Thread by @Hokton4

Another episode of yapping about regional politics nobody cares about (YARPNCA).
Today: Aosta Valley 🧵

Like South Tyrol, VdA enjoys a special autonomy for being a linguistic minority (though unlike ST the line between francophones and italophones is blurry at best).

Their regional party the Valdostan Union never gained the dominance SVP had for decades and never won a MEP on their own only did so in the 70s when they ran the nationwide Federalismo list (to some extend a precursor to Lega even).

After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the "First Republic", the parties (related to the) Pentapartito founded two regional parties and did not merge with PCI/PDS/DS thus UV was never *really* a member of the centre-left unlike SVP - only cooperating in EP elections.

In the late 2000s, UV suffered three left-leaning splits which formed with the regional centre-left parties ALD. This was so far the only time VdA had two camps like most regions.

UV kinda moved towards CDX but only to a similar extend as their cooperation with L'Ulivo.

This ended in 2013, when the autonomist splitters splittered to and a close election forced UV to seek cooperation with the centre-left. In 2017, their long-time president Augusto Rollandin was defeated in vonc and the governments barely ever hold longer than 2 years since then.

The chaos became stronger when Lega broke with the autonomists and ran on their own. It was Salvini's peak after all (2018ish to 2020ish). They gained the presidency for a short time and became the strongest party the next year but suffered major blows since then.

UV started the "reunion" project and even succeed for the most part. Except for the right-leaning autonomists who formed the "Autonomists of the Centre", all regionalist parties (re-)joined UV but they are in decline and are far away from their combined dominance in the 2000s.

Like in South Tyrol, FdI gained a footstep in Lega's former voter base and became the strongest party in the EP election (there was an autonomist boycott i might add). CDX formed a coalition for this election for the first time in the region and the first coalition since 2013.

CDX only needs 42% to win a 60% majority in the council. UV tried to form a coalition with AdC in the last moment but it was vetoed by Rolladin's new (former) party. Unlike the local election, where UV, AdC and PD formed a coalition.

Like i said, the christian democrats never joined their ranks so they are pretty much at the same level ever since (even is South Tyrol there was at least a small boost).

While the greens joined the autonomist left and a new party called Civic Network gained their voter base.

The left is split too this time unlike 2020. There are three lists: PD, AVS and said party and a coalition consisting of M5S, left-wing PD splitter and the former partner of SI.

PD is in the local government, while AVS & the coalition fought over issues like an electoral reform.

Neither of them formed or joined a coalition so the key question will be, will CDX reach 42%?
If not, will the current government keep their majority?

The regionalist parties acted very opportunistic before the reunification and often switched allegiance, so what will AdC do?

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@threadreaderapp small addition: UV wants to form without PD (tho its as unlikely as a CDX government as there is no auton. coalition so they have to hope for lists to fall below 5.7%).
Not sure what UV is cooking, maybe shifting to maybe IV or Action (they [kinda] cooperated in 2022, 2024 & now)

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@threadreaderapp here a visual representation of how difficult it is to predict it properly

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@threadreaderapp Wow thats was unexpected. The autonomists won a majority but Rollandin's party left so they formed a coalition with FI rather than PD.

@/ClassicalSocdem

updated charts

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