Thread by @_CameronSchultz

Chelsea CAN beat PSG…

In a one off game, it’s totally possible and the tools are there to do it 🔑

Here’s how Chelsea can:

- Effectively press PSG ⚡️
- Defend PSG’s fluidity 💪
- Attack the space 🎯
- Best lineup ⚗️

A pre-match analysis thread 🧵

1. How to press PSG effectively

We’ve seen teams try everything against PSG, and normally they still come out as the second best.

Bayern went man-for-man, and executed it well to be fair. Yet they still conceded far too many chances.

Other teams have opted more for a zonal approach, keeping a +1 at the back, and have also been torn apart

So what is the best option for Chelsea?

We have to understand what PSG intend to do in the first phase of the build up, when they have settled possession in the defensive line or from goal kicks.

Vitinha is key, and must be man-marked at all times. Typically, PSG build by Vitinha dropping to either receive directly from one of the back 3 (Hakimi pushed higher, Mendes staying deeper), or by becoming one of the back 3 for Mendes to push on higher

Ruiz and Neves are never in a fixed position. This is why man-to-man can cause so many issues.

Both of them rotate often, and either drop deep or tuck inside for multiple reasons

1. If their marker follows them, it opens space for Doue/Dembele to drop into to receive through the lines

2. If their marker doesn’t follow, they are free to receive between the lines

3. By tucking inside and deep, the opponents wide midfielder must invert to shadow-cover, releasing the full-back in space

This makes them harder to pick up in the build-up phase, but a HUGE threat for how they transition.

See how easily they break through the lines here with some nice movement and finding pockets of space

In other words, I think it is safe for Chelsea to lose a player in the attacking line’s press to ensure they match PSG in the middle and maintain a +1 at the back

Not only should this make tactical sense, it must suit the personnel that will be on the pitch too

I reckon Chelsea still press in a 4-2-3-1 shape that we’re used to, set-up in a way that forces PSG to play through their right

Whilst it arguably forces them down their stronger, more fluid side, it also forces Dembele to drop deeper on Colwill’s side, who is much better at tracking his runner than Chalobah or Tosin

Rudiger got this SO WRONG the other day and it cost Madrid big time. Tah also tried it, and did it better, but still got caught out

So to start, the #10 absolutely MUST mark Vitinha and track him as he screens his backline looking for a line-breaking pass.

The striker should be arcing his run to put Donnarumma under pressure whilst shadow-marking Pacho/Beraldo

Palmer can press Mendes when he stays deep, and the right #6 man-marks Ruiz. If Vitinha drops, however, Palmer can pass Mendes onto his #6 and pick up Ruiz who should be coming deeper, but this change must be timed perfectly

The right #6 can then pick up Neves, the RB marks Kvara and the LB marks Doue.

This leaves both CBs to track Dembele, where one can stay deeper between his full-backs whilst the other (mostly Colwill) can follow Dembele deep to stay touch-tight

This leaves the LW in a 50/50 role where he must be ready to jump to press the LCB if he receives the ball, and use his shadow to cover off Hakimi

The pressing trap, therefore, is the pass back to Donnarumma and/or the chipped pass out to Hakimi, where the pack can shuffle across to trap the space and force a switch of play or a recycle of possession

Aston Villa implemented a similar system, and it mostly worked.

It still wasn’t perfect, but they created problems for PSG to progress out from the back

2. How to defend PSG’s ‘relationism’

PSG have the technical ability to toy with their oppositions when they play in their attacking half.

Surprsingly, Botafogo stand out to me as the team that have best defended in these moments, settling for a 4-3-3 midblock, which can look quite like a 4-5-1 when the wingers sit deep. They kept their lines compact and narrow, and shifted laterally as a unit when play was switched to prevent central progression

This is exactly the same shape I expect Chelsea to set up in, and is a huge reason why I think Tosin should start this game, for a few reasons

1. His experience in maintaining defensive organisation should leave less gaps open than Chalobah, who is better suited to a pressing, front-footed system

2. When possession is regained, a direct ball into the striker to release play and initiate counter-attacks could be vital. Tosin has a 91.1% pass completion rate, and makes 60% of his long passes vs Chalobah’s 85.6% and 51% respectively.

