Thread by @disintresting

@McFaul Europe is fragmented into strategic cultures:

Northeast: existential realism
West/South: post-historical, risk-averse

There is no one "Europe" but at best: four.

@McFaul “Values” are secondary or even misleading.

Real cohesion comes from shared threat perception
Willingness to fight.

@McFaul Ukraine is already part of the real military core.

Let that sink in to you Americans.

Formal membership is secondary to integration into the Northeastern deterrence system

@McFaul U.S. pressure ("Trump" if you want to personify) on European (western) allies is a corrective force forcing Europe to rearm and take responsibility.

@McFaul The real NATO is not "NATO"

De facto structure today:

Core (credible deterrence):
Nordic-Baltic 8
Poland
Ukraine

JEF

Peripheral (political, slower, less credible):
France
Germany
Southern Europe

@McFaul Deterrence depends on forces on the ground and immediate response capability.

Not Treaty obligations.

@McFaul Defense industry means sovereignty and war capacity.

Fragmentation is not inefficiency. It reflects lack of political unity. There is no one Europe.

@McFaul You say: "Reform NATO to preserve unity"

I reframe:

"Consolidate the real NATO core, accept differentiated Europe"

@McFaul Strategic synthesis

NATO survives not as a unified bloc
→ but as a layered system
The decisive layer is:
Northeastern deterrence axis

U.S. role: Not “protector of Europe”
But balancer + enforcer of responsibility

Western Europe: Will follow, not lead
Must be pressured

@McFaul @threadreaderapp unroll