1. 🧵 Did India STOP buying Russian Oil? 🇮🇳🇷🇺🇺🇸
Confusion reigns over the US-India trade deal. Trump claims victory, while Indian ministers remain vague. What’s the real story behind the 50% vs 18% tariff? A deep dive analysis. 👇
2. Passing the Ball 🎾
When asked about the Russian oil clause:
EAM @DrSJaishankar: "Ask Commerce Ministry."
@PiyushGoyal: "Ask External Affairs."
Result? Confusion & opposition attacks. Why is no one owning the narrative? The govt. lacks coordination on this specific issue.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal 3. The Timeline Chaos 🗓️
Feb 2: Trump posts on Truth Social. Claims India will buy $500B goods, stop Russian oil & tariffs drop to 18%.
Feb 2-4: Budget Session chaos ensues over these claims.
Feb 5: @DrSJaishankar in US for other meetings, unaware of trade specifics.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal 4. The Official Documents 📄
Feb 6: @WhiteHouse releases a "Monitoring" doc regarding Russian threats.
Feb 7: The 25% punitive tariff was conditionally lifted.
Crucially, the detailed deal isn't signed yet. Credit hungry @POTUS Trump announced it prematurely to claim credit.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS 5. Tariff Math: 50% vs 18% 📉
@DonaldTrump threatened 50%.
Current Reality: We are still paying a 25% "punitive" tariff (linked to Russian oil).
The Promise: Rates drop to 18% only in mid-March after signing.
The Catch: If we buy oil, the 25% penalty snaps back.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump 6. The Silver Lining ⛅
It’s not all bad. The deal likely includes 0% tariffs on ~$10B of Indian exports (approx 1,900 items). But the immediate "win" is avoiding the catastrophic 50% tariff @realDonaldTrump threatened. It was a survival move for Indian exporters.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump 7. Why Buckle? The Economics 💰
🇮🇳 saved ~$17B buying Russian oil over 4 years. But 🇮🇳 earns $45B+ annually from exports to the US. @realDonaldTrump put a gun to the $45B income. Losing the US market would cost far more than the savings from discounted oil. Realpolitik.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump 8. Why is PM @narendramodi Silent? 🤫
Unlike the EU deal (Jan 27), no address to the nation.
Reason: The deal isn't signed! Handshake is expected in March.
Trump’s premature announcement forced India into a corner. The govt is buying time hoping for a Russia-Ukraine fix.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump @narendramodi 9. Trump’s Game Plan 🇷🇺
Trump knows Russia survives on oil sales to India/China. By forcing India to stop, he aims to bankrupt Russia & force an end to the war.
Ground Reality: Indian refineries are voluntarily reducing Russian imports to avoid sanctions risks.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump @narendramodi 10. The "Monitoring" Task Force 👁️
The US set up a mechanism to "monitor" if India buys Russian oil.
Opposition calls it an insult to sovereignty.
Reality: It’s the cost of doing business with "America First." India is accepting scrutiny to save its export sector.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump @narendramodi 11. Fact Check: "Modi Loves Me" 📹❌
A viral video of @realDonaldTrump saying "PM @narendramodi loves me" is circulating.
Fact: It’s from Oct 16, 2025, not now.
Trump was actually worried about damaging Modi's image back then. Don't fall for old clips being repurposed.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump @narendramodi 11. Refineries in Trouble? ⛽
@NayaraEnergy (49% Rosneft owned) faces issues. Rosneft wants to sell, but who will buy if Russian oil is banned?
State refiners (HPCL/BPCL) are cutting orders. India might look to Venezuela or back to the Middle East for oil supplies.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump @narendramodi @NayaraEnergy 13. The Verdict 🏁
India hasn't officially "banned" Russian oil, but imports are dropping due to pressure.
The Trade Deal is a shield for Indian exports ($45B earnings > $17B savings).
Govt. needs transparency rather than playing "pass the ball" between ministries.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump @narendramodi @NayaraEnergy 15. Conclusion 🇺🇸🇮🇳
"America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests." - Henry Kissinger.
Trump is acting purely on US interests. India must do the same. If dropping Russian oil protects our massive service/export sector, it’s a bitter but necessary pill.
@DrSJaishankar @PiyushGoyal @WhiteHouse @POTUS @DonaldTrump @realDonaldTrump @narendramodi @NayaraEnergy @threadreaderapp unroll.
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