Thread by @ulriklykke

I’m Danish.

I’m strongly in favour of striking a deal with Trump regarding Greenland.

Today, the state of Greenland is a mess economically and sociologically.

Here’s the big lines of why a deal with the United States is a win-win-win 🧵:

First off, it's important to understand just how massive Greenland is.

At 836,300 square miles:

• It could fit Germany inside 6 times

• It is larger than Alaska and Texas combined.

• From north to south, it spans over 2,670 km

Vast unharvested potential.

Greenland is a small economy and currently heavily dependent on Denmark.

Greenland's GDP is around $3B.

Greenland is heavily dependent on Denmark and receives a yearly subsidy of ~$600 million.

Denmark also provides infrastructure support and is responsible for Greenland’s defence.

Greenland has around 55.000 inhabitants and a total workforce of around 27.000.

The unemployment rate is 3.7%, the lowest in recent years.

This is good for the economy but also makes it difficult for companies to attract qualified people.

The backbone of Greenland's economy is its fishing industry which makes up for 98% of its exports.

Shrimp and halibut are the two most significant exports, with shrimp being the dominant catch.

Unfortunately, the island faces severe social issues:

· Highest rates of suicide in the world
· High murder rate and issues with domestic violence
· Highest alcohol consumption per capita worldwide

A stable future requires addressing root causes of these sad facts.

The country also has a big housing crisis:

The capital Nuuk has a shortage of 1,000+ homes, with 2,000+ people on waitlists for public housing.

High costs of housing is a key issue, as building in the Arctic is 30% more expensive.

Greenland's vast territory is a treasure chest of untapped resources.

Greenland has:

• 38.5 million tons of rare earth oxides
• Massive uranium deposits
• Vast oil and gas reserves
• Precious metals
• Some of the world's largest fresh water reserves

And all of these could become available with the right partnerships.

However, exploring such partnerships is not only up to Greenland.

For nearly 200 years, Denmark held full control of the island.

It was not until 2009, Greenland gained self-rule, taking over most domestic affairs.

Today, an independence movement in Greenland is is challenging Denmark's claim on the territory.

For context, Denmark is a small country of just 6 million people.

Despite being a wealthy country, the country is economically limited in its ability to support the development of Greenland.

Our country has neglected the opportunities and it now makes a lot of sense to explore partnership options.

Meanwhile, Trump is not playing games:

Trump already displayed interest for acquiring Greenland in 2019.

At that time, his efforts quickly faded due to the corona pandemic.

However, this time around his aggression on the topic cannot be mistaken.

Allegedly, the House Republicans are also already drafting legislation to provide greenlight of the Greenland negotiations.

Why's Trump so interested in Greenland?

There's several big reasons. One of them is the untapped natural resources in the country.

But the U.S. interest in Greenland is also strategic:

• Control of Arctic resources and trade routes.

• Geopolitical influence in the Arctic

• Military presence in a key region

All of the above are becoming more relevant in the future.

However, the people of Greenland needs to be onboard.

A few days ago, Prime ministers of Denmark and Greenland said in a joint press conference that Greenland is ready to explore independence.

Additionally, a poll showed that the people of Greenland is supporting that decision:

🔴 Denmark Independence 68%
🔵 Stay Denmark 32%

The people of Greenland wants independence.

Greenland’s path to independence could thrive with a free association with the U.S.

Here’s why:

• Access to investments for infrastructure and industry
• Strategic partnership in the Arctic
• Sovereignty while benefiting from U.S. economic and defense support

Greenland cannot achieve succesful independence without new partnerships or benefactors.

That begs the question what the price tag of such arrangement will be?

The Wall Street Journal did some napkin math on matter and ends up around $50B.

In my mind, this figure stands as good baseline for a down-payment for the partnership.

However, for a fair deal to be arranged a hefty "rent" for military bases and royalties on mineral exploitation must also be included.

A deal could benefit both Denmark, Greenland and the United States.

• United States wins dominance in a key territory.

• Denmark is relieved of a big economic burden.

• Greenland will benefit from massive investments for a better future.

All three countries should benefit heavily from the exploitation of the ressources.

The deal is currently at a crossroad.

Trump is pursuing this aggressively.

Greenland seems open to discussion, and Denmark is currently playing it quiet via diplomatic ties.

Hopefully, a win-win-win is in the cards.

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