Thread by @warfareanalysis

Everything you need to know about the recent events between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Thread: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6,7,8

1.

What is the Durand Line?!

After the UK failed to occupy Afghanistan in its colonial campaigns, in 1893 an agreement was signed between Sir Mortimer Durand, a British colonial diplomat representing British India, and Amir Abdur Rahman Khan, the ruler of Afghanistan at the time, to end the British offensive wars and Afghan defensive wars between the UK and Afghanistan.

The treaty drew a 2,640-kilometer (1,640-mile) buffer zone from Afghanistan, separating it from British India. This buffer zone later became known as the Durand Line.

Analysts and historians say that the UK aimed through this treaty to establish a buffer zone between Afghanistan and British India (which today would be India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan).

Even after failing to occupy Afghanistan, it remained useful and served the British colonial establishment as a buffer country between the expansionist Russian Empire and the British Indian colonies.

This line cut through Pashtun tribal territories, dividing ethnic Pashtuns between the two sides, what is now eastern and southern Afghanistan, and northwestern Pakistan (the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa).

-Afghanistan has never formally recognized the Durand Line as an international border.

-Pakistani Pashtuns view it as an artificial colonial division of their homeland.

From 1893 to 2002, this annexed tribal Pashtun area was semi-autonomous. The British appointed leaders from the tribes to oversee the administration and paid them from British funds so that they wouldn’t fight British India, even though there were no permanent British soldiers present.

When Pakistan was created, this buffer zone was given to the newly established state; however, the semi-autonomous status remained.

Pakistani authorities called this area the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with no permanent presence of Pakistani forces or police in the area.

However in 2002

Exactly one year after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the Pakistani authorities changed the region’s status from semi-autonomous to militarized, sending permanent Pakistani forces into the tribal area and ending the British colonial law that had governed it since 1901 under the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR).

This move was directly linked to the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, aimed at preventing Pashtuns from aiding their people across the line or joining the fight against the American occupation.

The plan largely failed, as the former British colonial buffer zone is vast and mountainous, making it difficult to control or monitor.

This move by Pakistani authorities was met with violent rejection from the Pakistani Pashtuns. Numerous groups emerged to fight the new presence of Pakistani armed forces.

In 2007, some of these groups united and formed one organization, calling themselves the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

They went on to carry out bloody attacks against Pakistani police and armed forces.

Moving on to August 15, 2021. (next post)

2,

August 15, 2021

After the U.S. withdrawal, driven by its inability to sustain the losses from continuous Taliban ambushes and attacks, and after establishing a regime in Kabul with billions spent on its army and equipment, the United States left these resources behind for that army in a last attempt, if this regime stood against the Taliban, it would safeguard American interests at a lower cost than direct occupation, similar to the Arab proxy regimes today.

However, the Taliban took over the entire country and entered the American-backed Kabul regime’s palace on August 15, 2021. (Video)

All the resources the U.S. had left for the Kabul regime’s army became the assets of the newly established Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s army.

No one expected that, and it shook the foundations of regimes in Muslim-majority countries before the Western ones.

The Taliban inherited a state dependent on foreign aid, developmental assistance covered about 75% of the previous government’s budget. Foreign aid distorted the economy and fueled corruption.

American negotiators asked the Taliban to comply with banking standards such as anti–terror financing and anti–money laundering guarantees.

The Taliban agreed and welcomed auditors appointed by Washington to Kabul. However, the United States also wanted the Taliban to remove those it had appointed to lead the central bank.

The Taliban grew suspicious of taking advice from its former occupier, and the negotiations collapsed.

Afghan financial officials keep the state budget secret, sharing information with ministries only as needed.

The Taliban view transparency as accountability before Afghan citizens and companies, not before foreign governments.

Taliban officials often say there is no need to explain their financial affairs to the very countries that fought them until 2021, especially since those countries maintain sanctions and unilaterally cut aid.

They also point out that neighboring countries are not transparent about their government budgets either.

Tensions between the two sides escalated in September 2022, when the Biden administration unilaterally decided to transfer half of Afghanistan’s $7 billion in state reserves held in the United States to a fund in Switzerland.

The Afghan government has repeatedly demanded the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Afghan central bank assets frozen abroad, the restoration of international banking ties, and the resumption of stalled infrastructure projects, or at least the settlement of accounts with Afghan contractors who were never paid for work halted after the U.S. withdrawal.

Within weeks of taking office, Trump decided to halt aid to Afghanistan entirely, and soon after, many of America’s allies reduced their aid budgets as well.

