Thread by @OffgridIreland

‼️ "Future Forty" The Globalist Blueprint for Ireland's Erasure?

Post 1/ Intro Folks, the Department of Finance just dropped "Future Forty" a 2065 forecast that's basically a roadmap for the Great Replacement. They denied it for years as "far-right conspiracy," but here it is in black and white, mass migration to prop up an ageing Ireland, while native birth rates tank. From a Irish nationalist view, this is cultural suicide. We'll break it chapter by chapter quote their projections, expose what it means for the native Irish, and say how a nationalist government that cared about the native people would respond.

Post 2/XX: Exec Summary (Pages vii-xiv)

Their Quote: "Ireland’s real GNI* per-capita increased 143 per cent in the last thirty years... but the last four decades have also seen periods of incredible economic progress globally, with global GDP per-capita increasing almost five-fold between 1984-2024." They project GNI* to €537bn by 2065, but growth slows to 0.5%, deficits to -7.9% of GNI*, debt to 148% (€117k per person). Population to 6.77m, old-age dependency from 23.1% to 55.2%. Key: Without migration, labour force shrinks. (Exec Summary, p. xii; Key Messages, p. ix)

What It Really Means: They celebrate "global progress" via EU/globalisation, but admit our boom relied on foreign corps and migrants.

By 2065, fewer native Irish workers supporting more retirees birth rates crashing from 4.1 (1960s) to 1.3.

This erodes our ethnic homogeneity, turning Ireland into a migrant-dependent welfare state.

Great Replacement in action, replace native Irish families with imports.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do:

Ban non-EU migration, deport illegals. Tax breaks/child allowances for native Irish families only (3+ kids). Exit EU to reclaim sovereignty no more Brussels dictating our demographics. Pro-natal policies to boost TFR above 2.1.

Post 3/XX: Chapter 1 – Introduction (Pages 1-8)

Their Quote: "The challenges Ireland faces over the medium- to long term are often summarised as the 'Four-D’s' – demographics, decarbonisation, digitalisation, and deglobalisation. Ireland also faces challenges specific to our economy and society such as the provision of housing and the escalating costs of our health system. " They call for "anticipatory governance" per OECD, tying into strategies like Project Ireland 2040 (25% growth in Dublin by 2040, €2bn Urban/€1bn Rural Funds) and net-zero by 2050. (p.1-3)

What It Really Means: This is globalist speak "megatrends" forcing open borders and green tyranny on us. They admit volatility from wars/pandemics, but push EU agendas that dilute our nation. Housing/health crises? Caused by migrant floods they plan to accelerate. By framing it as "unavoidable," they're prepping us for ethnic dilution native Irish sidelined in our own land.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Scrap OECD/UN "governance" Ireland plans for Irish. Nationalize housing for natives first, no migrant allocations. Health rationed to citizens. Tariffs to relocalize economy, protect farmers from "decarbonisation" scams. Exit Eurozone for independent currency.

Post 4/XX: Chapter 2 – Future Forty Model Overview (Pages 9-16)

Their Quote: "Future Forty uses a growth accounting framework. GNI* = A · L^α · K^(1-α), with α=0.67. TFP growth is projected to fall gradually every five years, converging to 0.4 per cent annual growth in 2046." Population from Census 2022, TFR to 1.3 by 2038. Net migration: 41,400 by 2030 to 35,000 by 2065 (22 categories, 57% "policy controllable"). Labour force peaks at 3.4m mid-2030s, <50% of population by 2065. Tax elasticities (e.g., income 1.24, corp 1.15 pre-2015). Expenditure: Age-related to 18% of GNI* by 2065. FIF: 1.6% GNI* contributions to €100bn by 2041. (p.10-14; Table 2.1 p.14)

What It Really Means: Their model assumes endless migration (35k/year) to offset low births without it, economy tanks 12%. TFR crash means fewer native Irish kids, "controllable" migration = elite choice to import cheap labour, suppressing native wages and culture. Debt explosion from ageing? Blame abortion/feminism eroding families.

This blueprint replaces native Irish with non-Europeans for "growth."

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Remodel with zero non-EU migration, high native Irish TFR incentives (e.g., free housing for large native families). Boost TFP via tariffs/protectionism, bring manufacturing home. Scrap FIF – invest in native Irish youth training, not global funds. Deport criminals undocumented migrants look a revoking citizenships back to work permits.

