Thread by @onlydjole

🇷🇺‼️Russia is well informed and fully aware of which countries are preparing for a decisive showdown‼️

09 August 2025

Multiple sources state that more than 34,000 Polish and NATO troops are being deployed near the border with Ukraine, Belarus and near the Russian exclave of the Kaliningrad region. 👇

This kind of movement is considered to be much more than the usual military exercises. According to a recent announcement by the Russian Ministry of Defense, it is about significant preparations for "the possibility of a direct military conflict with Russia."

Poland, which describes itself as the mainstay of NATO's eastern flank, is leading the activities under the so-called "Eastern Shield" operation. We are talking about rapid reaction forces that are deployed along the Polish-Ukrainian and Polish-Belarusian borders.

Elite units from the United States of America, the United Kingdom and Germany are also arriving with them. At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2025, strengthening the defense of the eastern flank was highlighted as one of the key priorities. 👇

Special pressure is observed in the Kaliningrad area. Russia has repeatedly pointed out that NATO is increasing its presence in Poland and Lithuania, including the deployment of advanced radar and anti-aircraft systems. At the beginning of August, the Russian Foreign Minister described such moves as "clearly hostile".

In response to the emerging situation, the Russian Western and Southern Military Districts, as well as the forces deployed in Belarus, increased the level of combat readiness. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense confirmed that joint Russian-Belarusian units are conducting exercises in the border areas, including anti-aircraft and anti-infiltration scenarios.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a security conference at the end of July, warned that NATO military installations, which directly support Ukrainian actions on Russian territory, could be treated as participants in the conflict, noting that "all means" remain an option. Although he did not directly mention nuclear weapons, analysts believe that it is a signal of deterrence.👇

The current situation on the Ukrainian front is assessed as without significant developments, but any major movement by a third party near the Russian borders could be interpreted as the opening of a new direction.

Military experts in Russia have previously pointed to the possibility of NATO forces taking a more active role in Ukraine. The administration of Donald Trump has announced that in 2025 it will continue military support to Kiev, but with an emphasis on the principle of "America first" and sharing the costs among the allies.

Within NATO, the discussion continues about the scope of support to Ukraine and the risks of direct participation, which, according to analysts, makes operational coordination difficult.👇

NATO states that the new deployments are of an exclusively defensive nature, with the aim of deterring potential threats, while the Russian side sees these moves as pressure on its security space and possible preparation for offensive actions.

Intensive military exercises are being conducted on the ground on both sides of the border, with heightened combat readiness. The frequency of aerial reconnaissance and electronic anti-jamming measures has increased significantly.

Recently, Russia deployed the Iskander system in Belarus, while NATO is testing the Patriot system in Poland, adding to the tense atmosphere, according to military analysts.

Kaliningrad, a strategically important region, is considered particularly sensitive. Experts warn that any miscalculation could cause a chain reaction. Both sides' measures, although defined as defensive within their own doctrines, are often perceived by the other side as potentially offensive. 👇

NATO's eastward expansion and Russia's efforts to maintain its influence create a permanent strategic tension. Large troop movements in a period of heightened tensions, analysts warn, can easily get out of control due to unexpected events or lack of communication.

Although all sides say they do not want direct conflict, military exercises and "eye for an eye" deployments raise the risk of an incident.

When tens of thousands of soldiers are facing each other in a high-surveillance zone, every fighter jet flight or radar scan can become a flashpoint. Experts estimate that the development of events in the coming weeks can significantly affect the security picture of Eastern Europe.