Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective
It is the fact
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him
He is the rightful King -> guarantor of stability
The Russian establishment has a lot to lose. They are terrified of instability. They correctly realise that in case of chaos, they may lose everything. To keep stability, they need a candidate with the objective right to rule
Once again, not subjective. Specifically, objective
There are currently two such people. Putin and Medvedev. Putin has an objective right to rule, because he received it from Yeltsin. Medvedev has an objective right to rule, because he received in from Putin. Both are legitimate princes, with an objective right to rule Russia
Should Putin die, Medvedev will remain one single legitimate prince with an objective right to rule. In this regard, he will be the only person capable of guaranteeing stability and the perseverance of order. I find it highly likely that the stakeholders will just hand him power
This makes Medvedev an extreme, mortal threat to Putin, irrespectively of what Medvedev thinks or wants. This is the only singular person capable of succeeding Putin and keep stability. At this point, Mevedev is the danger number 1 for Putin's physical survival
Should Medvedev keep silence, he would be No 1 candidate to:
a) succeed Putin
b) make a political U-turn
Therefore, Medvedev cannot keep silence and will have to choose between the physical death and the reputational suicide
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