Ryan O'Leary Profile picture
Former Company commander of Chosen Company in Ukraine. Views,comments etc are my own.

Jan 19, 26 tweets

Ukraine is not losing drone warfare tactically. Ukrainian units still kill large numbers of enemy infantry with FPVs daily.
Ukraine is losing operationally and strategically because it never defined depth ownership as the goal.

Drone warfare is not about who hits more soldiers today.
It is about who controls space tomorrow.
Depth ownership means controlling movement, logistics, ISR, comms, and decision-making across an entire sector, not just a trench or a bunker etc.

Ukraine’s drone effort is still optimized for infantry attrition, not sector transformation.
That creates good propaganda videos but weak overall outcomes in regards to operational and or strategic goals.
Russia is optimizing for the opposite. Fewer clips, more collapse.

Operational depth is where wars are decided.
If the enemy can move fuel, ammo, drones, crews, and repair vehicles 10 to 40 km behind the line without fear, they own depth even if they lose 5x the men in trenches.

Russia understood this shift first.
They stopped treating drones as flying grenades and started treating them as a system for denying movement, logistics, and drone operations. (Rubicon)

Ukraine still treats depth as undefined territory.
No one owns it. No one is responsible for it.
So it defaults to being used for infantry kills because that is easy to measure and emotionally satisfying.

Russia has defined depth ownership more clearly.
If Ukrainian movement in rear areas becomes dangerous, the sector will eventually collapse.
If Ukrainian drone crews cannot operate safely, the kill chain dies. This has been their focus with Rubicon etc. Collapse and sieze initiative.

This is why Russia focuses on:
• hunting drone operators
• destroying vehicles not soldiers
• striking logistics nodes
• jamming or killing ISR
• making roads lethal
That is depth ownership.
They do not care about infantry kills on a fucking graph. They plan for shaping operations.

Ukraine focuses on infantry because it is visible and politically safe.
But infantry is replaceable.
Fuel, repair, electricity, comms, trained crews, and logistics tempo are not.

The result is predictable.
Ukraine wins the tactical exchange and loses the operational one. We win the media but lose the ground.
Russia loses soldiers but gains freedom of movement.
Ukraine kills men but loses space.

This is not a problem of production or technology.
Ukraine has some of the best drones in the world.
This is a doctrine and responsibility problem. A problem that has plagued Ukraine since before mass drone usage. Its a mentality problem

Depth ownership is not assigned to anyone. It is literally a free for all.
SBS exists, but it is a branch, not a sector owner nor is it responsible for certain operations. its a clusterfuck.
Brigades own trenches.
No one owns the 20 to 80 km behind the front.

When no one owns depth, no one defends it.
When no one defends it, Russia fills it with drones.
When Russia fills it, logistics slow.
When logistics slow, fronts collapse quietly.
Easy enough to figure out? (apparently not for Ukraine. lets continue trumpeting 30k+ killed a month while we lose areas due to this bullshit.....

This is why the spiral is accelerating when it comes to land losses.
Every week rear movement becomes more dangerous.
Every week drone teams survive less.
Every week Ukraine spends more effort just maintaining yesterday’s position. BECAUSE WE ARE FOCUSED ON TARGETING INFANTRY!!

How to fix this starts with redefining the mission.
Drone success metrics must shift from body count to sector denial. This idea we can kill to collapse russia is absolutely fucking stupid and holds no value in strategic or operational standing. It holds likes, heart emojis and that is it. it is not a strategic win! (ITS FUCKING STUPID)

Depth ownership must be formally defined as a mission space.
Someone must own each section and be responsible for each section.
Someone must be evaluated on whether Ukrainian movement is safe and Russian movement is not. And to ensure that pressure is applied to keep friendly lanes clear.

Drone units must be tasked primarily against systems, not people.
Logistics, EW, comms, ISR, repair, transport, drone crews, artillery, mortars, etc etc
Infantry becomes a secondary target, not the main one. Infantry do not shape the battlefield. They simply exploit the openings created by weapon platforms & systems.

Every sector needs a depth map.
Routes, hubs, choke points, drone corridors, EW lines. AND IT NEEDS TO BE SHARED TO EVERY UNIT AND COORDINATED PROPERLY!!!!
If those are not mapped and contested daily, depth is being lost. Lost depth = lost ground

SBS must be used to enforce standardization and integration, not just production.
Same training. Same comms discipline. Same frequency management. Same kill chain logic across brigades and across fronts. This idea you can kill your way to victory through infantry losses is asinine. It does not work outside of getting media attention. it is a fools errand. and strategically a fuck up

Ukraine must treat depth ownership as equal to holding ground.
A sector where rear movement is unsafe due to drones is already lost even if the trench is still held. I will say it again: A SECTOR WHERE REAR MOVEMENT IS UNSAFE DUE TO DRONES IS ALREADY LOST EVEN IF THE TRENCH IS STILL HELD

This is still reversible.
Ukraine has innovation, production, and talent.
What it lacks is clarity of mission at the operational and strategic level and proper command to be forward thinking away from Social media likes and whatever else bullshit comes from killing infantry.

WE MUST Define depth. Assign ownership. Measure it. Analyze it, Fight for it daily.
If this is not done, no amount of FPVs hitting infantry will stop the slow collapse of sectors.

Drone warfare has never been about killing russian soldiers to even the playing field. Any thought of that is ridiculous and shows lack of forethought.
It is about deciding who gets to move, supply, think, and survive tomorrow.
Right now, Russia is winning that fight.

Ukrainian command needs to understand and decide ownership. This idea where GUR, SSO, Alfa, Police, SBS, Regular units etc can launch drones wherever the fuck they please at whatever distance is absolutely ridiculous.

0-20km Brigades
21-80km SBS (fills voids for the 0-20km during high pressure situations and concentrated assaults by russian forces)
80-150km SSO
150km-300km Alfa
300km+ GUR

The above is a example that creates ownership and priorities. This creates ownership, responsibility, and prevents over expending resourecs for targets outside of their area. it also cuts down on and helps centralize intelligence etc.

I am not sure why Ukrainian leadership has yet to figure this out, but the free for all at the frontline and in general when it comes to targeting is absolutely dog shit. We could kill 100k russians a month and it will not turn the tide if we can not create ownership to shape the battlefield. And to do that we need units focused on certain depths.

for fucks sake.

And this isnt a Magyar problem. This is a overall leadership problem from the MOD down.
There is ZERO reason any SOF unit is using FPVs to strike infantry at the 0 line outside of it looking good for metrics for the brave one or whatever the fuck that bullshit point system is.
Your sof units should be fucking up logistics, command, supply, etc not killing dumbass infantry at the 0 line. Its a waste of elite soldiers, intelligence assets, and budgetary concerns. its fucking ridiculous.
Brigade= 0 line
SBS= support for 0 + xx KM extra.
Everything past that should be your SOF units. and they should be inflicting operational and strategic kills. If after 3 months of work in a sector if a SOF unit cant define what the big picture/small picture effects were on the operational/strategic/sector command then they failed to do their job. Killing infantry by the way is not operational or strategic effect. its localized.

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