William Yang Profile picture
Senior analyst, Northeast Asia for @crisisgroup. Former foreign correspondent covering #China, #Taiwan and the Indo Pacific. e-mail: wyang@crisisgroup.org

Apr 10, 6 tweets

Some more thoughts on KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping:

1. Cheng went heavy on her emphasis of the shared Chinese heritage, the mention that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are "one family" and belong to the "Chinese nation." There are even some lines that mirror the Chinese Communist Party's official narrative, in which Cheng said both sides of the Taiwan Strait will be dedicated to fulfilling the "rejuvenation" of the Chinese nation.

These remarks reflect Cheng's attempt to appeal to Beijing's expectations, and it will be a high-risk gambit, as while the Chinese leadership might approve her messaging, many in the Taiwanese society, including some in her party, might not agree with the degree to which she has tried to align her messaging with Beijing's narrative.

2. The messaging from Xi is softer than usual, as he did not mention the "One China principle," which should be interpreted as Beijing's attempt to maintain the baseline message of peace and facilitate a more productive relationship with the KMT.

Throughout his remarks, Xi is also emphasizing that as long as Taipei recognizes that both sides belong to one China and adheres to the opposition of Taiwan independence, then Beijing is willing to allow Taiwan to enjoy a range of benefits, including exporting products to the Chinese market and expanding Taiwan's space of international participation. This is basically returning to the longstanding practice of highlighting the carrots to facilitate a peaceful reunification.

3. Cheng's trip is likely going to be used by Beijing to signal to Washington that there are opinions within Taiwan that are different from the message that Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has been advocating, and that cross-strait peace remains possible if Washington is willing to consider scaling back arms sales to Taiwan or if the leader in Taipei expresses openness toward peaceful reunification.

The domestic political effect of Cheng's trip remains unclear, but her attempt to align her message with Beijing's narrative, centering on the shared Chinese heritage, will certainly become a focus of the Taiwanese government's attack in the near future. Overall, this trip won't change the domestic political dynamics in Taiwan, which means that the political gridlock that has paralyzed policy-making in the parliament could persist.

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