Short Course 1 from #iedm24 today. TSMC giving some detail about the state of the industry. Some highlights.
#1 3D Stacking is expected to go to 3 micron pitch by 2027.
#2 A16-based AI accelerators in 2027 with CoWoS-L and 12xHBM4. But even those 2025/2026 designs look cool - six compute die, 12xHBM3e. Next gen MI400 from AMD maybe?
#3 WiFi 8 to show life in 2027/2028. WiFi 8 at 10 Gbps may need as much as 30 TOPs and TSMC N4 to achieve peak perf. Could do it in N16, but big chip with lots of power.
Sucks that still so much WiFi 4 will still be being installed.
#4 Chiplet based smartphone SoCs are coming. DRAM goes on the side.
#5 The prolific use of interposers will move integrated voltage regulators to that interposer - both inductors and PMICs.
Intel kind of already does this with some generations of server CPUs - package on package designs.
#6 Big gains in the N2 era. GAAFETs rule
#7 In 2027, 50%+ of smartphones will have a >38 TOPs NPU on board - but less than 30% of notebooks.
#8 General server TAM will remain stagnant until 2027. AI Server TAM will grow 39% CAGR 22-27. Unit CAGR is 73%.
#9 Optical I/O / co-packaged optics are coming.
#10 HBM and CoWoS will come to automotive. Sounds somewhat insane, but here we are.
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