Trump then demanded the return of U.S. weapons left behind for the client regime’s army, which collapsed within months against the Taliban in 2021, and he also called for the Bagram base and issued threats.

Added to all that, Pakistan closed land borders with Afghanistan, further strangling the Afghan economy, which depends heavily on agricultural exports.

Iran Pakistan also expelled Afghan workers, who had been a major source of foreign currency for Afghanistan amid severe sanctions.

As of now, Russia is the only country that has officially recognized the Taliban government of Afghanistan.

Moving forward to October 9, 2025 (read the next post)

3.

On October 9, 2025

Following Trump’s threats against Afghanistan, Pakistan struck the Afghan capital, Kabul.

This attack also coincided with the state visit of Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to India.

Pakistani media reported that the airstrikes on Kabul successfully killed the TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud

Afghan media reported that the airstrikes on the capital Kabul and Paktika targeted a market, and since it occurred at night, there were no casualties. (See #Photo)

Today the TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud released a video refuting that he’s neither killed or in Afghanistan ! (See #Video)

What happens next? (read the following post)

4,

The Afghan army responded with retaliatory attacks on Pakistani forces in the tribal areas along the Durand Line.

Although limited clashes between the Afghan and Pakistani armies have occurred numerous times along the Durand Line before, this one was a larger…

After the retaliatory attacks, Afghanistan spokesman, ZabihuAllah Mujahid announced:

“The Friday night (Pakistani) attack in Kabul caused no damage and was likely intended to create fear.

In Paktika as well, a market and civilians shops were targeted.

Whoever invades our soil or violates our airspace will face a harsh response.

In last night’s operations by the Emirate’s forces, 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed, and 30 others were wounded.”

As for official statements from Pakistan, there were almost none, only Pakistani media outlets and online accounts repeating the narrative of the Pakistani authorities.

Following those retaliatory attacks

#Video: Afghans marched in the hundreds of thousands, carrying their troops and celebrating their response to Pakistan’s violation of their airspace.

However, what happened next marked the biggest escalation between the two countries so far. (Read next post)

5.

On October 15, Pakistani forces crossed the Durand Line into Spin Boldak district, Kandahar region, where fierce clashes erupted between them and Afghan forces, resulting in heavy losses on the Pakistani side.

Afghan forces captured Pakistani tanks and equipment.

After footage and reports of the captured tanks began circulating, Pakistani media claimed that the tanks could not belong to Pakistan because they were T-55 Soviet models, which the Pakistani army supposedly does not possess.

However, a quick Google search shows that Pakistan has indeed purchased T-55 tanks.

#VIDEOS Footage of captured Pakistani tanks and dead Pakistani soldier in Afghanistan Spin Boldak district

What the Pakistani army did next was escalatory. (Read next post)

6,

After the humiliating footages came out Afghanistan

Pakistan army carried out drone strikes on gas tanker in Kabul which caused massive fire. (#video 1)

And launched airstrikes on populated areas of Kandahar(#Video 2)

It seems the small drone strikes on oil tanker in Kabul were meant to cause a massive fire, just for videos and headlines.

What was the result of these airstrikes on the Kandahar region?

7,

The Pakistani army airstrikes on populated areas in the Kandahar region KILLED 40 civilians, including women and children. (According to Karimullah Zubair Agha, director of public health in Afghanistan’s Spin Boldak)

#Video1: The targets and aftermath of the Pakistani airstrikes.

#Photo: One of the children killed in the Pakistani airstrikes.

#Video2: Funeral of those killed in the Pakistani airstrikes.

8,

On October 15,

Following those airstrikes,

1- Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesman for Afghanistan:

“At the request and insistence of the Pakistani side, a ceasefire between the two countries will be implemented tonight after 5:30 p.m.”

2- Pakistan says the ceasefire was at the request of Afghanistan not Pakistan.

Both sides are expected to hold negotiations in Qatar.

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Why did @X @support hid post 3 ?!!

Here’s a repost Without media.

On October 9, 2025

Following Trump’s threats against Afghanistan, Pakistan struck the Afghan capital, Kabul.

This attack also coincided with the state visit of Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to India.

Pakistani media reported that the airstrikes on Kabul successfully killed the TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud

Afghan media reported that the airstrikes on the capital Kabul and Paktika targeted a market, and since it occurred at night, there were no casualties. (See #Photo)

Today the TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud released a video refuting that he’s neither killed or in Afghanistan ! (See #Video)