Thread by @tbonier

A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there.

1) It is still quite early. The total turnout so far is just 25% of the final early vote in 2020, and 38% of the 2022 early vote. We're going to see a lot more votes cast there, and the numbers will move around during that time.

2) We may just be overreacting to a different sequencing of when the votes are cast. In 2020 at this point the Dem turnout % was 3% higher than the GOP turnout %, but by the time early voting ended, the GOP turnout was 5 pts higher. That's a big swing. Compare that to...

right now, where the Dem turnout lags the GOP by just 3.5%, a narrower turnout deficit than where things ended up in 2020.

From a demographic perspective, things look a bit better for Dems. Both AAPI and Black voters are accounting for a larger share of the early vote in NV than they did at this point in 2020.

All of this said, the GOP is undeniably accounting for a larger share of the early vote than they did in 2020 at this point. But that vote mode switching was expected post-pandemic and it doesn't appear at this point that the numbers we're seeing are a clear win for either side.

One more point on NV - we look at the early vote to determine if there are signs of intensity among either party. Are they turning out new voters? Given that Dems won in 2020, the GOP needs either more new voters or more crossover voters to win.

Well, in NV, the answer is no. Only 2.4% of early voting GOPs are first time voters. Compare that to 8.5% at this point in 2020.

@imjdsharp Btw, I just looked this up for you. In NV, a whopping 2.4% of GOPs who have voted already are first time voters. Congratulations, that's... not a big number.