People think this post bearish. It's not bearish.
Let me show you the difference. $SPY
What the models actually say on $SPX right now:
3-Day prob up: 90%
10-Day prob up: 94%
20-Day prob up: 96%
20-Day crash prob: 2.3%
Model consensus: 9 bullish, 0 bearish
Every single model. Aggressive risk-on.
Breadth isn't breaking. It's confirming.
78.7% of SPX above 10DMA
82.2% above 20DMA
63.3% above 50DMA
4-week new highs: 32.5%
New lows: 1.4%
These are zones where names digest large moves, small pullbacks. Buyers and sellers must find equilibrium.
Rallies die when breadth thins. This isn't that.
SPY's probabilistic distribution also confirms this.
Stat regime: 4/5 Bull
Crash prob: 0.0%
Stress: 9
AION Index: 81
The path of least resistance is still higher.
So no. The chart isn't bearish. It's extended. Those are different words for a reason. Digest, then continue. All algos remain bullish.
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