1/M
The most secure position in science is one that's both:
1) supported by an evidence-based scientific consensus
2) disputed by Matt Ridley [@mattwridley]
This thread will provide some examples.
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
archive.is/zpiYp
2/M
Ridley shows how one can get away with being wrong on topic after topic, as long one states the paranoid ideological narrative many conspiracy theorists want to hear.
Others made this point, such as Dave Farina.
pubpeer.com/publications/D…
youtube.com/watch?v=C-gdab…
3/M
So on to the secure positions that are:
1) supported by an evidence-based scientific consensus
2) disputed by Matt Ridley [@mattwridley]
There's an ongoing multidecadal global warming trend of ~0.3°C/decade.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
@mattwridley 4/M
Passing 1.5°C early.
"over the next century, roughly speaking, and I’m at the bottom end of that range. I’m probably within that range. I think we probably will see 1.5 degrees of warming – this is above preindustrial levels"
open.edu/openlearn/natu…
climate.metoffice.cloud/current_warmin…
@mattwridley 5/M
Sea level rise accelerated.
"you mean the unsteady rise in sea level, decelerating since 2004?"
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
newdirection.online/the-european-j…
@mattwridley 6/M
The Climategate conspiracy theory fell apart.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
theguardian.com/theobserver/20…
@mattwridley 7/M
The Montreal Protocol mitigated ozone depletion.
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
@mattwridley 8/M
Policy intervention mitigated the impact of acid rain.
jeb.co.in/journal_issues…
doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv…
jstor.org/stable/pdf/170…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
archive.is/7uY2E#selectio…
@mattwridley 9/M
The risk of a global pandemic increased after 2012.
2012:
"Repeatedly throughout the past five decades,the
imminent advent of a new pandemic has been foretold"
mattridley.co.uk/blog/apocalyps…
@mattwridley 10/M
The COVID-19 pandemic was not relatively easy to stop.
“[…] I have been wrong about a lot during this pandemic.”
archive.is/BlTYx#selectio…
mattridley.co.uk/blog/is-anothe…
@mattwridley 11/M
Stockholm, Sweden has not achieved infection-induced herd immunity after its first wave.
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/19joho/status/…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
@mattwridley 12/M
Sweden suffered more than one SARS-CoV-2 wave.
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
ourworldindata.org/explorers/covi…
@mattwridley 13/M
There's a tropical tropospheric hot spot, as per the negative lapse rate feedback.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…
mattridley.co.uk/blog/what-the-…
@mattwridley 14/M
There's positive feedback from increasing water vapor levels.
"as the air warms there will be an increase in absolute humidity providing "a positive feedback""
mattridley.co.uk/blog/what-the-…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
@mattwridley 15/M
Clouds feedback is very likely positive.
doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2…
nature.com/articles/natur…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
“we do not know that clouds have negative feedback for sure, but there is good evidence that they probably do”
web.archive.org/web/2010111002…
wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/28/mat…
@mattwridley 16/M
Sensitivity exceeds 2.0°C.
“on track for 1.2°C.”
climateconversation.org.nz/downloads/scie…
“modal climate sensitivity in all the best studies is now settling down at a bit over 1.5 degC.”
wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/15/mat…
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
@mattwridley 17/M
Ice cores support median climate sensitivity estimates exceeding 2.0°C.
[multiply by 3.7 W/m2 for a doubling of CO2:]
"0.84 °C/W/m2 (0.20 to 1.9 °C/W/m2, 95% interval) for interglacial periods"
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
mattridley.co.uk/blog/what-the-…
@mattwridley 18/M
The HIV/AIDS pandemic was not the result of a contaminated oral polio vaccine.
bmartin.cc/dissent/docume…
x.com/ggronvall/stat…
archive.is/Wl1cQ#selectio…
x.com/KariDebbink/st…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
@mattwridley 19/M
SARS-CoV-2 vaccines mitigated transmission, despite contrarians committing the nirvana fallacy.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
doi.org/10.1002/146518…
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/gorskon/status…
@mattwridley 20/M
Excess saturated fat is a health risk.
