Thread by @Milatrud11

The looming threat: A resurgence of Islamic State [IS/ISSP] and inter-clan fighting in Somalia:
ACLED records 395 political violence events and 1,082 reported fatalities from 1 Jun to 26 Jul 2024. Most in the Lower Shabelle region.

265 battles. acleddata.com/2024/07/31/the…

1b) "Despite this increasing threat that the Somalia branch of IS [ISSP] is reported to represent regionally and globally, reports indicate that the group has between 100 and 400 fighters, largely operating in the northeastern Puntland state."
2024:10 events

1bb)Somalia:Despite the presence of al-Shabaab, IS has also increased its influence in Bosaso and the surrounding villages in Qandala district.
One factor has facilitated this:Qandala district is home to the Ali Saleban,a sub-clan of the Majeerten clan, from which Mumin hails.

1bbb)Somalia:To finance its battle for control of the strategic areas in Puntland, IS[ISSP]has increased its monthly payments from businesses:
These‘taxes.’ r used to pay fighters and support the group’s activities,incl recruitment.
Those who delay or refuse to pay face violence

2)
"IntelBrief: Growing Islamic State-Somalia Transnational Threat"
"A series of arrests over the past few months signal IS-S’s growing support base and networks in Sweden, while has also been linked to at least one case in Italy."
ISKP,Muminthesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-202…

3) Islamic State Resurgence in Somalia: An Assessment:
"Key Judgement 1. The Islamic State is likely to transform into the primary threat to government forces and civilian population in Puntland State in the near future."

--[$) ISgreydynamics.com/islamic-state-…

4) "Islamic State-Somalia: A Growing Global Terror Concern" |Caleb Weiss, Lucas Webber IS,Muminctc.westpoint.edu/islamic-state-…

5) The Islamic State in Somalia: Responding to an Evolving Threat:
An IS branch has acquired a foothold in Puntland, and has been channelling funds to the jihadist network’s other African affiliates (in Cabo Delgado, Congo) Mumincrisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…

6) Exclusive: AFRICOM Chief Gen. Michael Langley says Islamic State doubles size in north Somalia`s Puntland:
the group’s had grown about “twofold” in the past year. Previous estimates have put the number of IS fighters at about 200 fighters.
voanews.com/a/exclusive-af…

6b) Leader of IS Somalia, Mumin, appears to have survived the US strike in May 2024:

Asked whether Mumin,was now the global leader of IS, AFRICOM Chief Langley said the US must take those reports as “credible.”:
“ISIS professes that.
Sometimes you’ve got to take that seriously,”

7) New report by the UN Sanctions Monitoring Team for Somalia:
Foreign fighters flocking to Islamic State in Somalia: its seize have more than double to between 600 and 700.
They have come from Syria,Yemen,Ethiopia,Sudan, Morocco,Tanzania.
| Jeff Seldin ISvoanews.com/a/foreign-figh…

7b)IS-Somalia,according to the UN report,is now being led by Mumin's former deputy,Abdirahman Fahiye Isse, with Abdiwali Waran-Walac running IS-Somalia's finances

"the group can sustain itself and generate additional revenue for other[IS]affiliates through the al-Karrar office"

8) IS Somalia (ISS):
The quiet financier: Islamic State's elusive strongman:
His orange henna-dyed beard and striking eyewear would make him easy to pick out in a crowd, but Puntland-based Abdul Qadir Mumin has remained elusive. ISfrance24.com/en/live-news/2…

8b) Abdul Qadir Mumin may already be running IS's General Directorate of Provinces (GDP) from Somalia.
"He [Puntland-based Mumin] is the most important person, the most powerful one, he is the one controlling the global Islamic State network,": Tore Hamming(ICSR).

8c)Hamming(ICSR):"Somalia is important for financial reasons,"
"We know that they send money to Congo,to Mozambique,to South Africa,to Yemen,to Afghanistan. So they have a good business model going."

The transactions are so shadowy that even estimating the amounts is impossible

8d)Mumin's rise to the top,despite the small number of fighters in Puntland,also reflects two internal dynamics within IS.
Tore Hamming:
1-"the caliph is no longer the most important person in the Islamic State".
2-IS is indeed pursuing a gradual strategic shift toward Africa.

8e)EU intel official:"[Mumin]controls a small territory but has a big appeal.
He distributes volunteers and money,"
An IS attack in May 2024 in Cabo Delgado(MOZ)"was carried out by Maghreb and African militants"
"90% of violent images on jihad consumed in Europe come from Africa"

9) ISS carried out its most complex attack in Somalia yet on Dec 31,2024.
IS Somalia likely conducted the attack to disrupt the Puntland govt’s ability to carry out a counter-ISS offensive.
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/a…

9c)Somalia:ISS generates millions of dollars per year in extortion and illegal taxes and takes advantage of ungoverned,mountainous areas in Puntland to act as a logistic node and disperse funding and trainers around the world,incl to ISKP, Congo(ADF), Mozambique(ISM/ISCAP)Yemen

9cc)UN Oct 2024 report:ISS has 600 to 700 fighters(2023:200-250).
There are “significant” numbers of foreign fighters in IS Somalia and that many ISS trainers are from the ME
Puntland arrested dozens of them from Ethiopia,Morocco,Sudan,Syria,Tanzania,UAE,Yemen since 2023

10) EI Somalie en Puntland:

"La branche somalienne de l’organisation État islamique occupe une place de plus en plus importante sur l’échiquier du jihadisme mondial."

