As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/
The situation around Pokrovsk deteriorated over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through the southern part of the city. Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks. 2/
Earlier in the summer AFU units were working to stem the infiltration. The Russian advance at Dobropillia to some extent forced a shift of attention & resources. A lack of operational reserves has long resulted in a ‘firefighting’ approach to counter advances across the line. 3/
Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Response Corps, which took over the situation in July, has had the unenviable task of stabilizing the situation given deteriorating conditions, lack of reserves, and manning levels of deployed units. The geometry of the battle has long been unfavorable. 4/
As Russian forces accumulated in Pokrovsk they increasingly began to bring in drone teams, and operate drones from the city itself, widening the contested area around the city and interdicting logistics. 5/
Ukraine has brought in reinforcements and elite units to stabilize the flanks, but this may not be enough given the extent of Russian infiltration at this stage. 6/
If Pokrovsk falls so does Myrnohrad, and the pocket closes. The immediate result is Russian forces will operate drones from Pokrovsk, using the city to displace AFU units further back. Ukraine has defensive lines to withdraw to, and can reset its defense. 7/
The conditions are arguably better than the circumstances around Avdiivka in 2024. Russian forces lack momentum and the way they have been fighting won’t generate it. Infiltration yields a creeping offensive but can’t yield operationally significant breakthroughs. 8/
The challenge is that drones now effect fire control in 15-20km depths such that it is not possible to withdraw equipment, and much harder to extract people from pocket (especially from any forward positions). 9/
The city holds operational value. Its loss widens the Russian axis of advance in Donetsk west of the Kramatorsk conglomeration of towns, but it does not open those cities to be quickly taken. Hence the impact of losing Pokrovsk should not be overstated. 10/
Russia’s advance this year has been lackluster, especially along the axes they prioritized. The costs have been high as well relative to the amount of terrain gained. But Pokrovsk can be an unfortunate postscript to that story, especially if it results in unnecessary losses. 11/
Perhaps remarkably the city has been held for over a year, forcing Russian forces to go around it. Though over time it turned from a defensive anchor to another salient, which has proven increasingly difficult to maintain. /12
Pokrovsk is not insignificant, but the economic and logistical value of the city was lost long ago last fall. Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force to ensure a sustainable defense in the medium to long term. 13/
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