"the U-turn over cholesterol and saturated fat"
mattridley.co.uk/blog/cholester…
mattridley.co.uk/blog/fat-and-f…
"a true assessment of whether Tamiflu works will be made by the Cochrane Collaboration"
mattridley.co.uk/blog/the-real-…
cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.10…
@mattwridley 21/M
Salt contributes to high blood pressure.
"In terms of establishing cause and effect, it is now rather less speculative than the theory that salt causes high blood pressure."
bmartin.cc/dissent/docume…
"Cochrane Collaboration"
mattridley.co.uk/blog/the-real-…
cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.10…
@mattwridley 22/M
Intelligence agencies don't confirm that the laboratory researcher Ben Hu was 'patient zero' for the COVID-19 pandemic, as per a lab leak.
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
@mattwridley 23/M
Antarctic sea ice decreased.
“scientists predicted a retreat of Antarctic sea ice but it has expanded instead”
mattridley.co.uk/blog/what-the-…
climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
climate.gov/news-features/…
@mattwridley 24/M
Fake images don't change the fact that pregnancy can occur for short-haired cis women who get mastectomies, and for some trans men.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
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@mattwridley 25/M
The IPCC + Paris Agreement's long-term warming trend is calculated from a pre-industrial baseline of 1850-1900, not from 2012.
Dangerous warming of 2°C would be reached before 2050, not after 2100.
x.com/flimsin/status…
climatechangetracker.org/igcc
[essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/26…]
@mattwridley 26/M
The IPCC's 1990 projection did fine.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
x.com/hausfath/statu…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
"Under these actual forcings, the change in temperature in FAR [IPCC 1990 report] aligns with observations."
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
@mattwridley 27/M
Post-1993 warming exceeds ~0.1°C/decade.
x.com/mattwridley/st…
"the scientific consensus has settled down on about a degree of temperature increase over a century"
wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/15/mat…
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…
@mattwridley 28/M
Alpha and Delta variants were more virulent than wild type SARS-CoV-2.
nature.com/articles/s4146…
journals.plos.org/plosbiology/ar…
nature.com/articles/s4146…
cmaj.ca/content/193/42…
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
[threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497238…]
mattridley.co.uk/blog/virulent-…
@mattwridley 29/M
CFR exceeds IFR and 0.3%.
That's not changed by cherry-picking a low outlier IFR estimate that excluded those older than 69, i.e. the group with the highest IFR and CFR.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
[pubpeer.com/publications/2…]
x.com/mattwridley/st…
mattridley.co.uk/blog/covid-and…
@mattwridley 30/M
It's not the case that every paper says the largest contributor to global greening is increased CO2.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
spiked-online.com/2022/02/15/why…
@mattwridley 31/M
Model warming projections did fine.
"Model simulations published between 1970 and 2007 were skillful"
doi.org/10.1029/2019GL…
science.org/doi/full/10.11…
x.com/hausfath/statu…
realclimate.org/index.php/clim…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
mattridley.co.uk/blog/what-the-…
@mattwridley 32/M
There was no statistically changepoint, or 'pause', in global warming.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
doi.org/10.1038/s43247…
@mattwridley 33/M
Bulk troposphere warming exceeded ~0.1°C/decade since 1979.
x.com/mattwridley/st…
2013:
"over 34 years, there has been about 0.36 degrees of warming on a rolling average"
archive.is/M4lTg#selectio…
realclimate.org/index.php/surf…
ametsoc.net/sotc2024/SotC2…
[ametsoc.org/ams/publicatio…]
@mattwridley 34/M
Global surface warming in the 30 years since 1995 exceeded 0.4°C, or >0.14°C/decade.
Ridley in 2025:
"it's warmed at about a quarter of a degree per decade on average across the last 30, 40 years.""
youtube.com/watch?v=LFPj8t…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
mattridley.co.uk/blog/whatever-…
@mattwridley 35/M
Arctic sea ice did not decrease as much as in the 1920s and 1930s, when compared to recent decades.
