Thread by @DokaKuri

Here’s my statistical model to trade Nasdaq (and potentially any instrument) built on my own statistical findings.

@NQStats @edgeful @rherman

Before anything, let's understand NY AM price action in 2 parts/time ranges.

1. 9:30–9:45 AM — Initial volatility.
If an FVG is respected or broken, or if you understand basic market structure, enter quickly in your bias.

Goal: be the earliest buyer/seller in that first 10 or 15min window. Why? Let’s look at the data.

Here’s the data for the first 10- and 15-minute ranges — consistent over 5 years with less than 2% variance.

This shows that till 11 AM, there’s ~80% chance price moves in the direction of the first 10-min candle’s breakout/breakdown (needs a 5-min close to confirm).
By positioning within that first 10/15-min candle or after a break-and-retest, we align with the move.

"We can be 80% confident that even with an SL at the range low, we’re safe till 11 AM.

So, how’s this different from a regular ORB?
Here’s where our 2nd range comes in."

(read IMPORTANT POINT-1 below to know ORB drawbacks)

2. The 9–10 Initial Balance (9–10 AM hourly range).

Why do we use this? Let’s look at the data.

Same story — a 5-min close beyond the range high/low gives ~78% (80% in recent data) chance of NOT touching the opposite side till 2 PM.

Now, let’s connect the dots.

The 15-minute initial range often sits inside the 9–10 AM range.

If the initial range is bullish, it usually stays bullish after the 10/15-minute break, then pushes to break the 9–10 AM range high.

This setup gives an early 4H PO3 manipulation entry with 80% accuracy — early enough to catch the expected 10 AM leg and more.

Relying only on the 9–10 AM IB means waiting for a break-and-retest — widening SL to the range low — while 10 AM volatility/news often sends price trending straight away.

I use the break-and-retest of the 9–10 AM range as a perfect scaling opportunity. From there, I hold until price reaches my DOL/target — or, in my approach, the 10 AM 4H 0.5–1σ standard deviation level for additional precision and points.

This often aligns with the 9:30–10:30 AM IB, so if you trade that too, you can add to your position there.
Or, stick to a strict risk-to-reward approach — whichever fits your plan.

Why did I make this model?
I wanted something statistical, consistent, with good R:R, mechanical rules, and a fixed entry time.
It serves that purpose — offering multiple entry points, with scaling opportunities as second entries, similar to the classic IB.

This isn’t anything new under the sun — it aligns with many known models, so feel free to adapt the above data to fit your own trading approach.

FAILURE SCENARIOS:

Let’s talk about where this model can fail and what to do then. I have fallback methods to secure re-entries when that happens.

1. Wrong read on price — it closes in the opposite direction after a break.
This often happens in the first 15 mins with choppy moves. If your pre-break entry fails, wait for the retest to reenter with the smallest SL. Here, we lost the first attempt but got back in on the retest

2. 15-min range ‘double breaks’ or gives a false break before hitting the other side.

Rare, but possible. Here, we take the first SL, then wait to pre-enter at the possible 9–10 IB break or use the classic break-and-retrace entry.
Go through my previous post for IB level info.

What an ideal entry will look like?

IMPORTANT POINTS:

1. The 80% probability is of price staying above/below the protected side.
If you only enter on IB breaks (like ORB), the price could just go sideways or hover above the protected side and still hit your SL, which is why the 9:30–9:45 pre-entry matters.

2. Price often manipulates or forms a Judas swing — something i found in multiple models on twitter.

9:24–10:08 → manipulation window (credit: @LethalityTrader)

3. The entry model can be your own. I avoid heavy chart analysis — no SMT, HTF POI, quarterly theory, etc. This is purely stats + basic price action. Feel free to build on it.

4. VWAP works great with this.

If price is above the VWAP range before 9:30, it often reverts to the mean.

Adds confluence via mean support and gives targets at VWAP’s upper/lower bands.

5. Missing the first 15-minute window can result in the price rallying too far with no retest or re-entry. And if the 9–10 AM IB is unusually large, be cautious — such days often drift sideways with limited opportunity.
for example:

6. If we’re near 2.5–3σ 4H standard deviation (deep discount/premium), price can either keep rallying (less likely) or reverse after the 15-min IB break. Look for reversal trades here — often a double break or partial retrace.
Example using 1σ + 4H std dev as reference.

That’s it from me!!
I’m sharing this because I’ve learned a lot from others, and this is my way of giving back.
It’s a straightforward, stats-backed approach that’s been useful for me and might be for you as well.
Always open to feedback, ideas, or just talking about charts.

DB.