Thread by @goldstone_tony

1/ NEW & IMPORTANT: So we need to talk about NHS pay. NEW shocking [post DDRB] data just in 4/1/24 👇 (SPOILER: Not "fair & reasonable")

We need to fix pay/retention to fix waiting lists- increasingly clear next GE will won/lost on NHS

Please read whole 🧵 & share widely/RT

2/ You'll notice when ministers are in the media, they often talk about how hard "your viewers/listeners" have been hit by inflation. But what we need to do is separate fact from fiction (aka LIES), and it was 👇chart from excellent @jburnmurdoch @FT that really showed this well

@jburnmurdoch @FT 3/ But its not just government ministers gaslighting NHS workers that they have no right for their pay to keep up (like everyone else's), its also the so-called "independent" DDRB👇

Apparently doctors & dentists should not be protected when "its not taking place in other groups"

@jburnmurdoch @FT 4/ Like many people I found the @FT charts extremely compelling. There are many different ways to measure pay loss, but I wondered if I could add consultants to the charts which I did - JBM kindly provided a graph to compare and as you can see they were essentially identical

@jburnmurdoch @FT 5/ There's a small difference (circled) in "all workers all sectors" (an @ONS dataset) during the initial phase of COVID as I have chosen to average pay each month over the prior 12 month period (to better match the @NHSDigital Earnings Estimates methodology) = fairer comparison

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital 6/ As with the now expired charts I previously produced (they went to June'23 as that was then most recent data set) I added some other comparators, perhaps more appropriate for NHS i.e. professional, technical & scientific - a much better & fairer comparator for NHS staff 👇

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital 7/ Its worth pointing out that *ALL* the variables in these charts are *official statistics*. Its either pay or inflation from the @ONS (comparables), NHS pay & waiting list data from @NHSEngland

Average pay is chosen as that is what's used by government. And most commentators

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland 8/ The bottom line in those charts is that NHS pay had been *COMPLETELY DESTROYED* compared to 2009, but the whole economy fared pretty well vs CPI inflation, the most commonly used measure of "headline inflation" which is generally preferred by government & economists

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland 9/ Taking each group (NEW Sept 23 vs OLD June 23 as previously)

Finance & Bus. ⬆️ +6.6%,prev+4.8%
Prof Sci & Techn ⬆️+4.1%, prev+2.8%
All workers, All sectors ⬇️-2.1%,prev-3.5%
Nurses ⬇️⬇️ -8.7%,prev-8.4%
Junior Doctors ⬇️⬇️-24.3%, prev-26.3%
Consultants ⬇️⬇️-22.8%, prev -24.3%

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland 10/ Nurses had a * next to their line previously, their apparent rise due to a non-consolidated payment. Now thats starting to fall again as it was a non-recurrent bonus 😔

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland 11/ So what do those pay cuts actually mean for real terms pay had it kept up with even CPI (and there is a *STRONG* argument for using RPI which is also very valid, for example as it includes mortgage interest payments). It means NHS staff pay has been BRUTALLY cut👇

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland 12/ Compare that to the "whole economy" and the differences are simply flabbergasting.

NHS = BRUTAL Real-terms Cuts - £4-39k/ each and every year DOWN

Whole economy = NOT so much - £0.7k/yr down - £3k/yr UP

Please *ANY* politician tell me this is "FAIR" or REASONABLE 👇

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland 13/ Or maybe someone from the Bank of England pipe up and tell us inflation "hurt" us all, and we should show "restraint"

I think the public sector, and the NHS has been "restrained" a little too tightly, dont you?👇

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland 14/ As noted above, I have used CPI for these charts essentially because that is what the government prefers to use (when it suits them, not in student loans where they use RPI which generally runs higher). Often £100k+ for med students. Disgraceful double standards

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland 15/ You will see that most other commentators also tend to use both average pay (as I have) and like me CPI (or CPIH) when describing pay loss including @jburnmurdoch @FT, @TomHCalver @TheTimes, @BenZaranko @TheIFS, @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 16/ With the exception of the outstanding JBM at the @FT, who starts his pay charts at the start of "austerity" (which was when serious pay erosion started), all others arbitrarily choose Aug 2010 as a start as this is when one of the NHS digital data sets starts

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 17/ Its perfectly possible to stitch this together to earlier copies of the same pay data (needing a small adjustment to account for the different junior grades recorded by headcount), and I would encourage those commentators to do that - otherwise its very unscientific…

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 18/ …comparing apples with oranges when they are INVARIABLY quoted by the media (or by politicians) comparing to other figures including from the BMA and others.