ISrfi.fr/fr/afrique/202…

11)Somalia: Security forces said they killed several Islamic State (IS/ISS) fighters and seized eight jihadist outposts during ongoing military operations in the semi-autonomous Puntland region. barrons.com/news/several-i…

12)IS in Somalia: Over 20 were killed and 10+ others wounded during fighting between Islamic State fighters and Puntland security forces in near the Ufeyn area and the Cal Miskat mountains,Bari region,on Jan 19 and Jan 20,2025:
15 ISS fighters
7 soldiers voanews.com/a/over-20-kill…

13) Somalia: Puntland Army Takes IS ‘Strategic Mountain Base’,: Turmasaale:
“The terrorists were controlling this township for a long period, and it was very important for their movements and connecting to the various locations where they are based,” ISSthedefensepost.com/2025/01/25/pun…

14)"No Simcards for Unregistered and Without Permit Foreigners," Puntland Ministry of Interior.
With more and more Syrian and Central Asian suspected ISIS terrorists roaming in Puntland and throughout Somalia,() Puntland issues the following orders: IS,ISS

15)"WHAT DO SOMALIA AND SYRIAN HAVE IN COMMON," SOMALI PEOPLE ASK
()Turkey is involved in both countries, and both countries are invaded by Turkey-supported ISIS foot soldiers from Central Asia (Turkic peoples), Mongolians, and Uyghurs (East Turkestan)."

16) s. also 14)
Somalia: Puntland bans illegal foreign entry as its forces combat ISIS/ISS in Al-Miskaad mountains in the Bari region ISallafrica.com/stories/202501…

17) Trump says he “ordered precision military airstrikes” on a “senior ISIS attack planner & other terrorists” in Somalia.
Airstrikes were in the Qandala and Bari region of Puntland.
--
IS Somalia (ISS/ISSP)

via Vineet

17b)Somalia: Trump airstrikes target ‘senior IS attack planner’ in Puntland`s Golis Mountains

The US secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, indicated multiple jihadists were killed and no civilians were harmed ISS/ISSPtheguardian.com/world/2025/feb…

17bb) Somalia: US Luftangriffe auf den IS in den Golis Bergen in Puntland am 1. Feb 2025:

lt Garowe Online: 48 getötet
Dass ISS-Führer Mumin getötet wurde, glaube ich nichttaz.de/Getoeteter-IS-…

18)Somalia: Senior ISIS terrorist surrenders to Puntland security forces on Feb 3,2025:
Abdirahman Shirwac, also known as Lahoor, was a member of terrorist group al-Shabaab before joining IS ISS/ISSPaa.com.tr/en/africa/seni…

18b)Somalia: Senior IS operative Abdirahman Shirwac Aw-Saciid,alias “Laahoor”, head of IS’ s assassination squad, surrendered to authorities on Feb 3,2025 in the Cal Miskaad mountains,Puntland state.
Transcription of the name is-as often-differentaljazeera.com/news/2025/2/3/…

19)Somalia: Scores killed in Puntland in clash between security forces, Islamic State on Feb 4-5:
15+ Puntland soldiers and 57+ IS fighters were slain in the fierce fighting around the Dharin and Qurac areas of the Cal Miskaad mountains in Bari region ISSvoanews.com/a/scores-kille…

20) s.a. 17)
Somalia: US, UAE conducting airstrikes against the IS in Puntland:
US in the Golis Mountains on Feb 1, 2025.
UAE: in the Cal Miskaat Mountains on Feb 2.
In the Togga Jacayl area within the same mountain range on Feb 4 ISS, ISSPlongwarjournal.org/archives/2025/…

21) "Islamic State (ISIS) Somalia Province Claims Killing, Wounding Over 100 In Clashes With Puntland Security Forces In Somalia's Bari Province"--($) ISS/ISSPmemri.org/jttm/islamic-s…

22)Somalia:
Airstrike kills over 13 foreign IS fighters "in the Dhasaq area, which is part of the Calmiskaad mountain range,”in Puntland.
Puntland security forces on Feb 10,2025 say terrorists were killed during operation that lasted 24 hours ISSaa.com.tr/en/africa/airs…

