data every day). But I'll wrap this thread up with some bigger picture observations.

- GOP investments in early voting are showing
- Dems are still voting early in big numbers
- The EV skews whiter, older, and more male than previous years (see first bullet)
- More than 2/3 votes are yet to be cast in VA

Anticipating questions about the impact of abortion on races in VA: this is my opinion, but I don't believe we've yet seen the full impact of the issue in VA. Recall in 2022, Dem turnout and performance was highest in states where the issue was on the ballot, or in the forefront.

In public polls released earlier this month, independent voters in VA displayed a certain discord: giving Youngkin high approval ratings, but overwhelmingly opposing stricter abortion laws in the state. As the electorate focuses in on his agenda, the GOP will have issues.

I'll add more in the coming days, but as I said in starting this thread, everything I am seeing is consistent with close races in VA, and the work done over the final 7 days will likely determine control of both chambers.