"ample anecdotal evidence that Arctic sea ice retreated just as much in the 1920s and 1930s"
archive.is/GByr3#selectio…
x.com/Ceist8/status/…
doi.org/10.1029/2007GL…
@mattwridley 36/M
Ocean heat content did increase as a result of anthropogenic forcing.
"You would never know from this that the “it’s hiding in the oceans” excuse is just one unproven hypothesis"
mattridley.co.uk/blog/what-the-…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
web.archive.org/web/2025092001…
@mattwridley 37/M
Hansen's 1988 warming projection did fine.
Ridley in 2011:
"Jim Hansen of NASA told us in 1988 to expect 2-4 degrees in 25 years. We are experiencing about one-tenth of that."
archive.is/oZa0t#selectio…
doi.org/10.1029/2019GL…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
realclimate.org/index.php/clim…
@mattwridley 38/M
Sulphur aerosols were contributing cooling, which reversed as aerosols washed out.
The northern hemisphere warms because it has more land.
nature.com/articles/s4324…
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/26…
acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
climateconversation.org.nz/downloads/scie…
@mattwridley 39/M
The 21st century global warming rate is ~0.3°C/decade.
"The climate is going to have to get a move on if it is hit 3C this century. One-tenth of the century now over and no significant warming yet."
mattridley.co.uk/blog/the-best-…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…
@mattwridley 40/M
The AGW consensus exceeds 0.3%, and the 0.3% calculation makes no sense.
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/…
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
mattridley.co.uk/blog/the-real-…
@mattwridley 41/M
The medieval warm period, Roman warm period, and Holocene Climate Optimum were not globally warmer than today, nor were their warming rates greater than today.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
web.archive.org/web/2025042000…
@mattwridley 42/M
GISP2 is non-global and ends by 1855.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
"one of many now making it amply clear that the warmth of the Holocene optimum, peaking about 7,000 years ago, was both global in extent and considerably warmer than today"
archive.is/GByr3#selectio…
@mattwridley 43/M
At this point, if someone is still gullible enough to trust Ridley over the scientific community, then they're beyond help. Some ignorance is willful.🤷♂️
No, the IPCC does not consistently exaggerate.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
web.archive.org/web/2016102418…
@mattwridley @threadreaderapp unroll
@mattwridley 44/M
Re: "The most secure position in science is one that's both:
1) supported by an evidence-based scientific consensus
2) disputed by Matt Ridley"
So...
x.com/dkupiecki/stat…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/SaskiaPopescu/…
@mattwridley 45/M
We're on pace for 1°C of 21st century global warming by ~2040, not by 2100.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
"My best guess would be about one degree of warming during this century"
mattridley.co.uk/blog/my-life-a…
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…
@mattwridley 46/M
Masks did fine.
"overclaiming for vaccines and masks"
mattridley.co.uk/blog/how-scien…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/GidMK/status/1…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
@mattwridley 47/M
COVID-19 deaths in India were underreported, as reflected in excess mortality
x.com/mattwridley/st…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
doi.org/10.1371/journa…
doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-…
web.archive.org/web/2022051412…
ourworldindata.org/explorers/covi…
msemburi.shinyapps.io/excessvis/
[doi.org/10.1038/s41586…]
@mattwridley 48/M
A wave of cases occurred in India within months of September 2021.
x.com/mattwridley/st…
web.archive.org/web/2025110817…
@mattwridley 49/M
RCP8.5's high forcing can be reached in ways other than what RCP8.5 specifies.
Post-2005 forcing so far exceeds RCP8.5.
x.com/ed_hawkins/sta…
x.com/hausfath/statu…
x.com/AndrewDessler/…
x.com/KenCaldeira/st…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
archive.is/aSTDE#selectio…
@mattwridley 50/M
Debunking Ridley's disinformation becomes tedious since many of his fans tend not to honestly care about evidence anyway.
It is what it is. 🤷♂️
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
"Scientists respond to Matt Ridley’s climate change claims"
climatefeedback.org/open-letter-sc…
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