Thread by @laszloan

The US made it clear: EU leaders will be left out of Ukraine peace talks.

How and why did the EU get into this humiliating position?

🧵/1 Thread

Most European leaders blindly trusted the Biden administration.

This was the case right from the beginning: the EU copied the US oil sanctions against Russia. The share of Russian oil on the US market was negligable. But not in the EU, yet, the EU went forward with the sanctions nonetheless.

🧵/2

EU diplomacy failed on multiple levels.

1) Several European leader believed and openly claimed that sanctions can break Russia’s economy, ignite regime change, or even lead to the desintegration of Russia.
🧵/3

2) Sanctions failed. More than a dozen sanctions packages were adopted, yet Russia was able to adapt and shift its economy to supply the needs on the battleground.

🧵/4

3) Other than the closest allies of the US, no country joined the sanctions. In fact, several countries became intermediaries to facilitate trade with Russia.

🧵/5

3) But the EU cannot point the finger at other countries for the failure of EU sanctions against Russia. Most EU countries continued trade with Russia. Despite the first wave of western companies leaving Russia, many stayed and continued their operations.

🧵/6

4) European diplomats failed to convince major countries to join the war effort on Ukraine’s side. The rest of the world never signed up to the idea that the war in Ukraine was an existentional threat to European countries or to the rules based international order. (Or they simply didn’t mind.)
BRICS was expanding.

🧵/7

5) Communication by EU leaders was never fully backed up by action.
The European defense industry never got the boost and contracts to ramp up production.
The opposite happened. High energy prices and the IRA adopted by the US led to industrial decline in Europe.

🧵/8

In addition to poor European diplomacy and economic woes, both Germany and France are weak politically.

The German coalition collapsed and France has a national assembly divided into 3 blocks with no clear majority.

🧵/9

EU leaders bet the house on Biden/Harris winning the US elections.
In fact, as the USAID scandal unfolds, it is increasingly clear that major European media, NGOs and political elites are satellites of the globalist progressive network managed from Washington.
The very network Donald Trump and Elon Musk are trying to uncover and eliminate its influence.

🧵/10

The EU still had chances to turn things around and arrange negotiations in favour of European interests!

All it had to do was take initiative before the US. There were at least 2 such occasions.

🧵/11

First, in the summer of 2024. PM Viktor Orbán tried to initiate peacetalks between the US, Russia, China, Ukraine and European counterparts.
However, most EU leaders hysterically refused the idea of peacetalks.


🧵/12abouthungary.hu/blog/prime-min…

Second, between Donald Trump winning the election and inauguration day.

Donald Trump made it very clear that he will try to end the war. As the president elect has limited authority to act before inauguration, there was a last window of opportunity for European leaders to take initiative and negotiate between early november and the 20th of January.

🧵/13

The EU is now on bad terms with all major power centers: the US, Russia and China.

Economic weakness, political weakness and diplomatic blunders do not make it an attractive or serious partner.

The EU is not at the negotiating table because... it has nothing to bring to the negotiating table.

We need to make Europe great again! For that, we need change in Brussels! #MEGA

🧵14/14