Another reason why I suggest Chelsea try and trap Hakimi with the ball instead of the left-side of the pitch is Neto is much stronger at tracking his man and defending than Cole Palmer will be on the opposite flank

In a mid-block, and especially as it transitions into a deep low-block where a winger becomes a wing-back in a 5-3-2/5-4-1, Neto is far superior

It also means on regaining possession, Tosin, Sanchez or Palmer can each look to find a direct ball over the top for Neto to attack with space beyond the attacking Hakimi

Again, we see both Botafogo and Aston Villa defend these moments well. Liverpool also held their ground in these moments, although I would suggest they were less convincing in their actions

We can see here that Aston Villa defend in a 4-2-3-1, which can sometimes look like a 4-4-2. Either way, the lines are compact, prevent pockets of space for PSG players to operate in. When they did receive in these areas, Villa were able to quickly swarm them to prevent central progression. Therefore, Villa we happy to usher PSG to play into wide areas, where Emery’s team could then trap them and force a pass back, allowing them to jump out slightly into a higher press

3. Creating attacks vs PSG

PSG’s rest defense sits in a 3-1 shape meaning space can be found in wider area’s around the single pivot, even after it recovers into a solid 4-1-4-1

Also, as just mentioned, the space left behind Hakimi when he pushes high could be an area that Neto and his pace can exploit

Against Madrid, they did suffer some key moments which with better decision making, could’ve hurt them

Creating an overload on one side to stretch open that defense can open up channels for the opposite winger and the striker to run into

Below, we see Bellingham drive with the ball from a wide, deep zone to a more central area beside Vitinha, who doesn’t pose much physical presence in this moment

Garcia and Guler create an initial 2v1 against Mendes, and if Garcia stayed wider, Guler could’ve made a more progressive run into space too. But we can see channels open up between the CBs available to attack

If Palmer was carrying the ball here, where Bellingham is, I have no doubt he slips a pass through with the right weight for a winger/striker to finish

Aston Villa showed something along the same lines

When runners from deep got past Ruiz and Neves, and the ball carrier attracted a press from Vitinha, it allowed for diagonal passes to be played for the oncoming runners in a pocket of space ahead of the PSG defence

Below we see Rogers surpassing Ruiz with the ball, meaning Vitinha has to step towards him, leaving space for Tielemans behind him

Tielemans receives a nice diagonal, linebreaking pass which causes Pacho to now step out and apply pressure, leaving a channel for Rashford to run into which Tielemans slip him into

This suits Chelsea, too, when they create a 3-3-4 with a wide receiver to progress the ball. Palmer or Enzo can drop into a wide zone between the midfield and defensive lines, pick up the ball and turn, before finding a diagonal line-breaking pass

Depending on which striker is used depends on what the #10’s may look for in this situation. Credit to @ConnorHolden00 for first suggesting this, but a pocket of space can be found behind Neves and Ruiz, but still ahead of the CBs

Having a left-footed player in the right half-space and vice versa on the left makes these passing angles much simpler, too, where a pass can be fired in and then movement to continue a run into the half-space dragging a player with, or receiving a chip over the top

I would expect PSG to go man-for-man in their press, and doing so very high up the pitch. This can hurt Chelsea, but it can also play into their favour depending on the profiles that start this match

Even in their midblock, they look to go man-for-man, except for maintaining a +1 in the defensive area. Against Madrid, one winger would track the full back, whilst the other would cut the passing lane to the other. Rudiger here is the spare man on the ball, as Dembele applies pressure as soon as Tchouameni receives the pass

The obvious way to play out of this press is to play over it, which makes me lean more to starting Delap in the #9 than Pedro, despite his 2 goals against Fluminense

Speaking of which, I do genuinely believe Pedro is going to be a ridiculously good player at Chelsea under Maresca

Both as a LW, an Attacking Mid and as a Striker. The stats are really good too, and suggest a high ceiling which could be unleashed in this system.

