Thread by @Edit_Kev

Towards the end of last season, I drafted a 🧵(🔗 below) about the realistic transfers I felt that #NUFC & Howe would look to add to the squad.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve received some requests to do the same for this upcoming season, so here goes 🔽

Before we start, let’s mark my homework from last season:

✅ Harvey Barnes ✍️’ed for #NUFC
❌ I didn't think we'd sign a right-back
⏳ Tosin Adarabioyo & Lloyd Kelly are heavily linked for this summer
7️⃣ Players transferred to other teams

1️⃣ out of 1️⃣9️⃣… Not good enough 😅

I can learn lessons from this. The Livramento & Hall deals were ‘Opportunistic’. #NUFC took the chance to sign top-class young homegrown talent ahead of their short-term needs.

They may choose to do this again, so I’m going to try & factor this into my thinking this year.

Like last year, I want this 🧵 to include as many realistic factors as possible, so I’m breaking things into 4️⃣ sections:

1️⃣ Potential Outgoings
2️⃣ Squad Planning
3️⃣ Recruitment Strategy
4️⃣ Transfer Targets for #NUFC

1️⃣ Potential Outgoings

Let’s start with players who are likely to leave #NUFC via loan, transfer or end of contract this summer:

Hendrick
Dummett
Ritchie
Karius
Hayden
Lewis
Dubravka
Fraser
Bondswell (Loan)
Ashby (Loan)
Kuol (Loan)

Next, are players that could leave #NUFC if an acceptable transfer offer is received this summer (reason):

Almiron (PSR)
Wilson (Age/Injuries)
Longstaff (PSR)
Targett (Injuries/PSR)
Guimarães (Release Clause)
Trippier (Age)
Schar (Age)
Minteh (Playing time)

2️⃣ Squad Planning

I expect there to be more #NUFC 1st team departures this season, but not so many that it would impact squad harmony - somewhere between 4️⃣ & 5️⃣

For this 🧵 I’m assuming Almiron, Wilson, Targett & Longstaff are sold, with a potential move for Guimarães too 😬

FWIW I dearly hope Guimarães stays 🤞but with a release clause in his contract & rumours of interest from PSG, Man City & Arsenal - it’s a real possibility that could impact #NUFC’s summer transfers.

In my squad plan, Miley & Anderson would compete for Longstaff’s minutes, leaving us with two scenarios:

1️⃣ Guimarães Stays: #NUFC add 5 players to cover, 6 positions

2️⃣ Guimarães is sold: We cover the loss with 1 (maybe 2) new midfielders & spend more £ on each position 🔽

If we do make it to Europe 🙏 the emergence of Miley (& White to a lesser extent) as a 1st team option makes meeting homegrown rules easier. A reminder:

For a full 25-man squad #NUFC Require 8 Homegrown players with 4 trained at #NUFC for 3 years between the ages of 15-21.

With that in mind, these are the positions I expect the #NUFC 1st-team to address:

◾ Backup GK
◾ Starting right CB
◾ Hybrid CB/full back
◾ Starting right winger
◾ 1st team striker
❓ A Central Midfielder (if Guimarães leaves)

Total Budget: £130-230m (depending on sales)

3️⃣ Recruitment Strategy

With the 5️⃣ or 6️⃣ positions to target identified, we now need to look at the profiles that #NUFC will look to bring in.

As I said last year, #NUFC’s appetite for perceived risk will continue to be low - Howe wants as much certainty as possible.

Given that around 50% of all transfers fail for non-footballing reasons e.g. Tonali (gambling) or Targett (injuries), It's an approach I agree with while we’re growing our revenues.

Too many costly mistakes could derail #NUFC’s attempts to bridge the gap to the ‘top six’.

So each of the players I’m going to put forward for a transfer to #NUFC should meet as many of the same criteria as last season:

4️⃣ Transfer Targets

For each position, I’ll use performance data alongside the profile above to help narrow my search and then make at least 3️⃣ recommendations 🥇, 🥈& 🥉 per position.

Players with sustained links with a move to #NUFC will be considered more seriously.

Backup GK

Over the past few months, Pope’s value has been obvious.

While he isn’t great with his feet, his sweeping & cross-claiming are good & he makes difficult saves look easier than they are. While that shoulder is a worry, I don’t see #NUFC signing a new 1st choice GK.

With that in mind, to find a GK willing to play second-fiddle who is stylistically similar to Pope, I’m using the following criteria:

0.2 Goals Saved Above Average & 🔼
65% Expected Save & 🔼
4% Clamable Collections Attempts over Average & 🔼
#NUFC

🥉James Trafford | £18-22m

Playing in a team fighting relegation is tough & that has proven to be the case for Trafford 🔵

Conceding 60 goals dented his confidence & the England U21 GK’s performances, but his time at Bolton 🔴 gives me confidence he’d bounce back at #NUFC

🥈 Sam Tickle | £3-6m

If Trafford would be buying the dip, a move for Tickle 🔴 would be the opposite.

