Thread by @kamilkazani

In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting ruler

Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another

Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?

In 2024, it looks like Putin is actively promoting the members of his old St Petersburg gang on the positions of power. It is not impossible that he will try to keep the crown within this narrow circle, choosing one of its younger members as a successor. This may succeed or not

My prediction is:

After Putin's death, we will probably see another, different nomenklatura gang taking over Russia. This is much more probable than the smooth & successful transition within the St Petersburg gang (extremely difficult to organise)

It is highly probable that future Putin's successors are now integrated into the Putin's regime, occupying positions of money & power in province. Since 1917, Russia has never ever been run by a Muscovite. Ruling gangs always come from the periphery/semi-periphery

Transition of power to the Moscow opposition (that Western powers are nearly universally betting on) appears to be unlikely. Most probably, future successors of Putin belong to the nomenklatura