If you want to see a more in-depth piece on why and how Chelsea needed him, check out this thread

x.com/_CameronSchult…

As I was saying, Delap offers a greater physical presence and focal point to play into when bypassing PSG’s press.

This is also crucial when you see PSG’s distances. They commit high up the pitch, but leave their defensive line deep to prevent balls over the top. This means there is space in the middle of the pitch for knock downs and runners.

Playing direct into Delap gives him a chance of getting through on goal, but more so allows him to knock the ball down into an oncoming midfielder, who is able to win the second ball

This is a huge reason why I think the double pivot tomorrow can win or lose Cheslea this match. Caicedo simply has to start, as does either Santos or James

We’ve seen Caicedo pick the ball up in the middle of the pitch and quickly slip his teammate in, like Jackson, who can then create a bit of separation to get a shot away

Both teams will focus on second balls and winning duels straight from Kick-off, too

Chelsea will start their half by a long straight ball back into Sanchez, who can then look to play long into…

PSG I expect will use their new ‘rugby’ style kick-off routine by kicking out for a throw in deep in their opponents half, hoping to trap them deep and win the duels from that throw in, or immediately transition into a phase of high pressing

x.com/DAZNFootball/s…

4. The Lineup

I would imagine Maresca will revert back to a 3-2-5 IP shape this match, just to make sure he maintains control for when possession is lost

Plus, PSG defend with 4 at the back, so a front 5 is already a +1, so commiting 6 players might be ambitious unless the right moment presents itself

How the shape is created ultimately depends on the lineup, but there are many things to factor in

- Enzo cannot be dropped
- Neto should start on the left both for counter attacks, good form and his defensive work tracking Hakimi
- Palmer must also play, meaning Palmer and Enzo must transition into the 2 #10’s, and I doubt Nkunku starts on the right for Palmer and Enzo to start in the midfield
- Therefore, width must be provided on the right for Palmer to invert inside
- Reece James needs to be on the pitch, but unlikely he can overlap safely without the fear of overdoing his workload still
- Cucurella and Colwill must also start (but that was obvious)

Now we are left with questions of who starts as the striker? Will Enzo start in the double pivot and push high for Cucu/James to invert or will he start in the #10? If in the #10, that means Palmer must start on the right?

The list goes on

This is how I think we best set up to manage all of PSG’s threats. I feel for Pedro as he deserves the start but I think tactically it doesn’t fit. In possession, Gusto can overlap and underlap to provide width and dynamic changes down that right flank

I also would not be shocked in Nkunku somehow makes his way into this lineup at RW, with Palmer in the #10, James at RB and Enzo in the #6.

This is by far Maresca’s toughest job yet

Win or lose, he and the team have done extremely well to have made it to a final, and the expectation is not on them to be lifting that trophy

But there are so many details that can go into this which might be the deciding factor. I have no doubt Chelsea will complete, but they will have to suffer for large portions of the game and manage their attacks well

In a one off game, however, anything can happen

Chelsea weren’t meant to beat City in 2021 but it happened. They could do the same thing here. PSG are also increibly, but they arent without weaknesses still - exploit them well and you WILL score a goal

Defensively it will be the hardest job yet, and each player must stay switched on. Follow you man, even with the rotations, or pass them onto to a teammate to mark but only at the right moment.

Don’t let PSG play through you, and you might stand a chance. That is the main takeaway from this

Fingers crossed Maresca can do it. The players willl have to have 100% energy levels because they will be chasing the ball a lot

Get the press right and already you’re off to a good start. Score early, even better. Other than that, hope and pray for the best

Score predictions below 👇

Thank you all for reading, anything you think I missed? 🙏

As always, feedback and support means so much and is greatly appreciated. Come on Chelsea 👍💙

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