Having been named as Wigan’s player of the season & earned a call-up to the England U21s Tickle looks ready for a season or two behind some established like Pope 🔵

🥇Emil Audero | £5-8m

On loan at Inter Milan from Sampdoria, Audero 🔴 has enough quality to be number 1️⃣ at a club in a top-five league.

Already playing as #2, he’s experienced, comfy playing behind a high line & passes better than Pope 🔵 #NUFC

Starting Right Centre Back

#NUFC need to add pace across the defensive line. If we can do so this summer, it will allow our back four to play a few yards higher up the pitch, reducing the space to the midfield & making us harder to play through.

However finding a player who is as dependable & good on the ball as Schar, but has pace & is also very strong in the air, isn’t as simple as it sounds. #NUFC

We’re looking for speedy centre backs with the following data profile:

Better expected header % (HOPS) than Schar (61)
Tack/Dribbled Past% = 70%+
PAdj Tackles & Interceptions = 2+
Pass On Ball Value (OBV) = 0.03+
Line Breaking Passes (LBP) = 5+

4️⃣ Jake O’Brien | £12-18m

One of Dougie Freeman’s less heralded finds, Irishman O’Brien 🔴 joined Lyon for £1.3m.

He’s tall & covers the ground well & HOPS % is 77, his passing is more Botman-like than Schar 🔵 A budget-friendly option for #NUFC

🥉 Tosin Adarabioyo | Free

Tosin 🔴 is a supreme athlete with pace & a HOPS % of 77%. While he bets on his physicality to get him out of trouble a tad too often, his passing is pretty well matched to Schar 🔵 & would open up more expensive deals elsewhere for #NUFC

🥈 Dayot Upamecano | £45m

The 🇫🇷 international’s stock has fallen after some high-profile mistakes, but Upamecano 🔴 has everything to improve #NUFC’s defence. Fast, good with the ball & a HOPS % of 68% makes him a true needle-moving upgrade to Schar 🔵

🥇 Max Kilman | £40m

IMHO #NUFC will firm up their reported interest in Max Kilman 🔴. Though left-footed, he plays as a right-sided CB, has good pace, a HOPS % of 73 & carries/passes the ball with ease. A near-prefect & low-risk replacement for Schar 🔵

Hybrid Central Defender/Fullback

The second defender #NUFC bring in is perhaps the hardest to predict. There is a version of the future in which they sign two CBs & Burn is trusted to start at left back - which I know would annoy nearly everyone 😅

Essentially, #NUFC are looking for a utility defender who can play at full-back/centre-back & raise the squad's level without blocking the development paths of Lewis Hall/Livramento.

4️⃣ Lloyd Kelly | Free

Heavily linked for a reunion with Howe, Kelly 🔵 is faster, a better 1 v1 defender and is more assured on the ball than Burn 🔴

However, with 3+ injuries each of the last two seasons, there is a real concern about his durability. #NUFC

🥉 Jacob Greaves | £15-20m

If Howe would like a younger/faster & more technically able version of Burn 🔴 then Jacob Greaves 🔵 fits the bill. At 23 he has the right mix of experience/potential, on the radar I’m using 22/23 data where both men played more minutes at full-back.

🥈 Joe Gomez | £35m

A costly option, but one that comes with the EPL & European experience Howe prizes. I’ve no doubt that if Slot makes him available Joe Gomez 🔵 will come into #NUFC’s thinking for his ability to cover the entire back line.

🥇 Riccardo Calafiori | £25-30m

Perhaps my favourite defender in this 🧵. Imagine if someone remade Schar 🔵 but added Aerial ability & pace, then you have Calafiori 🔴 Able to play both fullback & CB, his relative lack of EPL/Euro experience will discount him from #NUFC 😭

Free Transfer bonus deal 🤔

If #NUFC sign Tosin/Kelly, the low cost of the deals & their experience opens up the possibility of signing a younger CB to be eased into the team.

Though either would cost £50m+ Ousmane Diomande 🔵 & Georgio Scalvini 🔴 are outstanding prospects.

Right Winger
A long-neglected position for #NUFC are in need of a blue blood starter at the position.

Ideally, a pure creator as possible, but finding players with the right experience, height, speed & work ethic is a bit unicorn-ish atm.

Ideally, we’re looking for a player with the following performance markers:

Expected goals (xG) = 0.12+
xG Assisted (xGA) = 0.15+
Pressure regains = 2+
Dribble & Carry OBV = 0.05+
Final third LBP = 2+

#NUFC

4️⃣ David Brooks | £10m

Too short (173cm), but should #NUFC decide to cash in on Jacob Murphy 🔵 then David Brooks 🔴 would tick a lot of boxes.

