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New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, and ideological trends changing the world.

Jul 15, 10 tweets

🚨🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦Trump’s “17 Patriots” Won’t Save Ukraine—Russia Isn’t Worried At All

Ukrainian defenses are crumbling, and the US is running low ​on missiles.

🧵Here’s why the "game-changing" weapons talk is a fantasy👇

Based on Trump's statement, it's not clear whether the US is sending 17 Patriot batteries or 17 launchers. Here are the three possible scenarios:

🔸Minimal scenario: 1 battery (2-4 launchers)—just a symbolic gesture.

🔸Moderate scenario: 4 batteries (16-20 launchers)—meaningful, but still not game-changing.

🔸Fantasy scenario: 17 batteries (68+ launchers)? Impossible.

The US only has ~60-70 total, and stripping allies (Japan, Korea, Europe) isn’t happening.

Even in the best case, Ukraine gets partial air defense reinforcement—not a strategic shift.

EU Promises vs. Reality

🔸Germany & Netherlands pledged 3 Patriots—but one won’t arrive for months.

🔸Russian missiles are already outmatching deployed systems.

🔸Delays + shortages = Kiev’s air shield is fraying.

Patriots Are Running on Empty

🔸US missile stocks are depleted—down to 25% of minimum levels.

🔸Pentagon is alarmed: After Iran’s strike on Al-Udeid base, dozens of interceptors were burned in one night.

🔸Even if Trump sends systems, they’ll be useless without missiles.

Why Patriots Don’t Solve Ukraine’s Real Problems?

Russia’s strategy isn’t about air dominance—it’s about grinding down Ukraine’s army & infrastructure. Patriots don’t change that calculus.

Ukraine’s crisis: Not a lack of air defense—but a catastrophic shortage of infantry & armored vehicles.

What Ukraine Actually Needs, But Won't Get

🔸1,000+ Bradleys (not 30)

🔸HIMARS by the dozens (not 2-3 at a time)

🔸APCs & IFVs (M113, MaxxPro, Strykers—anything with wheels & armor)

🔸Mobilized troops who don’t desert (current rate: ~70%)

The West "aid" is just enough to prolong the war—not win it

🔸No NATO troops

🔸No mass armor

🔸No industrial-scale aid

Result? Ukraine bleeds out slowly.

Russia’s Next Move

🔸More strikes to exhaust remaining AD missiles

🔸Slow pushes where Ukraine lacks troops to defend

🔸Infrastructure strikes to collapse morale

Patriots might intercept a few missiles, but they won't save 🇺🇦 frontlines

Conclusion:

Trump’s Patriots are a distraction. Without:

🔸Thousands of vehicles

🔸Real mobilization reform

🔸Western industrial backing

Ukraine’s defeat is a matter of time. The West is giving Ukraine a water pistol to fight a wildfire.

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