Post 5/XX: Chapter 3 - Climate Change and the Green Transition (Pages 17-36)

Their Quote: "The climate emergency will have major implications. Ireland has already experienced a 0.9°C increase. 2-3mm rise in sea levels each year." Central: -3% GNI* by 2065 (2.5°C warming, RCP 4.5). Fiscal damages: 0.3-1.2% GNI* (e.g., flooding, ag losses). Green costs: €119bn capex to 2030 for net-zero; brown taxes to 0% by 2050 (-0.35% revenue). Scenarios: Unsuccessful action -5% GNI*; high coverage expenditure to 2% GNI*. (p.18-28; Figures 3.3A/B p.23, 3.9 p.32)

What It Really Means: Eco-hysteria to justify de-industrializing Ireland farmers bankrupt from "net-zero," while migrants flood in unbothered. -3% GNI* hit means less for native Irish families, more taxes for wind farms benefiting Germans. Challenges like flooding? Blame poor planning, not CO2. This accelerates replacement by crippling rural native Irish heartlands, forcing youth to cities/multicultural hubs.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Reject UN climate grift scrap net-zero, subsidize traditional farming/peat. Protect coasts with native labour programs, not EU funds. Energy independence via national resources, no "green" imports. Prioritize native Irish survival over globalist agendas.

Post 6/XX: Chapter 4 – Demographic Trends (Pages 37-60)

Their Quote: "In a Central Scenario, the population could grow to 6.77m by 2065, 27.3 per cent larger than the 2023 baseline. Net migration falls from current to 41,400 (2030) to 35,000 (2065)." TFR from 1.53 to 1.3 by 2038. Old-age dependency to 55.2%. Labour force: 2.9m to 3.4m by 2040s, then stable; natural growth negative from 2035. Low migration: 6m pop, economy -12%. 22 categories: Family 35%, employment 30%, EU 22%, IP 8%. (p.55-56; Figures 4.7 p.48, 4.8A/B p.49, 4.15 p.56)

What It Really Means: Here's the smoking gun migration "essential" to avoid contraction, but it's engineered replacement. TFR tanking due to high costs/abortion; 35k net migrants/year = over 1.4m by 2065, mostly non-native. Migrant stock from 6% (1986) to 15.5% (2024) projections suggest native Irish could become a minority by 2050 (as warned in 2005 reports) or around 2048 in Dublin per some estimates.

Politically: Loss of control, as migrants vote in blocs, socially: Cultural clashes, eroded identity, rising tensions leading to unrest like Professor David Betz's warnings on multiculturalism fueling civil war in the West, with "anger rational" and legitimacy crumbling from distrust in elites.

Blueprint for a non-native Ireland.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Close borders now – zero net migration, deport all non-citizens/IP seekers. Massive pro-natal for native Irish. Tax-free for 3+ kids, free childcare/education. Ban abortion, promote traditional families. Emigration controls to keep native Irish talent home. Low scenario as goal: Smaller, purer Ireland.

Post 7/XX: Chapter 5 – Housing (Pages 61-78)

Their Quote: "The provision of housing.. in the current context of stifled supply and high demand." (p.61; Box 5.1 p.64 Tax Expenditures) Costs peak late 2030s at 2-3% GNI*; under-supply blamed, not migration. Target 300k units by 2030, social housing share constant in Central. Expenditure: Central constant supports; alternatives increase/decrease. Overall: Up to 1% GNI* impact.

What It Really Means: Housing crisis imported via 100k+ arrivals/year – Ukrainians, Africans taking builds while native Irish emigrate. Peak costs from migrant demand; "stifled supply" hides vulture funds/globalists. By 2065, suburbs multicultural ghettos, native Irish priced out accelerating mixing and native displacement, worsening social fractures as per Betz's civil war risks from divided societies.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Freeze all immigration. Nationalize vulture funds, allocate housing to natives only. Build for native Irish families subsidies for rural homesteads. Deport to free up stock. No EU "funds" dictating policy.

Post 8/XX: Chapter 6 – Healthcare (Pages 79-110)

Their Quote: "The cost of providing healthcare and long-term care not only in the context of soaring costs but also in the context of our ageing population." (p.79; Box 6.1 p.80 – Sláintecare) Costs double by 2045 to 10%+ GNI*; age-related surge. Central: Per-capita growth; positive: Productivity/healthy ageing, negative: Rising costs/unhealthy. "Irish Public Health Expenditure as percentage of GNI*" (Figure 6.8 p.90).

What It Really Means: Ageing + migrants overusing free GPs = collapse. Costs explode for retirees, but resources diverted to newcomers. Unhealthy ageing? From cultural erosion, stress of replacement. Native Irish grannies wait while imports get priority eroding our people's health legacy, fueling political backlash and social unrest as elites lose legitimacy, echoing Betz's warnings.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Ration healthcare to citizens only, no entitlements for migrants. Invest in native Irish med schools/doctors no imports who leave. Preventive care for natives, end automatic access.

Exit EU health mandates.

