Thread by @RadioFreeTom

So, a few words about this new Russian nuclear doctrine, but here's the short version: It's not a doctrine, it's a ploy.
/1

The old Soviet Union had a formal military doctrine, and it mattered. (Trust me. Wrote my doctoral dissertation and first book on it.) It mattered because the regime believed in ideology, and in conforming its policies to ideology and communicating that to its institutions. /2

Soviet military doctrine was a means of intra-elite communication and policy guidance. Yes, some of it was just bullshit, but it was a real thing that was meant to make the various parts of the USSR defense world (strategy, industry, etc) fly in formation. /3

Soviet military doctrine was meant to set the limits and contours of debate around national defense - and to make sure no one wandered off the ideological reservation. It was not a set of ironclad rules, but a way of setting parameters on national security stuff. /4

Putin's Russia isn't an ideological state. It has no need of "doctrine." It's a mafia state run by thugs. "Doctrine" is whatever Putin wants to do at any given moment. So don't fall for some "new doctrine" as if it's a trigger or red line that Putin will have to observe. /5

Putin wants you to believe that if it's a new "doctrine," that anything that happens will automatically force him to follow his own rules and then have to do something terrible.
That's not a doctrine, that's just bullshit nuclear Calvinball. /6

This doesn't mean Putin isn't dangerous, it just means that he's dangerous because he's vain and emotional and capricious. Putin's "doctrines" are like Tony Soprano having a "doctrine" for running his family. Don't get wrapped in what amounts to a Kremlin messaging op. /7x