Thread by @AramLeighton8

With a price tag expected to be over $200M and a league-impacting decision hanging in the balance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto could be one of a kind.

A breakdown on why so many teams are in a frenzy for the Japanese star and a look at what makes him so special from a data perspective🧵

Despite standing at just 5-foot-10, 176 pounds, Yamamoto's delivery is low-effort, consistently maintaining his mid 90s fastball velo deep into starts.

This was his 138th pitch of his final start of the year. It was clocked at 96.6 mph in a 9 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K performance.

Absurd flexibility, core strength and being incredibly in tune with his body helps him get the most out of his frame while minimizing strain.

As @JeffPassan detailed in his latest (link at end of thread) there's nothing normal about Yamamoto's prep.

Yamamoto's fastball is far from normal as well, averaging 95 mph and 17 inches of induced vertical break from a 5.4 ft. release height.

The avg MLB fastball is 94 mph with 16 inches of induced vertical break from a 5.9 ft. release height. Essentially, his fastball is an outlier.

Generally, the lower the release height, the better for a 4-seamer. It's physically more difficult to induce more vertical break from a lower height, so if a pitcher can be among the 10% lowest release heights in MLB while maintaining above average IVB, hitters are in trouble.

This fantastic graphic is via @DrivelineBB and @LanginTots13

On top of the rare characteristics of the pitch, he commands it well too.

Yamamoto held opponents to a low .200s batting average while using the sneaky arm side run it features (10-12 in.) to his advantage as well, freezing LHH at the front door or running it in on RHH.

Some fun comparisons fastball wise (should be IVB not IBV).

His best out pitch is a diabolical splitter at 90 mph. He will go to it around 30% of the time, landing it for a strike at a 73% clip along with a chase rate above 50% and ground ball rate of 77%.

In terms of velo, shape and spin rate, there's similarities to Alex Cobb's split.

There was not one qualified starter in MLB last season who landed their splitter for a strike more than 70% of the time and only a few starters have a usage rate over 30% (Cobb, Gausman, Maeda).

Opponents hit below .200 with only 4 XBH and 25% SwStr% vs. his splitter in 2023.

His upper 70s CB (15% use) is a problem too. Averaging around -18 in. of vertical break and -14 in. of horizontal at 2800+ RPM. Even with so much depth and two-plane break, he posted a 69% strike rate.

Here's the CB snippet from our YT breakdown

Full vid:

His cutter is more of a weak-contact inducer than a whiff pitch, sitting in the low 90s with just enough movement to avoid barrels.

He utilizes it more against RHH, working away to get them leaning over the plate to set up his fastball or splitter running in. Here's an example.

A pitch that could be more useful for Yamamoto in MLB is his rarely used sweeper at 85 mph.

He only mixed it in a couple times per start at most, but it could be a more effective whiff pitch than his cutter vs. RHH.

This pitch had 14 in. of horizontal and 0 in of vert break.

It takes a player with special abilities to command 200M+ prior to throwing an MLB pitch, but his ace upside paired with a sense of relative safety that is rare (thanks to his athleticism, command and pitch mix) for any IFA star makes him an easy target.

There is so much more to Yamamoto that frankly would have made this thread insufferably long so to find out a bit more check out our Youtube breakdown on him as well as @JeffPassan's phenomenal piece.

YT:
Passan:
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id…