I understand this is a personal opinion of his, but I don’t think this is anywhere close to be true. I know many in the West also think similarly. But no, they couldn’t. There’s numerous reasons why, and I’ll take the opportunity to address this here🧵
Many had the assumptions about the ru superiority over Ukraine and it collapsing in a short while. Ru capabilities were overplayed and Ukraine underestimated. I think there’s a similar dynamic here. But what really stands out here is geography and terrain they would have to cross
There’s only few axis an attack could possibly come from, and they will be guarded. It also narrows down the force size that they could use to attack us (they will also have to worry about the entire border with Finland, Poland and Ukraine to worry about - a front longer in size
than the entire WW2 Eastern front).
Big part of Kaliningrad is shielded with the biggest river in Lithuania – Nemunas, and nothing I’ve seen from ru inspires confidence in their amphibious assault capabilities. There’s no roads/infrastructure going up (1 small bridge), with
marshes and swamplands behind it. This leaves only an attack towards Suvalkija or Vilnius from Belarus as a viable option.
Suwalki gap is a foresty swamp, that will have defenses constructed there. And on the way on our capital they would have to cross the most difficult terrain in LT – an entire aquapark of swamps, rivers, lakes, and dense forests, while being picked off by our long range arty,
mines, and hit & run ambushes.
They spent 9 months taking Bakhmut, the size of 72K ppl before invasion, yet they will supposedly take Vilnius - 8 times larger than that - with hills and few rivers in the middle of it, all in a matter of couple of days? Sure, Jan.
After that, they would still need to take Kaunas - 350K city in the center and logistics hub. Šiauliai, Panevėžys and Klaipėda - all urban centers with over 100K population.
Most likely, if no help would come, they would eventually overwhelm the defenders, yet it would take a whole lot longer than 7 days.
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