Thread by @AlexanderBrkr

Weekday Analysis: Chelsea's Defence 🔵

Chelsea did not have a good weekend, and their start to the season has been mixed...

I watched all of their games so far: Here's what I think Maresca is trying to do, what's working (more than you think!), and what's not 👍

The plan 📋

We can split defending into what Chelsea do with, and without the ball. Starting with the in-possession stuff, which is more fun...

Last season, Chelsea could often look quite rigid against low blocks. I think Maresca's response to this has been to adopt more fluidity like PSG, basically allowing his forward players to have more freedom on the ball.

Here's what I think that looks like *roughly*
▪️RW (Estevao, Palmer) floating inside, while Gusto pushes on
▪️Fernandez pushing forward on either side of midfield
▪️LB pushing inside, allowing Gittens/Neto space on the touchline - but also has freedom to overlap too
▪️Caicedo anchoring things at the back

You can call this a 3-1-6, but I think that's an oversimplification and a poor way of looking at it.

Not least because Chelsea are a lot more fluid, but the point of this setup is that Chelsea's midfielders have the freedom to drop in and across the pitch. The defenders have also been given licence to run forward too.

Now, the plus of this is that Chelsea are obviously much more dangerous going forward. Their NPxG this season is high - even including the MUFC game, they rank 4th for that metric, higher than Arsenal Liverpool and Spurs 👍

The consequence though, is that when they lose the ball, there's a large burden on their defenders + Caicedo to quickly snuff out attacks.

So, that's on the ball, what about without it?

Well, I've watched all of Chelsea's games this season, and there have been some common threads in all of those games, even though there have been different approaches.

Generally speaking: Chelsea have pressed in something like a 4-1-4-1. The main feature of this though, has been the RW pressing the opposition LCB. This means, when the RW goes, the RB has to jump up to press the LB too.

Against Palace and Brentford, this extended to the other side too. Chelsea's front three pressed the back three, while the FBs had to jump to the WBs.

Furthermore, the player on the far side of the pitch was also having to track the central midfielder, so the WBs are often having to switch between marking two different players.

So, now we know what Maresca is trying to do, let me talk through what I think is working, and isn't. And we'll start with the positives, as I'm trying to be a lil more positive this season on things! ;-)

Moises Caicedo 🟢

Caicedo had a great season last year, and maybe this campaign is just a continuation of that. But he's *really* stood out to me this season (perhaps that's also because I have him in my FPL team).

His reading of the game is just on another level, and he's quite clearly one of the best midfielders in the world at this point. This is crucial to Chelsea's approach on the ball, because not many players could fulfil that single defensive midfield role, and mopping up loose balls.

Caicedo though, can. Moments like this have been abundant throughout the season.

Back line collecting the ball 🟢

Okay, this is definitely not all perfect. I know Chelsea fans have been left pretty miserable with their centre-back pairing of Tosin + Chalobah. I do have critiques of them coming up...

...but, it has to be said that Chelsea have improved at dominating territory compared to last season.

Before the Man Utd game, they were top of the league for the least touches conceded in the final third, per FBref. I believe they were at 90 touches against per-90 (hah), which was 20 touches down from last season.

In English?

Chelsea have largely stayed strong in the air, Caicedo has helped hugely in midfield, and opponents aren't reaching their goal that often. We all remember the goals conceded against Brentford and United, but you don't remember the countless attacks that just don't form into anything.

Here's a graphic from @mygameplanai showing the touches in their 'funnel' from this season, again not including Man Utd game.

In this timeframe, Chelsea were second in the league for this metric, only behind Liverpool 👍

I also want to re-emphasise that, before we move into the negatives, I do think Chelsea have improved a lot on the ball. Especially considering Colwill and Delap's injuries.

I have a lot of confidence that, once Delap comes back and if he can stay fit, and when Gittens/Garnacho get up to speed to reinvigorate the LHS, they'll be strong in all areas.

Throw in set pieces as well! They're doing excellently in that regard, and Arsenal have proven how important a good record in that department can be 🟢

Okay, let's talk problems. First up, the FBs jumping up in the press 🔴

Now, when I was explaining this before, you may have detected an issue with this approach.

Firstly, if the opposition can play passes/switches directly to their FB/WB before Chelsea's can press...then it's free progression.

This happened WAY too easily against Bayern, with them easily bypassing Chelsea's press. A simple switch here takes out Chelsea.

