Thread by @insiderpedia

📌 Transrail Lighting Ltd: ₹18,216 Cr order book (incl L1) + Net debt down to ₹463 Cr + 27%+ revenue guidance.

T&D execution machine or Bangladesh exit risk? Breaking down Q3FY26 concall 👇

A detailed thread 🧵

CMP: ₹555 | Market Cap: ₹7,452 Cr | PE: 16x

📊 9M FY26 Performance:

- Revenue: ₹5,017 Cr (↑9% YoY for 9M)
- T&D focus: ~90% of revenue
- Other segments: Civil, railways, pole business

This is where it gets interesting. Strong execution despite monsoon headwinds.

💰 Debt Reduction Story - The real star performer:

- Net debt: ₹463 Cr (down from ₹703 Cr in H1 FY26)
- Debt-to-equity: 0.39x
- Debt-to-EBITDA: 0.57x
- Interest cost: 3.3% of revenue (vs 4.1% last year)

Deleveraging while scaling. Credit rating upgraded.

💵 Cash Flow Improvement:

- Cash equivalent: ₹380 Cr (9M)
- Increase: ₹293 Cr over H1
- Driver: Improved cash flows

Cash generation accelerating as business scales.

📈 9M Order Wins:

- Q3 orders: ₹1,396 Cr
- 9M total: ₹5,135 Cr
- Mix: 55% domestic, 45% international (as per AOP)
- L1 position: ₹3,483 Cr (expected conversion soon)

Strong order momentum.

🎯 Unexecuted Order Book:

- Base order book: ₹14,733 Cr
- Including L1: ₹18,216 Cr
- Book-to-bill: 2.5x
- Mix: 57% domestic, 43% international
- T&D remains: 90%

Massive revenue visibility. 2.5x book-to-bill is exceptional.

🌍 Order Book by Geography:

- India: ₹8,000+ Cr
- Africa: ~₹4,000 Cr
- SAARC (incl Bangladesh): ~₹1,200 Cr
- MENA (newly entered): ₹750-800 Cr

Well-diversified. Not over-reliant on any single geography.

📊 Revenue Outlook:

- Original guidance: 24-25%
- Revised guidance: 26-27%
- Current expectation: 27%+ (stretching for more)
- Driver: Strong post-monsoon execution

Beating own guidance. Monsoon impact absorbed.

💼 FY26 Order Intake:

- YTD: ₹5,135 Cr + ₹3,483 Cr L1 = ₹8,618 Cr
- Expected addition: ₹1,500-2,000 Cr
- Total expected: ₹9,500-10,000 Cr (beating last year)
- Already bid: ₹15,000 Cr (results in next 2 months)

As per AOP. Guidance being met.

🚀 Medium-term Outlook:

- Addressable market (next 12 months): ₹1 lakh Cr+
- Order intake target: 10-14% of addressable market
- Revenue growth guidance: 20-25% for next couple of years
- Opening FY27 order book: ₹16,000+ Cr expected

Clear growth trajectory.

🇧🇩 Bangladesh Execution:

- Completion: June-July FY27
- Remaining by FY26 end: ₹600-700 Cr
- Q3 execution: ₹300-400 Cr
- Receivables: ₹488 Cr (manageable)
- Collections: On time, before time (project of national importance)

Better than planned execution. Clean exit in sight.

⚡ Q3 Project Milestones:

- 765 kV Khetri-Narela: 3 lines commissioned (national importance)
- 765 kV Ahmedabad-Lakadia: Completed
- RVNL overhead electrification: Completed
- Execution: High operational discipline + safety compliance

Strong delivery credentials.

🏭 Capex Progress:

- Brownfield Phase 1: 70% production started, 100% by Feb-end
- Greenfield tower factory: March-April commissioning
- Impact: Doubling capacity (towers + conductors)
- Funding: Internal accruals + IPO proceeds

Backward integration to support FY27+ growth.

📈 Key Client Growth:

- PowerGrid FY27 capex: ₹37,000 Cr (↑32% vs FY26's ₹28,000 Cr)
- Transrail doing: 20+ jobs with PowerGrid
- Opportunity: Market share expansion

Major client increasing spends = positive for Transrail.

💵 Borrowing Composition:

- Long-term debt: ~₹90 Cr
- Short-term debt: ~₹750 Cr
- Total net debt: ₹463 Cr
- Capex funding: Internal accruals + IPO (minimal incremental debt)

Healthy mix. Capex not stretching balance sheet.

🔋 Battery Energy Storage:

- Status: Evaluating, not ready to bid yet
- Opportunity: India budget projections look attractive
- Future: Will look at this opportunity

Keeping options open for adjacencies.

💎 Commodity Risk:

- Copper exposure: Minimal (more applicable to cable industry)
- Impact: Insulated from copper price increases

No material commodity risk.

📋 Statutory Expense:

- One-time item: ₹17 Cr (new Labor Codes)
- Nature: Exceptional, non-recurring

Clean operating performance ex-exceptionals.

✅ Order Book Quality:

- Profitable orders in line with current performance
- Not just chasing size, focused on margin-assertive projects
- Aligned with execution strengths

Discipline in order selection.

⚠️ Risks to Watch:

- Bangladesh remaining ₹600-700 Cr (June-July exit)
- Heavy monsoon impact demonstrated (execution delays)
- Capacity ramp-up execution (70% → 100% by Feb, greenfield by March-April)
- International exposure at 43% (geopolitical risks)

⚠️ More Risks:

- ₹15,000 Cr bid pipeline conversion (results in 2 months)
- Working capital needs with ₹18,216 Cr order book
- Short-term debt at ₹750 Cr (refinancing risk)
- Execution risk on 20-25% growth guidance

Conclusion:

✅ ₹18,216 Cr order book (2.5x book-to-bill)
✅ Net debt down ₹240 Cr to ₹463 Cr
✅ Revenue guidance upgraded: 27%+ (from 24-25%)
✅ Order intake on track: ₹9,500-10,000 Cr expected
✅ Bangladesh exit by June-July FY27 (on track)
✅ Capacity doubling (brownfield 100% by Feb, greenfield by March-April)
✅ PowerGrid capex ↑32% to ₹37,000 Cr
✅ 20-25% revenue growth guidance (next couple of years)

⚠️ Bangladesh ₹600-700 Cr remaining (exit risk)
⚠️ Monsoon execution delays demonstrated
⚠️ Capacity ramp-up execution critical
⚠️ ₹15,000 Cr bid pipeline conversion pending
⚠️ 43% international exposure

Strong execution machine with deleveraging balance sheet. Bangladesh exit and capacity commissioning are key milestones.

Disclaimer: Not a recommendation or investment advice. Do your own due diligence.