Thread by @Tushar15_

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Decoding the ACTUAL IMPACT of the INDUS WATER TREATY; and the larger picture in play.

Incomplete information about the Indus Water Treaty and its abeyance is being spread. Beyond the rhetoric, here is the story in numbers, facts, and ground realities.

Before we get started, you need to understand what MAF means (million acre feet). The volume of water that would cover 1 million acres to a depth of 1 foot' is how we describe MAF. That's 2.73 times the area of Delhi (1,484 sq km).

Why is this important?

Because every year, 135-145 MAF flows from Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus into Pakistan. 1 MAF can sink an area 2.7 times the size of Delhi by one foot.

The amount of water that flows into Pakistan from these three rivers annually can fill Bhakra-Nangal Reservoir 24 times.

PM Modi wants to end this generosity for good and rightfully so. Also, please remember we are not factoring in the flow from Ravi, Beas, and Satluj. Pakistan receives this water from Indus (~90 MAF), Jhelum (~25 MAF), and Chenab (~25 MAF).

Now, this is where it gets complicated. Imagine having a water tank on top of your house with a storage of a million litres, but you need to empty it once each day, or else, the water tank comes apart the next day?

How? Obviously, you can't have 50,000 buckets (20L each).

This is where an opportunity presents itself for India. We have to find ways to exhaust the water within India, and building dams is one option, but can we build 24 Bhakras in 10 years? For those who know, the size of the Gobind Sagar reservoir is unimaginably large.

Another important point. Our current hydropower projects on Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus do not allow for storage. Think of them as RAM in your computer. They have high computing power, but the data storage is temporary. They are not SSD or HD, but simply RAM.

Together, India's river water projects on Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus already allow for storage between 1.2 to 3.6 MAF, and from here, either we can expand the storage through more dams and checkpoints, or else, do what the Chinese have done to aid their northwestern region.

This is China's South-North Water Transfer Project. 36 MAF, approximately, worth of water being moved across 2,900 kilometres, and even though it caters to 5 to 15 per cent of the Chinese population, it is quite significant. What if India attempted the same?

Please understand. We need to find ways to drain the water in the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The Three Gorges Dam in China stores around 8 MAF worth of water, but that's one option. We need to ape China's SNWTP. Take water from Chenab, Jhelum, and give it away to other regions.

Here's what it could like. A six-canal project, each canal 40m wide (13-15 DTC buses stacked sideways), running from Jammu region to other states including Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chandigarh, Delhi, and even Gujarat.

If you look at the map, the elevation doesn't allow one to build through Himachal and Uttarakhand, but the plains are ideal. Think of them as water highways, and a canal network does exist, but the water shortages are soon going to be upon us.

Punjab and Haryana have an annual water deficit anywhere between 8 to 15 MAF, Delhi in the range of 1 MAF, Uttar Pradesh between 10-15 MAF. Do recall that the groundwater levels in Rajasthan and Punjab are dangerously low. We need water, and these canals can fix that by 75%.

For this thread, I am taking the assumption that the canal water is sourced from Jhelum and Chenab alone. Indus is ignored for geographical and costing reasons, plus the distance.

Six canals, moving 28 to 36 MAF (China's SNTWP moves 36 MAF), across 3000 kms (SNTWP ~2900 kms).

You have to give it ten years. Politically, the land acquisition should not be a challenge, given farmers in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh do know the water is getting over. You take ten years, the cost is going to be more than Rs. 5 Lakh Crore, but we can spend.

In the Punjab Haryana belt, it solves the SYL political problem, since abundant water will be available, and once it gets to Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, it can go anywhere. Delhi also needs water with its expanding outer areas and population density. Win win for all.

One can imagine some water logistics as well (getting ahead of myself, but why not). Riverfronts in smaller cities that can boost tourism. This will take ten years to build, but even the Chinese planned SNWTP construction for 50 years. Time, money, and politics is sorted here.

Now, what are the consequences of taking this approach.

One, merely a canal network from 2 of the 3 rivers in question, over the next ten years, can cut down water supply by 25 per cent to Pakistan (28-36 MAF of the 140 MAF). We aren't even factoring in additional dams yet.

Two, the Mangla dam in Pakistan will be severely hit. Built on the Jhelum River, the dam is important for Pakistan's Punjab. You are pushing the state towards electricity shortages. Power is also required for electricity, another weak point to be exploited.

Three, India's foreign policy to Pakistan will be permanently superseded by the 6-canal project. Which party will be daring enough to say that they are willing to go back to status quo while abandoning the interests of the states that together make up for around 160 LS seats.

Four, you can't worry about China. They are anyway upto no good across the Indus and the Brahmaputra. If the Chinese are thinking years ahead, it's time we do it as well. Also, if you start building on Indus, the Chinese can disrupt it very easily by flooding India.Sad but true.

Five, the agri productivity rate in Punjab, Haryana, Western Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, North Gujarat could go up significantly. This could be Modi's 'Green Revolution through Water Revolution'. Forget the farm laws, the area could generate $1 trillion in the agri-economy alone.

Six, you'll always have Pakistan by the leash, just like a mad dog. It's foolish to think that Pakistan will change, so India must embrace a ten-year project to begin with. The second phase, beyond 2035, could be about dams and reservoirs further south (UP, Raj, GJ).

Seven, do not think geopolitics alone, but serious water shortages are coming. NCR is going to be a trillion-dollar economy zone. Haryana is doing stunningly well as well. The water availability, combined with DFC and existing highway networks could be an economic powerhouse.

Eight, political stability in the Centre is a challenge, but that should nudge the BJP to go for it. Even if BJP can manage power until 2034 (thinking ten years ahead for now), they'd have laid the foundations for something that will change the geopolitics of the region.

The feasibility is there, there is a canal network already. Building will not be a challenge and will only add to our national economy. But we need to find more ways to exhaust the water. Run-of-the-river projects do not store water, even if they make for good rhetoric.

So, final numbers. 140 MAF flows into Pakistan. 6 Canal network cuts it down by 25%. Mangla dam on the Jhelum hit (power and agri crisis in Pakistan). 75% water deficiency in PB, HR, RJ, GJ, UP, DL addressed. Current storage at 1.2-3.6 MAF vs ten-year plan for 28-36 MAF.

n/n

Also, must mention here @infoindata folks for their graphics. If you like the thread, please follow that handle as well. Some excellent data stories.

@infoindata Indus Water Treaty Suspended After Pahalgam Attack | Consequences for India-Pakistan | Tushar Gupta