Thread by @ever_verdant

it turns out there's a small town in japan called nagi, whose birth rate (~2.7) is over twice the national average (~1.3)

what is this town doing to buck the trend?

as many know, japan's fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world, around ~1.3

the japanese government has adopted various measures to combat this, including cash subsidies, pro-natalist nods from the prime minister, & even reviving traditional matchmaking services

like many towns in japan, nagi was quickly shrinking in the 2000s, due to both low birth rate and emigration to cities

in response, the town of ~6,000 pooled its funding into a childrearing-centered revitalization program, including a large multigenerational daycare center

other local policies include monetary rewards for getting married and having children, along with smaller day-to-day expenses like carseats and babysitting

they also boast affordable housing in the scenic okayama prefecture

whoa, 47% of households have 3+ children!

the town describes its culture as very child-friendly

volunteers run nurseries to take care of children, advice is generously shared among parents, and the townspeople enthusiastically claim to accommodate children in public places

so, why is this working?

we know from examples in wealthy countries like norway and iceland that lavish childcare spending does not inherently increase birth rate

a skeptical explanation is that nagi is just attracting people who want to have a lot of kids, rather than causing the high birth rate through policies

i don't know if there are any stats about birth rate from natives vs newcomers, but that might tell an interesting story

but also, i wonder if the reason that pro-child-rearing policies are usually unsuccessful not because they don't work, but they only work if the underlying culture is already dedicated to children

i.e. the biggest hurdle is finding people who want to have children, but once you find them, the incentives of these policies can actually work

maybe they have to take place within a context where community bonds can form (small towns or tight-knit cities, e.g. hasidic brooklyn)

whatever the case, maybe this is what the future of high birth rates looks like? spatterings of communities with many children, which attract like-minded people, like tribes assorting themselves into bands

time will tell!

article source ~>

here are some open questions:
- is this an expected outlier because of the high variance of small towns?
- are there any other towns like this?
- will this last more than one generation or will it dissolve like the 1950s baby boom?

- what kind of religious or demographic features does this town have? (i couldn't find much information in english)
- what is the level of wealth in the area?