1/ One of the more counterintuitive findings in my latest article:
Historically, when Democrats only control the House, an average of just over 10 race-conscious provisions are added to the NDAA per year.
When they control both the House and Senate? That number drops to about 4.
But why?
2/ First, what makes the House so powerful here?
Simple: the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) writes the first draft of the NDAA.
If you control the House, you control the blueprint—and the early language that often survives reconciliation. That’s where ideological riders get embedded.
3/But why are more race-conscious provisions added under divided government?
While I can’t say for sure, my reasoning is this: when Democrats only control the House, the NDAA becomes one of the few legislative vehicles guaranteed to pass.
Standalone race-conscious or DEI bills are less likely to survive the Senate.
But must-pass defense bills? They will.
So they load them up.
4/ It’s smart politics (have to give credit where it's due).
Republicans are unlikely to block troop pay, weapons procurement, or readiness funding etc. over DEI riders buried in a 1,000-page bill.
And that assumes they're even aware of them and appreciate their implications.
5/ Bottom line: controlling the House—not the Senate—is the key structural advantage for embedding race-conscious provisions into defense law.
Unified Dem control makes other vehicles viable.
But when the House is all they've got, the NDAA becomes the tip of the spear.
6/ Currently, Republicans hold a narrow 30–27 majority on the House Armed Services Committee.
But if that flips—even slightly—after the 2026 midterms, we can expect the average number of race-conscious provisions in the NDAA to more than double.
And if Democrats expand their advantage? The total could climb higher still.
7/ This isn’t just a procedural quirk—it’s a strategic pipeline.
If Republicans are serious about restoring race-neutrality in military policy, they need to understand how DEI provisions get embedded.
The NDAA isn’t just a defense bill. It’s a legislative battlefield.
It’s time to turn the tables—and force Democrats to choose between DEI and defense spending.
8/ Link to full article substack-proxy.glitch.me/articles/zachg…
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