Thread by @boris_beissner

What has #russia lost with the fall of the Assad regime in #Syria?

Russia's defeat in Syria and the fall of the Assad regime is not just a blow to Putin's reputation. It is more complex. So let's go through the points that Russia has lost along with Assad.

Firstly, the potential gains. Can the Russian forces from Syria strengthen the occupying army in Ukraine? No, these forces cannot significantly influence the course of the war in Ukraine.

Most of the Russian troops in Syria are specialists in aviation, air defence and technical units, which are poorly suited to the needs on the front here. And there are certain problems with the evacuation of equipment there.

And yes, the migration of forces and resources from Syria to Ukraine was one of the reasons for the rapid collapse of Assad. 

And now to the losses.

Loss of role in the Middle East. Russia has largely lost its status as a major player, as Syria was its most important ally in the region.

Without the Assad regime, it will be difficult for Russia to influence important countries in the region (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel).

Russia has also lost its role as a counterweight to the US in the region, which strengthens the position of Washington and its allies (Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates).

The loss of the strategic military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim (which has not yet occurred but is very likely to happen in the near future) means the loss of a logistical hub for building a Russian presence in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and Africa.

Almost all operations in Africa were conducted through Syrian hubs. Now Russia has definitely lost the ability to respond quickly to conflicts in the region.

Economic losses. Russia has invested billions of dollars in supporting Assad in the hope of long-term economic benefits.

- Fertilisers. Russian companies have mined phosphates in Syria. One of the largest phosphate deposits in the world is located there, and phosphates are an important component of global food security.

- Crude oil. The company Stroytransgaz (controlled by Gennady Timchenko) has obtained the rights to develop important oil and gas fields in Syria. 
- Logistics. In 2019, Russia signed a 49-year lease agreement for the seaport of Tartus.

This port was to be used as a logistics centre for trade, the transport of resources and military operations.

- The collapse of the regional narcotics trade. Syria was a centre for the production of phenethylene, also known as Captagon, a synthetic substance that was then transported to Europe and the Middle East. Russia was a "stakeholder" in this flow.

Now this source of money for Russia will dry up.

The growing influence of Erdogan and the weakening of Iran's role will also affect Tehran's and Moscow's energy policy ambitions. Iran has lost an important partner, which reduces its influence in the Middle East.

The Iranian armed forces have already been effectively withdrawn from the country and the government in Tehran is negotiating with the Sunnis in Syria over the security of the Shiites, which is the maximum of its options.

Erdogan will now control almost all the oil and gas routes to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. 

Europe will be able to breathe freely. Russia has lost its instrument with which it can blackmail the EU by controlling the movement of people and energy resources.

Russia planned to use Syria to transport oil and gas to the Mediterranean, which would give it access to European markets. The instrument of putting pressure on Europe by fuelling migration crises has also disappeared.

All of this is a sign of the decline of Russia's global influence. The fall of Assad has discredited Russia as a reliable partner for other dictatorships. The collapse of the regime within a few weeks has shown that Moscow is unable to effectively maintain its assets.

The collapse of the Syrian project has further destroyed the myth of Russia's "invincibility" and highlighted the country's limited global influence.

Syria was an important lever for Russia in its negotiations with the West, including on the Ukraine issue.

And no matter what the Russian theorists and Trump say, everything that has happened is evidence of Russia's actual capabilities, which have declined significantly over the years.And no "ceasefire" in Ukraine, even if it materialises, will save Putin's regime.