Thread by @RodDMartin

🧵 How Israel Caught Iran Off-Guard

The regime in Tehran bragged for years about its “intelligence,” “cyber mastery,” and “strategic depth.”

Then Israel decapitated its military in a single night.

Here's how Iran walked blindfolded into a war that could end its regime: 👇

2/ Tehran’s grand strategy for 40 years:

☑️ Hide behind proxies
☑️ Avoid direct war with Israel
☑️ Use “death to America” as domestic theater
☑️ Build nukes quietly behind a wall of negotiations

All of that just imploded.

3/ Iran never believed Israel would strike alone.

It assumed Trump would block it -- like Biden and Obama -- to protect nuclear negotiations.

And in fairness, so did most people.
That belief was… a fatal miscalculation.

They should have listened better.

4/ In reality, Israel spent months preparing Operation Rising Lion.

It was more than an airstrike. It was a covert, coordinated, surgical decapitation of Iran’s nuclear and military command.

And Mossad had been setting the table from the inside for years.

5/ When Israeli jets finally launched, they already had what mattered:

🎯 Targeted air defense weak spots
🎯 Real-time knowledge of IRGC command locations
🎯 Embedded weapons and commandos

Then Israel achieved air dominance in 48 hours. Russia hasn't been able to in 3 yrs.

6/ In the opening wave, Israel:

– Killed over 20 senior IRGC commanders
– Destroyed key radars and SAM systems
– Blew up underground missile bases
– Struck the hierarchy of Iran’s nuclear program

14 nuclear scientists. Gone.

7/ At the same time:

Mossad launched drones from inside Iran, hidden in vehicles and pre-staged bases.

Some were disguised. Others were embedded in rocks.

Commando teams had already planted weapons next to key air defense systems.

Precision. Total shock.

8/ Iran’s response?

Panic. Disarray. Silence.

They didn’t strike Dimona.
They didn’t hit Israeli gas fields.
They barely hit anything.

Why?

Partly because they couldn't. And partly because China and Russia told them to sit down—because they know Trump’s in charge.

9/ The Israeli strike has exposed the regime’s internal fragility.

▪️ The economy is in free fall
▪️ The youth hate the ayatollahs
▪️ Their security state is eroding
▪️ Their proxies have been dismantled
▪️ Their myth of strength is shattered

10/ Israel's goal is clear:

Topple the regime.
Normalize the region.
Extend peace from the Gulf to the Med.
End the two-state delusion.
Remove the Iranian sword forever.

And now, they might just pull it off.

11/ The Left said Trump would cause World War III.

But who is going to fight for Iran? NOBODY.

Instead, Trump enabled strategic clarity:

– Strength over appeasement
– Deterrence over decay
– Action over endless talks

Iran didn’t believe him. Now they do.