Week 10 Matchup Mastersheet🧵
Tables displaying advantageous (or poor) matchups in fantasy football, DFS, and betting for the upcoming week of NFL action.
**For all charts: Green=Good for offense, Red=Bad
EPA + Success Rate
Finding the best overall matchups in both the Pass and Run games this week.
*DB=Dropback
Data via rbsdm.com
Explosive Plays
Explosive Pass: 20+ yards (target completed for 20 or more air yards)
Explosive Run: 15+ yards
Finding offenses who gain yards in big chunks and defenses that allow yards the same.
Run Blocking and Run-Stopping
Using YBCo/Att to determine how many yards per attempt offensive lines are creating for RBs before contact, and conversely how many yards defensive lines are giving up before reaching ball carriers.
*YBCo=Yards Before Contact
Rushing Concepts
Looking at how defenses fare against both zone and gap rushing concepts, while displaying the rates at which offenses run said concepts and how successful they are on them.
Rushing Location
Looking at how defenses fare against both interior (A/B gap) and exterior (C/D gap) rushes, while displaying the efficiency of these offenses on interior and exterior runs.
Pass Blocking and Pass Rush
Looking at pressure rate for defenses (and pressure rate allowed for offenses) to determine defensive pass rush strength as well as an offensive line's pass blocking ability.
Yards Per Attempt + Completion % Over Expected
Finding the offenses that gain the most yards per pass attempt (YPA), as well as complete passes at the highest rate over expected (CPOE).
Conversely, finding the defenses who allow the highest YPA and CPOE.
Passing YPG by Location
Looking at passing YPG (OFF) and YPG allowed (DEF), segmented into 9 different sectors of the field.
These are broken into 3 tables based on short, intermediate, and deep passing. Within these tables, broken up by left, middle, or right side of field.
Receiver Alignments
How defenses fare in the varying alignments that receivers are put in, those being out-wide, in the slot, or or inline targets.
And, how are these offenses producing at the varying alignments.
Receiver Coverages Faced
Breaking down how often defenses run man and zone coverages, and how effective they are in those coverages
On the offensive end, looking at how these teams do versus these coverages, in terms of fantasy scoring.
Receiver Safety Looks Faced
Breaking down how often defenses run single-high and 2-high safeties, and how effective they are in those looks.
On the offensive end, looking at how these teams do versus these safety looks, in terms of fantasy scoring.
That’s all for the Week 10 Matchup Mastersheet! These tables should hopefully help you identify mismatches this week, aiding in fantasy, DFS, and betting decisions.
If you want access to all of my research and writing, you can find it on my Substack here: ffdataroma.substack.com
The vast majority of data in this thread can be found using the @FantasyPtsData data suite.
If you're interested in using their comprehensive data suite, you can use code DATAROMA at checkout for 15% off!
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