Anything more than a limited air strike will require significantly more assets than are currently in theater.
What would an attack targeted at regime change in Iran look like and how might they respond?
Lets discuss in this 🧵.
1/
At least 152 C-17s have transited into the Middle East from various points around the world since mid January. 12 F-35As and 6 EA-18G Growlers have arrived in Jordan while an F-15 rotation occurred in the same time frame.
2/
F-16s and F-35s from European bases could support an operation with tanker support to/from.
But is this enough?
No.
3/
Prior to MIDNIGHT HAMMER commencing, squadrons of tankers and fighter aircraft positioned in the region.
4/
Prior to ABOLUTE RESOLVE commencing, we saw an influx of special operations aircraft position themselves in the region.
5/
A potential regime change operation in Iran will look significantly different than either of the above.
The Iranian regime has been planning for such a scenario since 1979. There are bunkers scattered around Tehran to keep key leaders safe in the event of an attack.
6/
It will take multiple waves of airstrikes in order to ensure that senior leaders are effectively eliminated.
This will not be a one-off MIDNIGHT HAMMER type of operation but will more likely spread over a number of weeks or potentially months.
7/
In the event of an attack, how might Iran respond?
-Ballistic missile launches by the dozens
-One way attack drone swarms
-Attempting to mine/close the Strait of Hormuz
-Attacks by proxy forces on US & allied forces
8/
Naval assets positioning into the region can provide a layered aerial defense in conjunction with newly and previously deployed PATRIOT and THAAD systems.
9/
The assets currently in theater are consistent with a limited airstrike operation, but more assets are on the move inbound signalling planning for a more in depth operation.
10/
How long before enough assets are in place?
The earliest possible window may coincide with the arrival of the Ford CSG in ~10-14 days.
Keep an eye out for F-22s and additional F-35s to move that way over the next week or two. Should also see more CSAR and SOF assets inbound.
11/
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