Post 9/XX: Chapter 7 – Digitalisation (Pages 113-136)

Their Quote: "The digitalisation process... potential risks." (p.114-123) +10% GNI* in high scenario; digital capital at 6.91% growth, elasticity 0.015 to TFP. Central: TFP to 0.4%; high cuts debt 25pp. "Ireland Digital Decade, Key Indicators and Targets, 2025" (Table 7.1 p.116).

What It Really Means: Tech boost from Silicon Docks but it's foreign giants (Google/Meta) colonizing us. Job losses in trad native Irish sectors, market concentration distorts for natives. High digital = more surveillance, less sovereignty aiding globalist control over our people's future, potentially suppressing dissent amid rising tensions.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Mandate native Irish ownership of tech/data. Tax Big Tech heavily, fund national firewalls. Protect trad jobs with tariffs.

Use AI for border security, not "diversity" tracking.

Post 10/XX: Chapter 8 – Deglobalisation (Pages 137-156)

Their Quote: "Slowbalisation and the Growth of Protectionism." (p.137) Modest -1-2% GNI* drag in central; scenarios: Slow decoupling -2-3%, rapid fragmentation -5-7%. "Irish Goods Trade... Total Goods Trade Relative to GDP" (Figure 8.2 p.138).

What It Really Means: They fear trade wars hitting our open economy, but it's a chance! Reliance on US-China splits exposes us, "friend-shoring" means more EU chains. Means continued dilution via global supply chains bringing migrants, heightening social divisions.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Embrace deglobalisation tariffs on imports, relocalize fisheries/food. Exit EU to trade with kin (UK/US). Self-sufficiency to preserve native Irish from foreign dependence.

Post 11/XX: Chapter 9 – EU Enlargement (Pages 157-174)

Their Quote: "Candidate Country Total Population, 2023" (Table 9.1 p.158). +1% GNI* potential via migration/trade; Western Balkans join. "Wave One GDP Per-Capita and International Trade" (Figure 9.1 p.159). Gravity models: 66% export boost.

What It Really Means: More Eastern Europeans flooding in cheap labour, cultural clash. "Positive" via migration = more replacement. EU vampire sucking our veto, diluting sovereignty. By 2065, Ireland a province of superstate, politically powerless natives in a fragmented society ripe for conflict.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Oppose enlargement, exit EU now. Control borders/migration ourselves. Trade bilaterally with allies, no bloc. Preserve native Irish purity.

Post 12/XX: Chapter 10 – Central Scenario Projections (Pages 175-192)

Their Quote: "Future Forty’s Central Scenario... projects... GNI* reaching €537 bn in 2065. Annual economic growth... converging toward 0.5 per cent by the mid-2060s." Three phases: 2025-37 (deficit <3%, growth >1%, debt <50%); 2038-54 (~5% deficit, <1% growth, debt >100%); 2055-65 (7.9% deficit, 0.5% growth, 148% debt). Age-related spending to 18% GNI*. (p.179; Figures 10.1-10.6)

What It Really Means: Unsustainable deficits from mid-2030s because of ageing/migration costs. Phases show slow death: Early "surplus" on foreign backs, then collapse as natives age out. Means native Irish burdened with debt for non-native benefits, socially straining communities and politically eroding trust.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Native-first reforms: Higher retirement age for migrants only, pro-native pensions. Cut foreign aid/welfare. Productivity via native innovation. Revolt against this future.

Post 13/XX: Chapter 11 – Alternative Scenarios (Pages 193-210)

Their Quote: "GNI* increases 50-138%." (From summary: 2,187 variants; high migration: +120% growth, debt -15pp; low: +69%, +12pp debt. High digital +10% GNI*; worst climate -2%. Even best: Deficits from 2030s.)

What It Really Means: Variations prove migration drives "positives" – high = 8m pop, but cultural erasure. Low migration "worst"? We'd call it best for purity. Skews to negative to scare us into open borders, ignoring social costs like Betz's predicted unrest from multicultural failures.

What a Nationalist Gov that Cared About the Native People Would Do: Aim for low-migration purity. Tech breakthroughs for native Irish, not globals. Ignore EU/climate hysteria.

‼️ Appendix – Quick Explainer on Key Terms ⬇️

To keep it simple: GNI* = Gross National Income modified (Ireland's GDP alternative, strips out multinational distortions like foreign profits).

TFR = Total Fertility Rate (kids per woman; 2.1 needed for replacement).

FIF = Future Ireland Fund (savings pot for future spending).

Old-Age Dependency = Retirees (65+) per 100 working-age (15-64).

Use these to see through the jargon it's all about who controls Ireland's future.

This "Future Forty" is the elite's surrender to replacement.

From migration blueprints to green chains it's anti-native.

We say: Borders shut, families first, EU out. Share this thread, join the fight!

God save the Irish nation.

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