Thread by @tmnxeq

different vibe than before

MSTR investor relation is so aids. Press release full of garbage non-gaap kpi

anyways, > $1bn loss in 2024

cash per year-end was a mere $38m

fun fact they didn't adopt the new accounting standard on fair value measurement of crypto assets yet. (in contrast to tesla, who adopted it in q4, or coinbase)

explains the large impairment loss, and the carrying value of 62k on their b/s, vs 93k fair value per 31.12.

(probably for taxation..)

earnings call opening:

amount of funds raised per quarter

this is where they stand now

no changes to 2025 fundraising plans. re-iterates goal to shift to fixed income issuance

ok something about their legacy biz

...cumulative amount of btc purchased up to feb.....

now describes the fair value adjustment mentioned earlier (opening balance q1 adjusted outside pnl)

shares issued as % of total trading volume

uh uh. after the 2027 convertible redemption later this month, they claim to have increased capacity for new debt

(note they expect the 2027 convertible to be redeemed for common shares. brrrr.)

next maturity +2 years out

now back to the recently issued prefereds ("STRK"). will be trading on nasdaq tmrw

lmao. claim they have a lot of debt capacity....if you just disregard most of the debt

for the prefs, they claim to have 750 years of STRK dividends capacity (RHS)

two new non-gaap kpi:

btc gain (= btc yield * opening)
btc $ gain (= btc yield * $opening)

....

we get 2025 targets for these new non-gaap kpi

unfortunately no mention of details on the financing side

Saylor now wrapping up last 12 months

on the re-branding:

easier to spell, easier to remember, more elegant

now bragging (once again) about past performance

..and consequently they outperformed every stock in the S&P500 index since then

during this time, bitcoin has also outperformed 99% of companies. mag7 outperformed 94%

(man, saylor sounds a bit annoyed. was his birthday yesterday. too much party?)

flipping through the slides - these returns come with high volatility. (note they aren't on #1 in every spot here. maybe sign of declining activity post convertible mania.)

bragging again about past performance

strategy[.]com website now tracks this in real-time

(he doesn't consider he might eventually underperform?)

he's literally going through these metrics

OTOH, I like the transparency & a dashboard is a good fit for a BI company

OTOH, that's what management is paid for? putting up a dashboard about their stock on their website?

btc 2025 catalyst, kinda generic

(not a single mention of AI yet. outside the press release in op.)

...now back to Strategy's capital stack

mentions replacing or expanding convertible offering

sees STRK (prefs) for retirement accounts. targets more vol than typical prefs/high yield bonds. highlights also i) perpetual dividend + ii) perpetual call alchemy

doesn't mention NFA

...could also see issuing vanilla debt (bottom row in slide before) again. function of cap markets

(guess at current rates, he can't service the interest from traditional debt instruments. hence all the alchemy.)

"strong capital structure, strong equity cushion over fixed liabilities"

wonder if he ran these slides past a lawyer...

now back to the non-gaap kpi. saylor hasn't mentioned these are non-gaap kpi.

ytd: small bar -> 2025 target: higher bar

> Important Information About BTC Yield, BTC Gain and BTC $ Gain KPIs

here is what the lawyers want you to know (from their sec filings):

tldr, the gain is only on paper. shareholder have no claim on either kpi

q&a starting, first with some softball that was planted prior on the prefs mechanics

STRK dividends will "primarily paid with ATM" shares; cash not necessary. sees the company not constraint, and the dividend size rather small compared to the overall stack

"very confident...in perpetuity"

2nd q (also planted) on the tax "issue", see below

no update; saylor doesn't view it as major issue, even in adverse outcome, sees this only having a minor impact

back to CEO Pong

closing remarks after 2 question to the alleged 10k+ listener in this call. lmao.

"hope you are as excited as we are about our enterprise software & btc strategy"

/end

future generation will study him. how did he convince people to buy "perpetual dividend preferred stock" at 80c on the dollar, against a basically non-existing operating company & no ability to generate cash aside from....finding new investors?

oh he can just pay in-kind? what kind of alchemy is this???

Genuinely hope MSTR's legal and capital markets advisors have a Plan B...