Thread by @Marc_Vanguard_i

🚨 THREAD: Immigration & crime 🇩🇪

👉 Did you know that African immigrants are 8 times more likely to be implicated in crimes than German citizens in Germany?

I’ve analyzed more than 10 million data points spanning 5 years on suspects' profiles in this must-bookmark thread 🧵⬇️

1⃣ INTRODUCTION

🔴 Foreigners are overrepresented among those implicated in crimes in Germany.

While they make up 13% of the population*, they represent a significant share of offenses.
🔪 Homicides: 42%
🔞 Rapes: 37%
👊 Assaults: 32%
🏘️ Burglaries: 39%

*2017-2021 average

👉 Certain citizenships are particularly overrepresented among those implicated in crimes (e.g., North & Central Africa).

👉 In contrast, populations from many countries (e.g., East Asia) exhibit crime rates comparable to or even lower than those of Germans ⬇️

👉 Maghreb foreign nationals are proportionally 9 times more likely to be implicated in crimes and offenses than Germans.

👉 In contrast, the crime rate among East Asian citizens is comparable to that of Germans ⬇️

2⃣ VIOLENCE

German police also provides detailed data for each type of offense.

👉 Let’s begin with violent crimes, starting with assaults ⬇️

It can be observed that foreigners from certain citizenships are particularly implicated in violent assaults.

👉 For this type of offense, the crime rate among Maghrebi foreigners in Germany is 9 times higher than that of German nationals. ⬇️

- Quick parenthesis in this thread -

I am the international account of @marc_vanguard , the #1 French-speaking account primarily focused on immigration statistics, with over 800 charts published on the topic.

👉 Follow me for more data 👈

Now, let’s continue ⬇️

For acts of property damage, the pattern mirrors that of violent assaults.

👉 Record-breaking crime rates among Maghrebi immigrants

👉 Other African nationals close behind

👉 Afghans and Pakistanis following next

👉 Low crime rates for European and Asian immigrants ⬇️

The same observation applies to verbal violence.

However, there is a more pronounced overrepresentation of foreigners from Maghreb countries.

👉 They are proportionally 10 times more likely to be implicated in threats than German nationals ⬇️

👉 In contrast, the suspect rates for homicides among Afghan and Pakistani nationals are on par with those of Maghrebis, at 15 times higher than that of Germans (!).

Behind these alarming statistics, let’s not forget that they represent the lives of thousands of victims ⬇️

3⃣ SEXUAL OFFENCES

German data is abundant on sexual assaults, with more than 110,000 serious offences recorded over 5 years.

Once again, the rates of being implicated by citizenship are far from homogeneous ⬇️

🔴 Afghan and Pakistani nationals are the most overrepresented among those implicated in rapes, with an alarming suspect rate 16 times higher than that of Germans.

African nationals also show a high rate, at more than 10 times higher than that of Germans ⬇️

The overrepresentation of Afghan and Pakistani foreigners is also striking in cases of child sexual abuse ⬇️

The same observation applies to cases of child pornography, where Afghan and Pakistani nationals are particularly overrepresented among those implicated ⬇️

4⃣ THEFT, ROBBERY & TRAFFICKING

Now, let's look at those implicated in thefts.

Overall, the major groups of overrepresented citizenships remain the same, but there are some nuances compared to violent crimes and sexual offenses ⬇️

👉 The overrepresentation of Maghreb foreign nationals in thefts is extremely pronounced.

👉 Another notable aspect of thefts: Romanian and Bulgarian nationals also exhibit a high suspect rate ⬇️

The overrepresentation of Maghreb populations is even more striking in robberies.

👉 Maghrebis are 32 times more likely to be implicated in robberies than German citizens ⬇️

In burglaries, too, the overrepresentation of Maghreb populations appears surreal.

👉 It is also noteworthy that, in burglaries—just as with other forms of theft—Afghans and Pakistanis are far less overrepresented than they are in sexual offenses ⬇️

In cases of drug possession and trafficking, Maghreb nationals also stand out with exceptionally high suspect rates ⬇️

5⃣ OTHERS

German data is very abundant and also records many other offenses, such as cybercrime or money laundering, in which Sub-Saharan African populations are particularly involved ⬇️

6⃣ SOURCES

Here are the sources for the data used in this thread.

But instead of just dropping links, I’ve created a tutorial to help you find the numbers by yourself ⬇️

7⃣ SOME EXPLANATIONS

Many factors can "explain" all or part of the observed over-criminality.

👉 For example, foreign populations are often younger and more male-dominated.

One can calculate an adjusted crime rate by correcting for these demographic differences ⬇️

Academic research shows that the adjusted rate significantly reduces the discrepancies in the rates of being implicated.

However, the main trends remain the same (r = 0.96), and one only needs to look at a few points in this graph to be convinced ⬇️

👉 Even more striking: even when they have similar income and age, and live in a similar environment, populations with non-Western background are more involved in criminal activities than 'native' populations ⬇️

8⃣ WHAT'S NEXT

The overrepresentations seen in German crime data are not isolated. Similar patterns appear across Europe—Italy is just one striking example (see below).

👉 I will explore this further with many more threads on the topic in the coming weeks.

Stay tuned! ⬇️

🫵 In the meantime, follow my account @marc_vanguard_i to stay updated on upcoming posts, and most importantly... ⬇️

... help spread this thread far and wide.

Retweets, bookmarks, likes and positive comments are the most effective ways to support my work.

👉 Here’s the first tweet of the thread for quick sharing ⬇️