Thread by @josh_metcalf

The 1988 presidential election saw George Bush Sr. deliver a landslide victory against MA gov. Michael Dukakis—but not in his home state, where he eked out an 8 point win.

This is the first time this election has been mapped in detail. Lots more maps/analysis below!

1/a lot

The Bush coalition was mostly suburban and exurban in nature, with his best performances coming from affluent conservative bulwarks like Weston, Wellesley, and many South Shore communities.

Dukakis was able to win the state chiefly thanks to a burgeoning coalition of nonwhite voters and urban white liberals, but also won commanding margins in the Pioneer/Hoosic valleys and the south coast.

2/

This margin represented a 10 point shift to the left from Reagan’s 3 pt. margin in the state four years earlier. It also was the last time Massachusetts was at all competitive on the presidential level—Republicans have neither cracked 40% of the vote nor won a single county/congressional district since.

3/

Democrats did better everywhere, but put up especially impressive margins in the Berkshires thanks to a combination of deindustrialization, a concerted Democratic effort to actually organize in the region, and a growing influx of hippie libs/tourism (in that order).

(Though I initially suspected the huge redshift of New Braintree in central MA was a reporting error, it turns out Dukakis' very controversial attempt to open a prison in the town while governor made him a pariah among its residents)

4/

Conversely, Dukakis’ gains were smallest among areas experiencing high demographic turnover—cities like Boston, Lawrence, Revere, and Brockton—which I suspect may have been due to anti-immigration attitudes among said cities’ White residents.

(Keep in mind that this was near the peak of White flight and racial tensions in MA; the 1984 race riot in Lawrence and ongoing Boston busing desegregation crisis would have been fresh on the minds of many voters)

5/

Relatedly, it is important to remember that Massachusetts was *extremely* white in 1988. The political evolution of the state is just as much a story of changing demographics as it is changing coalitions. There would be a large influx of nonwhites moving to MA starting in the 1990s and continuing to this day.

MA was nearly 90% white in 1990, and was profoundly segregated by race (compared to just 67% white in 2020.)

6/

Thank you for reading! Below is a detailed discussion of my methodology and data sourcing:

The precinct boundaries were sourced from NHGIS’s 1990 VTD file with no adjustments. Boundaries would have been changed in 1992, so these precincts reflect the true lines.

Harvard’s Record of American Democracy contained precinct results for 270 of Massachusetts’ 351 municipalities. For the 81 missing towns, I collected and digitized archived election reports like the one below from each individual town clerk.

7/

Unfortunately, 20 of these 81 towns were unable to provide results. After scouring every potential data source (State archives, Secretary of State’s office, local libraries/newspaper archives, etc.), I can confidently say that these results no longer exist.

The highlighted towns below show where data is missing.

8/

To circumvent this, I created groupings of demographically and politically similar areas (for example, Methuen was grouped with Haverhill and Andover) and ran regressions using party registration totals—which do exist by precinct for 1988—to estimate partisan split by affiliation.

9/

Here, I estimated Dukakis’ margins in Methuen with registered dems, reps, and indies to be 93, -27, and 37 points respectively.

I was then able to plug in these datapoints to estimate results by precinct. This is not a perfect method, though, so results should be taken with a grain of salt.

Major props to my friend @Thorongil16 for all of his help and guidance throughout the process - I wouldn’t have been able to finish this project without him.

10/

Thank you so much for reading! This project was the result of several months of work and I’m immensely proud of the result. If you’re interested in seeing more election maps and analysis, give me a follow!

/thread

Tag list (like to be added)
@MapRepository @isilanorien @asean048 @iitoi_ @PhantomPolitik @TheAleksee @SageOfTime1 @Shane_maps @athe_red @litrallymcgov @AmeliaMakesMaps @IssaniSaif @Blue_SC_ @poirieux_mae @Texanvoter22 @xddddd20811581 @Haldeman1969 @starscollecting

@summ1tseek3r @Sakai66666 @BrucePerdu @moocow123450 @smchatter1 @StefanScharf_DD @Elongated0003 @Okajin_Dassault @quichwe10 @KingBayito @Clapseal21 @GTabiadon @Renlyyynnn @jacob_wiencek @westreservelib @NavMechEng @McclatchieTrac4 @exist_you @davidsacc12345 @MWPolitics101

@DownstateILGuy @rep_favorite @mineacts028 @skibidioomf @MacroDove @Hubg76787 @82_Streetcar @smchatter1 @RBSalt @HaugheyHater @ForMyBeeBee @NikkiHaleyFan02 @PearceC08 @TadeuszMrozek2 @TheLoge13 @BordyBrody @PolitikNerd5 @celeste43_ @aagg436 @842wolves @sick_of_winning

@citiesindust97 @nicolescua22 @LIEngProf @cart0graf @DeltaPoliticsUS @ZZZZach89 @qwertz42069 @SpectatingBoy @jusdorange__ @shc1XYZ @Oxenstierna_IRL @insert779 @Ayush4570 @BAnderstone @MaxwElections @TheBestOfSweden @rookaloot