had our LP summit today, sharing slides for the state of VC market section
(obv not comprehensive, but what stood out to us.)
thx @peterj_walker for most of the charts
👇
later stage vc is picking up since the dip, less so at seed/series A
deal count is trending down
highest share of dollars going to $100M+ rounds (almost 75%)
"fastest" is getting faster
hard to ignore the neo labs raising at billion valuation
(found this chart via @deedydas via @theinformation)
last week's thread from @jayagup10's on "kingmaking" resonated, so borrowed/summarized the thread
(adding to QT)
valuations are getting rising - more specifically, expanding at the top
expectations are rising too
series a median ARR more than doubled in 4 years
our expectation at pre-seed has changed too
quick touch on our expectation at pre-seed, based on what we're seeing:
- having a prototype is given, even if non-technical. if you're asking for money, please tell me you've at least taken a stab at building it with AI.
- for b2b, i'm seeing lots of companies raising pre-seed with revenue - paid pilots/"design partners". less so for high-ticket or long sales cycle industries.
- b2c is usually launched or about to when i meet them
- there are always exceptions to simple rules like, highly technical companies - where i'd still expect a prototype but less traction since early days spent on R&D
time between venture rounds is growing
median time from seed to series a went from 1.6 in 2019 to 2.2 years in 2025
40% of companies who raised series a in 2025 took longer than 3 years after their seed
historically, startups who raised bridge rounds were less likely to raise a series a (signals slower growth)
2025 saw three quarters in a row where bridged startups outpaces non-bridged startups at series a
(don't think it means bridges are good per se, just more needed)
have you hear of "seed-strapping"? where you raise a seed round and grow without any additional funding? sounds great and definitely possible with AI.
challenge for pre-seed VCs (if you care) is that seed/bridges are increasingly SAFEs, so it might take 2-3 rounds before any change in the SOI
zirp era changes around investing in diverse founders outside of SF seem to have pulled back
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