Thread by @jdmarkman

Donald Trump thought he was smarter than his Harvard advisor.

So he ignored his advisor's warning & raised China’s tariff from 2% to 54%.

Now Americans have to pay $3,800 per year–just to cover Trump’s mess.

Here's how Trump's arrogant error is DESTROYING America's economy:🧵

It started with a brilliant plan:
Harvard economist Stephen Miran designed Trump’s trade policy.

His idea? Use tariffs to:
• Bring in money for the U.S..
• Keep prices stable for Americans.
• Push other countries to trade fairly.

But something went terribly wrong...

Stephen Miran’s plan followed 3 simple rules:

1. Make the dollar stronger to cancel out tariff costs
2. Raise tariffs slowly—2% at a time, up to 20% (no shocks)
3. Make it easier for U.S. companies to sell abroad

Wall Street loved this plan. But then came the shock...

Trump completely ignored the rules:

Instead of gradual 2% increases, he dropped a bomb:
• 54% on China
• 25% on South Korea
• 24% on Japan, & 20% on EU
• 10% minimum on everyone else

All at once. No warning. Markets panicked.

Why? Because instant massive tariffs break the entire model.

The plan only worked if other countries had time to adjust their currencies and absorb the costs.

But with no time to adjust, guess who pays the price?

You.

The Yale Budget Lab estimates:

The avg American household will lose $3,800 per year from Trump's tariffs.

And prices are expected to rise 2.3% across the board.

Wall Street is already preparing for a global trade collapse.

But there's one thing no one's talking about:

Trump needs a win - and fast.

He’s got thin control of Congress until 2026.

2025 is his one shot to reset global trade.

But crashing the global economy isn’t the legacy he should leave.

So what's next? 3 things can happen:

1. More Retaliation
China just replied with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods.

They’re also limiting exports of rare earth minerals needed for:
• Defense
• Aerospace
• Medical technology

U.S. companies get hit the hardest since they rely on global demand.

2. Global Rebalancing

Trump wants to bring manufacturing back to the US.
But trading partners are forming alliances:

• China, Korea, and Japan are talking
• Europe-China trade discussions

This makes it harder for the U.S. to call the shots.

3. Trade Negotiations

Vietnam is already talking about cutting tariffs to zero.

They're now Asia's favorite trading partner after Trump’s 2018 China tariffs.

If Trump makes a deal with Vietnam (who has close ties to China), markets could stabilize.

But no one is talking about one thing:

This isn’t like 2008 or 2020.
It’s not a crisis that happened—it’s a choice.
Trump’s choice.

But people forget his real superpower:
He knows how to declare victory—even when nothing’s won.

Trump needs economic growth for his legacy.

He can't run again in 2028.

He’s likely to pivot (he’s done it before).

And right now?

The market's giving you a discount on the world's best businesses.

So if you wanna know about which businesses to focus on...

Or if you're confused about what to do next...

I analyzed Trump's Tariff policies & made a FREE PDF Guide with advice for what to do next.

You can get it here (+ FREE bonus weekly insights):
landing.markmancapital.net/trump-tariffs

Credits (YT):
• Trump's Chief Economic Adviser on Tariffs, Trade, Economy
• CNN Shorts: Trump hikes tariffs on China to 54%
• Why Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense
• Trump threatens additional 50% tariff on China as trade war escalates

Images from Kare & X

Thanks for reading!

I'm Jon Markman:
• Founder & President of Markman Capital
• 2x Pulitzer Prize Winning Journalist & Investor
• Obsessed with turning market trends into action

Follow @jdmarkman for more insights.

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