22b)C.Weiss
"The amount of suicide bombers that IS Somalia is using as defense against the Puntland offensive is somewhat reminiscent of its earlier showdowns,like Mosul,when that became its main defensive tactic.
Just today another 15+ used,bringing the total to~32 since Dec.31"

23)Somalia: Nearly 100 were killed and up to 60 others wounded when Islamic State launched a deadly attack on a military base around the Togga Jacel area of the Cal Miskaad mountains in Puntland’s Bari region,officials on Feb 11,2025:
27+soldiers,
70+ ISS voanews.com/a/scores-dead-…

24)Key Islamic State planner, Oman-born Ahmed Maeleninine, 13 other ISS operatives killed in airstrike on Feb 1,2024:
AFRICOM:"recruiter,financier,and external operations leader responsible for the deployment of jihadists into the[US]and across Europe."
voanews.com/a/key-islamic-…

25)„WaPo“:Somalia ist das neue operative u finanzielle Zentrum des Islamischen Staates

Quellen:„große Zahl ausländischer Kämpfer“sei in Puntland eingetroffen:"gewaltige Streitmacht beigetragen,die heute eine Bedrohung für westliche Ziele darstellt“. ISS,ISagenzianova.com/de/news/washin…

26)UNSC report (24 p):
page 9: IS Somalia in Puntland:
"Member States assessed that Abdul Qadir Mumin (not listed) remained the head of ISIL (Da’esh) in Somalia and the Al-Karrar office.
Mumin operated from strongholds in Buur Dhexaad, "
ISS / docs.un.org/en/S/2025/71

27)A report issued this week by the UN Sanctions Monitoring Team, based on U.N. member state intelligence, said there is
“growing confidence” that the IS caliph is
Abdul Qadir Mumin, who also heads the terror group’s branch in Somalia`s Puntland. ISSvoanews.com/a/intelligence…

28) Combating the Islamic State Finance: Somalia and the Pan-African Nexus.
According to the UN, the Islamic State’s most successful regional financial offices include al-Karrar, al-Furqan, and al-Siddiq.

Part One: al-Karrar.
IS,ISSgnet-research.org/2025/02/17/com…

29)Somalia: “Operation Lightning”:US,UAE:

"On Sunday [Feb 17,2025], the Puntland Counter- Terrorism Command confirmed UAE- powered airstrikes Darar-Madoobe area in Cal-Miskaad, killing more than 12 terrorists, including senior members of ISIS."


IS,ISS

29b)Somalia:
US and UAE airstrikes against Islamic State in Puntland kills 16 militants,incl 2 senior members identified as IS’s bomb-makers.
The strikes targeted Godka Kunle and Xankookin villages in the Cal Miskaad mountainrange in Bari region.
ISSvoanews.com/a/somali-offic…

30)"Islamic State (ISIS) Weekly Claims 330 Casualties Among Puntland Security Forces In Northeastern Somalia Over A Week" ---($) IS,ISSmemri.org/jttm/islamic-s…

31)Intelbrief by The Soufan Center:
Islamic State Somalia Remains a Potent Threat in the Horn of Africa and Beyond:
The revenues made by IS-S have been funneled through the Al-Karrar office to other Africa-based IS branches as well as ISKP ISS,Puntlandthesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-202…

32)Somalia: The New Frontline in the Islamic State’s Global Expansion | Mustafa Hasan Puntland, ISS-IS-Swashingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

33) Islamic State in retreat after offensive in Somalia's Puntland:
Somali officials:IS fighters have fled, breaking into three groups:
-~100 to Karinka Qandala,
-Two larger groups fled to Tog Miraale(west) and Tog Curaar(northwest).
ISS, IS-Somaliavoanews.com/a/islamic-stat…

34) 2nd post:
"Ansar Allah (Houthis)’s Expansion into Somalia:
The Yemeni group,like its main backer Iran,has established contacts with al-Shabaab and ISS, showing how pragmatism prevails()and all sides share an enmity for the US and Israel. IS,Huthiscarnegieendowment.org/research/2025/…

35) Islamic State in Somalia: the terrorist group’s origins, rise and recent battlefield defeats | Stig Jarle Hansen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences IS,ISS,Puntland,Mumin (Muumin)theconversation.com/islamic-state-…

36)Somalia:
At least one Puntland soldier was killed, and nine others were injured in an attack by ISIS/IS militants in the Xabley area of Ufayn district ISScounteriedreport.com/somalia-isis-a…

37)Somalia:
Source:Shabelle:
US Africa Command (AFRICOM) and Somali govt forces have conducted a joint operation (airstrikes) targeting ISIS militants in the Calmiskaad Mountains of the Bari region in Puntland on Mar 25,2025:
7 IS fighters killed allafrica.com/stories/202503…

37b)Somalia: ISIS/IS extremists leave foreign passports behind after raid in the Golis Mountain range in Puntland, Somalia ISStheeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-…

@threadreaderapp Unroll, please.

Puntland,ISS