If people want to "fact check" compare like with like, or not at all.

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 19/ It may sound like I'm nitpicking but it makes a BIG difference - all unions generally start from the beginning of austerity (and use RPI as a better guide to household costs). The rest of the economy has caught up (as per the charts), now its the turn of the public sector.

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 20/ So coming back to my first tweet, we kept on being told that the "independent" DDRB offer was "fair & reasonable" 👇

Whats interesting about yesterdays data to September is that it includes DDRB backpay for half the year. These graphs do NOT look fair & reasonable to me!!!

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 21/ They have done virtually nothing to restore our pay, as predicted - and this is using CPI, not RPI used by the BMA and in fact all major unions. Those DDRB awards form the starting point for both the juniors, SAS & consultants offers - basically DDRB plus 3% investment

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 22/ As a consultant myself, I was waiting on yesterday's pay data before deciding how to vote. I encourage all of you to read all the excellent material in the post & online. Please make up your own mind, but *DO* vote.

For me, today, it was a NO

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 23/ For everyone it will be different, but for me it boiled down to 2 main reasons for me (but please make up your own mind)

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 24/ 1️⃣ The total investment was too low. Noone is expecting pay restoration in 1 year realistically, but as per my graphs DDRB barely touched the sides, so DDRB+3% wont help enough [and I would want it spread more evenly, but do consider the long term from pay scale reform]

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 25/ 2️⃣ DDRB changes are a step in the right direction, but its not enough for me i.e. re"affordability"

In fact nowhere near.

DDRB alongside govmnt destroyed our pay. Until they recognise what these graphs show, and are told to fix it, I dont have confidence they will as per 👇

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust 26/ A poll recently (even by the pro-conservative government Daily Mail), showed the most important of @rishisunak's 5 priorities - by FAR - is REDUCE WAITING TIMES - even amongst Tory voters in 2019 .

Those waiting list are really zip all to do with strikes (look at the 📈 )

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust @RishiSunak 27/ There is quite literally not a whisker between @uklabour & @conservatives in 4 of Rishi's targets (debt, boats, inflation, growth)

But where there is a HUGE gap is the NHS (25vs44%)

The next election WILL be about the NHS. Please @10downingstreet VictoriaAtkins fix this!

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust @RishiSunak @UKLabour @Conservatives @10DowningStreet 28/ The NHS's most valuable commodity is its staff. And how those staff are valued by you is a #politicalchoice.

Just like waiting lists - its a political choice to fund the NHS (and its staff) adequately, or allow it to go into terminally decline.

Voters are watching 👀👇

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust @RishiSunak @UKLabour @Conservatives @10DowningStreet 29/ Come to the table, like @keir_starmer has promised he would

Come to the table, like you did with striking barristers 15/12 ago

Come to the table, like Scotland did when their juniors tabled strikes.

@jburnmurdoch @FT @ONS @NHSDigital @NHSEngland @TomHCalver @thetimes @BenZaranko @TheIFS @Billy_Palmer_ @NuffieldTrust @RishiSunak @UKLabour @Conservatives @10DowningStreet @Keir_Starmer 30/ Our NHS is in a DIRE state. None of this is due to striking NHS workers, or (just) covid, but due to political choices @10DowningStreet

RT if you want this (or the next) government to make the choices to fix this mess now & properly #payrestoration #fixDDRB

31/ POSTCRIPT - Ive had a few requests for the chart without the waiting list. I used to produce this regularly but I think the waiting lists are intrinsically connected via #RETENTION but here it is for clarity of the APPALLING pay erosion👇