🧵 Well, not exactly. They actually clearly revealed how their thumb is on the scale and proved my point from the last round.
Let’s discuss:
In Georgia alone, NYT/Siena did it right this time.
They have a dead even split between Trump and Biden on the recalled 2020 vote.
Poll Result: Amongst registered voters, 🔴 Trump +7 (51-44) on 2024 head-to-head ballot in Georgia.
In Arizona & Nevada, their recalled 2020 vote between Trump & Biden looks nothing like 2020’s reported result.
If they did, the result would be:
AZ 🔴 Trump +3 (50-47)
NV 🔴 Trump +9 (53-44).
AZ 🔴 Trump +3
(Recalled 2020 Biden +7 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +0 = Trump +7 Gap)
Harris +4 on NYT/Siena ballot vs. Trump +7 reality gap = true Trump +3.
NV 🔴 Trump +9
(Recalled 2020 Biden +9 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +2 = Trump +7 Gap)
Trump +2 on NYT/Sienna ballot vs. Trump +7 reality gap = true Trump +9.
🔴 GA Trump +7
(Recalled 2020 Biden +0 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +0 = Trump +0 Gap)
Trump +7 on NYT/Sienna ballot vs. Trump +0 reality gap = true Trump +7.
Despite their understatement of President Trump’s 2020 support in these key states and an unrepresentative weighting scheme relative to their EV weights between the states surveyed, Trump still:
✅ Consistently over performs among black voters & age 18-29 voters.
✅ Trump has better fidelity amongst Registered Republicans AND 2020 supporters than Kamala does among registered Democrats and Biden 2020 voters.
🚨 Reminder, 4 days before the 2020 election, NYT/Siena polls had Trump trailing in Arizona by 6 (49-43), and eight days before the 2020 election they have President Trump trailing in Nevada by 6 (49-43).
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