Thread by @kamilkazani

Wagner march was incredible, unprecedented to the extent most foreigners simply do not understand. Like, yes, Russia had its military coups in the 18th c. But those were the palace coups, all done by the Guards. Purely praetorian business with zero participation of the army.

Yes, there was a Kornilov affair in 1917, but that happened after the coup in capital. In March they overthrew the Tsar, then there was infighting in the capital, including a Bolshevik revolt in July, and only in September part of the army marches to St Petersburg.

Half a year after the coup. Not the same thing

I think the last time anything like that happened was in 1698, when the Musketeers marched on Moscow from the Western border. And then, next time, only in 2023.

(Army leaves the border/battlefield and marches on the capital without a previous praetorian coup in the capital)

One explanation could be:

Since 1917, Soviet/Russian leadership relied upon state security to control the army, control over army being *the* one true purpose of state security, and state security being *the* one true mechanism of controlling the military.

This, however, created an element of overreliance upon state security. Therefore, some (very limited) part of the military structure was largely relieved from the state security control, so that it could be used as a counterweight against state security, just in case.

That included the military intelligence (GRU) with its Special Forces. They were uniquely positioned as the military less controllable by the KGB, less permeated by the KGB, and less answerable to the KGB.

(so they could be used against the KGB, should the necessity arise)

Original Wagner group was a small (once again, small) mercenary unit that originated from the GRU Special forces. From the very beginning, it was way freer from the state security control compared to the normal army.

Which was not a big deal as long it was small.

In the beginning, it was just a team of assassins doing the dirty (= hitman) job in Donbass et cetera. Just dozens of gunmen. Not a big deal. Then hundreds. Again, not a big deal. Syria, Lybia. They gradually grew and their reserve (veterans not in active service) grew as well.

In the course of their expansion, they have largely avoided infiltration by the state security. Based on this book, Wagners were ready to recruit anyone. The military. The police. People with unconventional tracks (= e.g. French Foreign Legion)

Anyone, EXCEPT FOR THE FSB

It is noteworthy that normally the Wagners recruited anyone. The regular police. Prison guards. Drug enforcement. Customs officers. Foreign mercenaries. They overall were not very picky.

They just never recruited from the FSB. One and only exception.

Which makes sense. The FSB is the agency created to spy on and control the military. Therefore, recruiting from the FSB you will fill your ranks with spies, agents and commissaries. Obviously, if your recruitment policy is up to you, you will never recruit anyone from there.

Now the thing is. Normal, regular military do not have any choice on whether to fill their ranks with spymasters and commissaries or not. State security guys are forced upon them, no exceptions (including on the command positions). Otherwise, they could grow uncontrollable.

Wagners, however, used to be a small hitman unit in a direct contact with the upper political leadership.

Small -> Unimportant
Direct contact -> Can ask for special favours

More like one extra group of thugs directly controlled by Kremlin. Small group, most importantly.

But they grew, grew, grew and after 2022 just exploded in numbers, becoming effectively an army corps with heavy weaponry, own airforce, air defence, etc.

Step by step, iteration by iteration. All of that apparently went without any serious infiltration by the state security.

So by summer 2023 you had a large army corps with heavy (incl. air defence) equipment and with little if any regular control. And so, the impossible happened.

Were they stationed near Moscow, they might have won. They were simply too far away, in my opinion.

What is particularly interesting here is the consequences. Or rather, the absence of consequences. 1698 was followed by the mass executions of rebel musketeers. 2023 was not followed by anything comparable

Prigozhin, the military commander Utkin, few mercenaries. And that's it

Implying there are tens of thousands fellows who participated in an attempted military coup, who are very much alive and often serving in various armed units, in various capacities. That includes both regular soldiers and their commanders.