Thread by @LevanKvirkvelia

RIGGED ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA 🇬🇪

I've spent the last 48 hours proving fraud in the Georgian elections.

Let me show you the evidence in 2 charts.

Chart 1: Russian tail...

Every dot on the chart above shows how many locations (y) had X% of votes for the gov.

Voting results typically follow a bell curve🔔—this is called a normal distribution.

Any deviation from this pattern needs explanation

Here's Poland as an example.

In urban areas, voting results are mostly around the average, suggesting fair elections there.

Now, in the rural areas, there's an unusual 'tail' on the right, hinting at fraud, often called the 'Russian tail.'

This pattern suggests ballots were stuffed or miscounted.

Approximately 400 locations show unusually high support for the government.

It is virtually impossible for so many locations to naturally produce such a sharp spike, rather than a smooth trend.

Chart 2: A Closer Look

Each dot is a voting place.
Y: % of !registered voters! who supported the party
X: % of registered voters who voted (turnout)

Dots can't go above the black diagonal line because you can't get more votes than voters who showed up!

If a candidate has 30% support, then typically for every 100 people who show up, about 30 vote for them.

That is why you expect dots to cluster around y=support% * turnout -- again it is normal distribution!

And this exactly what we see in urban areas

In rural areas the ruling party has many data points deviating significantly from the trend line.

In hundreds of small and large locations, 100 voters show up, and all 100 vote for the ruling party—a scenario that is almost unreal in fair elections

What if the party just has a lot of support?

Well, fortunately, we have overseas votes, and we can see how the data is distributed when one side has overwhelming support.

The points shouldn’t stray too far away.

This data provides solid evidence supporting the argument of ballot stuffing/miscounting.

This manipulation occurred exclusively in rural areas, and we can say that the ruling party committed electoral fraud.

For this report we labeled 3,500 reports to gather the turnout data.

Shoutout to my friend for his help with this.

And a huge thanks to @romanik_ for verifying the results and finding more compelling ways to illustrate the fraud in the data.

@Zourabichvili_S @CoalitionGEO @Zuraja @KShoshiashvili @Mikiashvili_M @terjehelland @geomel_ge @AnnaGvarishvili @kandelakigiorgi

You might want to have this at the protest

A figma link to export
figma.com/design/aY6r1vf…