Thread by @laurimyllyvirta

China's official statistics report a 0.3% drop in CO2 emissions from energy&industry in 2025, the third time that annual emissions have fallen this century and the first fall predominantly driven by clean energy growth.

Coal consumption grew 0.1%, oil consumption 3.6% and gas consumption 2%, while non-fossil energy use grew 14%. Yet, after subtracting non-energy use, total fossil energy consumption fell 0.4%, showing how chemical industry demand drove fossil fuel use.

Power generation from carbon-free sources grew 14%, covering all of the 4.8% growth in total power generation and pushing thermal power (coal, gas and biomass) down 0.7%.

Solar power delivered 62% of the growth in clean power generation, wind power 24%, hydro 7% and nuclear 6%. Wind power generation grew 13% while capacity increased 23%, indicating issues with grid integration.

The share of clean power generation in China's power mix reached 40% up from 37% in 2024, with solar and wind making up 22%, up from 18%. In the total energy mix, the share of non-fossil energy rose to 21.7%, up from 19.8%.

China seems to have revised the definition of carbon intensity to include industrial process emissions. Which emissions are included has not been specified in the country's climate commitments, making these kinds of revisions possible.

Because of the fall in cement production, in particular, the revised definition of carbon intensity will give China space to emit a bit more CO2 while meeting the 2030 climate commitment.

My estimate for the fall in CO2 in 2025 was precisely the same 0.3%, but I can't claim that level of accuracy as the changes in coal, oil and gas consumption and process CO2 were not the same as in official data, with the differences canceling out.
carbonbrief.org/analysis-china…

Today's data release - Statistical Communique on Economic and Social Development
stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202502…