But even if you're not playing against a high quality opponent, like Chelsea weren't against Brentford, issues can still come up.

The distance that Chelsea's FBs had to cover in this game to reach the Brentford WBs was huge. I thought that Hato and Fofana were pretty good at closing down quickly...but it still gave Brentford's FBs a lot of time to take a touch, and pass inside. 🤷‍♂️

I don't think Brentford exploited this a lot, but if Chelsea continue this approach going forward, where the opponent drops their WBs to increase that distance, problems will occur more frequently.

All it takes here is Kayode to pass inside and Brentford are away - he has enough time to do it.

Now, another issue I have with Chelsea's pressing comes back to what many fans are complaining about: why do they look so vulnerable to direct attacks? 🔴

Well, personally, I think this is about confusion in the back line, and unwillingness/inability to keep a high line.

Across multiple games, Chelsea just don't seem universally aligned on when to drop off, or jump up.

Take this chance against Brentford, the Schade one.
▪️Tosin gives the ball away and holds a deep position
▪️But Fofana actually jumps forward (looking to press the guy in front of him)
▪️While Caicedo retains an aggressive position

The result: 2v2.

Here's another situation against Fulham. Now, Tosin mops this up, it doesn't lead to a goal...but I can't help but think the pair of them are way too isolated. Large gap between the midfield and defence.

If Fulham do collect this between their front two, they're in another 2v2 situation.

To me, it seems Chelsea are stuck in two minds.

They want to press high up the pitch, but don't trust Sanchez to sweep up, or the centre-backs to defend in a high line, so at the first sign of danger both CBs are quick to drop deep/unwilling to step up aggressively.

They may be dominating territory generally speaking, but I think this approach allows their centre-backs to become isolated way too easily.

🔴Another tactical note I want to hit on with the back line is how they defend in their block. Chelsea have been surprisingly man-oriented for me. By that I mean...

When Chelsea are near the edge of their box, their centre-backs aren't focused as much on space, but the opponents.

So, if Chalobah is marking a striker, and that striker drops out wide, he'll follow them. If Tosin is marking another striker, who holds a central position, he'll stay near them.

See them both in this image I quickly picked out.

This approach does give the opposition less time, but it has led to large gaps in the back line, and that requires Chelsea's midfielders to consistently track runners from deep to stop those gaps being exploited.

This was exposed against Bayern most I think. This sequence could have ended in a goal pretty easily, with Tosin and Chalobah both caught out by the switch of play, and nobody tracked the runner from deep.

It's worth saying though, that this again is tactical. I think it's just a risky tactic by Maresca, and not necessarily the CB's fault. Well, entirely at least.

However, an area I feel much more individually critical in is rest defence 🔴

Put simply: if you want to keep players ahead of the ball, and often commit 6-8 players forward in attack, you can't let the opposition collect loose balls. If they do, you're EXTREMELY vulnerable to counters.

Fortunately, Chelsea have Moises Caicedo, who as we discussed, helps cover for this already. What you need from your CBs though, is them to stay near opposition strikers and mark them tightly when Chelsea lose the ball.

If they don't, then they can be left in 2v2 or 3v3 situations in an instant.

What I haven't liked so far is the distances these CBs have left between themselves and opponents.

Admittedly, I think Chelsea have got away with it mostly, but I think the disallowed Fulham goal shows signs of what can happen if you get it wrong.

When Fulham win the ball back here, Tosin is closest to Muniz, and I think he's slow to realise the possession loss. Perhaps that's why he looks to drop off, rather than jump up aggressively.

It's surprising that it's actually Chalobah who ends up coming across in this situation.

If you want an example of how to do it, and why it's important, let's look at the Brentford game.

The ball deflects out of the box out wide, by chance, towards Schade. But, Caicedo is close enough to apply pressure, which eventually leads to Chelsea winning the ball back...

...and to their first goal of the game.

There's the value of having aggressive players in your rest defence, when you're trying to squeeze teams in.

So where does this leave us? 🤔

Well, I'm no coach, I'm not at Chelsea. Maybe progress is being made on all of these weaknesses and the benefits will outweigh the cons.

Personally, I think Chelsea were pretty impressive in their opening four league matches. I also think, in possession, there's been a vast improvement on last season.

But, if that's not matched with strong defensive solidity, is it worth it?

No. And Maresca will know this. So I say, keep an eye on Chelsea's next few games, to see how he gets around these issues.