He's currently on loan at Southampton where he has 5 assists & 2 goals, his career at Bournemouth seems over & Howe is an admirer.

🥉 Francisco Trincão | £20-25m

While I’m not 100% he grafts enough without the ball, in every other aspect Trincão 🔴 fits #NUFC’s profile: ✅ height, ✅ pace, ✅ EPL experience & ✅ talent. On loan at Sporting from Barcelona, he’s a player reborn after his spell at Wolves.

🥈 Bryan Mbeumo | £40m

While his creation numbers & height aren’t there, Mbeumo’s 🔴 track record in the EPL makes this move as close to a no-brainer as it gets for me.

Like Gordon, in a better team, I’d back his already good output to improve. I want him at #NUFC

🥇 Michael Olise | £60m

Let’s be honest. Every man and his dog will want Olise 🔴 this summer & while I think #NUFC’s chances of landing him hinge on price/how worried the top 6 are about his durability - he’s a perfect creator for our front 3️⃣

Strikers

IF #NUFC decides it’s time to move on from Wilson, replacing him is probably going to involve accepting more risk/compromise than any other position in this 🧵

Ask yourself this, how many top-class strikers will be willing to sit behind Isak?

Data-wise, this is pretty simple we need someone who is a menace:

Expected goals (xG) = 0.30+
Post-Shot xG = 0.30+
xG Assisted (xGA) = 0.05+
Pressure regains = 1+

#NUFC

4️⃣ Rafiu Adekunle Durosinmi | £10m

You might not have heard of Durosinmi 🔴 but he’s a player who before a knee injury nearly moved to the Bundesliga last summer.

He’s still raw & gives the ball away too much but also Osimhen-esq. An exciting project #NUFC

🥉Tammy Abraham | £18-25m

Having just returned from an ACL tear, Tammy Abraham’s 🔴 stock is a little low.

At 26, with good pace, height & EPL experience, he’s a cheaper alternative to Solanke who would probably be okay with 20-ish starts across a season at #NUFC

🥈Jonathon David | £45m

If you’d like your striker to profile similarly to Isak 🔵 AND be able to play across the front three, then Jonathon David 🔴 is the target for you.

I do think David will probably want to be the obvious 1st choice at his next club though.

🥇Benjamin Šeško | £45-60m ? 🤷‍♂️

Šeško’s 🔴 agent was on Tyneside the summer we signed Isak & #NUFC are still interested. About to turn 21, he's is a powerhouse similar in build to Haaland, has a high cruising speed lovely touch & can finish off either foot. Scary potential.

Versatile Central Midfielder

Finding a like-for-like replacement for Guimarães is not easy. In many ways it would make sense for #NUFC to replace him with two midfielders - but that would limit the minutes for Miley/Anderson - whose development is key in the medium term.

In terms of performance markers, we need evidence of press resistance, work rate & creative passing:

Pass under pressure % change = -5 or better
Dribble & Carry OBV = 0.05+
Padj Pressures = 15+
Deep progressions = 4+
Line-breaking passes (LBP) = 6+

#NUFC

🥉Rocco Reitz | £25m

Having just signed a new deal at Mönchengladbach, Reitz 🔵 will probably wait another season before moving, but he’s Guimarães-esq 🔴 in the way he moves and avoids tackles.

He [probably needs more time in the oven before he’s ready for the EPL.

🥈Amadou Onana | £50m

Extensively linked with #NUFC for months, Onana’s 🔵 performance has been good overall.

Though sometimes he has let his head drop, I’d back Howe to bring out the best of a player who offers more physicality than Guimarães 🔴

🥇Conner Gallagher | £35-45m

Howe’s ideal midfielder. Gallagher 🔴 works SO HARD, has an eye for goal & can play any of #NUFC's midfielder roles & on the wing - though I see him on the right of the 3 & Tonali central. With Just a year left on his deal, it’s now or never.

Bonus midfielder
Another bonus round 🙌 IF Guimarães is sold, I can see #NUFC taking a swing on a youngster who’s a potentially elite player alongside a more first-team-ready transfer.

I have one name in mind who has been heavily linked - Désiré Doué 🔵 👀

Opportunistic Deals

Finally (sorry it’s been so long) we have a mini round robin of U18 talents that I think #NUFC will sign IF the opportunity should present itself. They are:

◾Archie Gray
◾Christopher Rigg
◾Roger Fernandes
◾George Ilenikhena

With that, we’re at the end of this 🧵 Sorry it was so long & thanks to those who read it all.

This summer really hinges on whether we sell Bruno or sign a Free Transfers (or two)

If either/both things happen, then this summer could be transformative for the #NUFC squad.