Thread by @SaladinAlDronni

Huge operations of Tuaregs FLA and Al-Qaeda affiliated JNIM are ongoing in Mali since early morning today, with several positions in Kidal region overrun, Reuters reports of an attack on Mali military base near the capital Bamako. It seems Tuaregs are back inside Kidal. #Mali

For the first time in three years it seems the former Tuareg capital, Kidal city, is indeed in Tuaregs hands, though reports are confusing. In 2023, Mali junta and Russian army broke Algiers Accords and ousted Tuaregs from Kidal, today Russians are fleeing the city.

In addition to Kidal, Gao city vicinity may be witnessing additional clashes, some checkpoints have been captured from FAMA and Russian army, but for now difficult to assess. Islamic State is nearby, if anything happens, they might exploit the situation further.

Sévaré, a city in Mopti region, is being attacked by al-Qaeda forces with its military base allegedly already in JNIM hands.
This is the biggest attack in Mali since last year's July offensive, when multiple Western Mali cities were attacked.

This time however, it's clear it's a joint offensive conducted by both JNIM and FLA forces, the first of its kind in years. Rare instances of that happening were on tactical grounds in 2024/2025.

There are uncofirmed reports of clashes at Bamako Modibo Keita international airport, but not as credible as what is happening in Mopti/around Bamako itself/Gao/Kidal and soon likely more in order to distract Russians from providing proper support and confuse Turkish drones.

Day of Rage in Mali.
After unprecented in scale attacks in 2024 inside Bamako, 2025 offensives in Western Mali catching Mali junta and Russians off guard, and this year's back and forth with FPV drones, Tuaregs are back with JNIM clearly cooperating. Politically huge.

Kati, a powerful military base near Bamako, has allegedly been overrun by JNIM forces, Malian Minister of Defense Sadio Camary's house was attacked, not clear of his status. It seems there really might have beeen something happening on the airport.
dw.com/en/mali-explos…

Mali army confirms just now the army barracks and multiple checkpoints inside Bamako city were attacked this morning.
Clashes continue in different points in the capital, several central Mali bases and cities + Kidal/Gao in deep East of Mali.

Mali capital in recent hours

And another Kidal video video as uploaded by Hasret below. Given how another points on the map are being declared attacked, the effort put into the offensive by both JNIM and FLA is not something anyone expected throughout the month.

Recently, many have claimed alongside various reports, that Mali junta struck a deal allowing it some kind of ceasefire in exchange for multiple prisoners released + JNIM shifting efforts to Burkina Faso and Niger, while Niger jutna decided to open separate channel with JNIM.

It's what I have been repeatedly stating for over 3 years now - the more you strike deals with JNIM, the more the group deepens its influence over what you are doing and Bamako junta hasn't learnt any lesson from multiples issues since it arrogantly kicked the French out in 22'.

According to credible reports by now confirmed by several sources, a helicopter with alleged Russians on board was struck in Gao earlier.
The whole Kidal province is being attacked by joint Tuareg/JNIM forces, with Bamako representatives killed or held hostage.

According to al Jazeera, gunfire was heard near the Keita airport (again claims are surfacing but nothing credible as of yet).
Airports and bases with drones have been a consistent target, with a dramatic intensity in 2026, with all players, JNIM, FLA and Islamic State...

Identifying hangars and operators, trying to eleminate the major source of danger from above. Islamic State has struck airports twice in recent two months in Niger, surely JNIM and FLA have a plan for this issue.

According to various sources, JNIM may have entered Bamako after the seizure of Keti base. It further confirms that today's campaign is not a brief hit and run but a strategic choice. Russians have to prioritize and abandon some areas. We may see unprecedented recordings today.

Day like this is when a window for Islamic State opens for transgressions in Burkina Faso's Dori and, especially today, in Ménaka.Wouldn't surprise me if IS Sahel decided to try the defences around Menaka and inside to see, if Russians are there or are too distracted by JNIM/FLA.

And indeed, it's the start of what I felt was coming and it's not only Mali that will be hit the way it is. With the Iran crisis ongoing, a rare gap appears that jihadists/separatists/rebells of various kinds will be exploiting literally here and now.

There simply doesn't exist such a convenient moment for them to attack and gain influence before supply chains are restored,and that lack of resources is what doesn't affect IS/AQ/FLA in the same way it affects state players. Which means,they have to attack while Iran continues.

Today is also a test.
A test of what we, the analysts covering the Sahel from local/regional or jihadi terror lens perspectives have argued about for the last two years.
Are JNIM and now also Tuaregs, aiming and above all, ready and powerful enough to seize and hold cities. My opinion constested by many, has been clear - yes, under several tough conditions, but for me it's been a matter of when but not if.

Many laughed.

Léré is where the first significant victory after the Tuaregs were ousted from Kidal happened in 2023, also a signifcant moment of JNIM/FLA cooperation. We then may see something happening in Timbuktu following the chain of logic.

As usual, the US embassy releases a statement warning of clashes, here yet again, Keita airport being mentioned. Recently, the junta in Bamako has warmed to Americans, with both sides striking deals significantly widening US options in the Sahel again.

In my last month's article for @ForeignPolicy I have noted the US efforts to reengage with Sahelian juntas, that are clearly seeing the urgency in asking for support that is now severely limited and strained in Russian case.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/31/isl…

@ForeignPolicy Several points on the map were confirmed seized by joint JNIM/FLA offensive, I am barely able to keep up track and confirm legitimacy, however, Bourem is in JNIM hands as Casus says + there are new reports of Gao city yet to be determined.

@ForeignPolicy Unconfirmed reports on various high level military and political junta representatives killed in early morning JNIM ambushes, though the question is not the legitimqcy of the claims, but who exactly was killed. JNIM has succeed in eliminating some key parts of junta hierarchy.

@ForeignPolicy FLA political representatives have called on the Burkinabe and Nigerien military chiefs to abstain from helping the Malian junta in its effort to regain control over East, Central and parts of west Mali. JNIM seems to have invested massively in encircling Bamako, Mali capital.

@ForeignPolicy Ever since the 2024 Bamako assault, it's been clear JNIM has a massive support networks inside and outside Capital, further confirmed by assaults in west Mali in 2025, that were simply unprecedented, something that hadn't happened at worst moments in 2012.

@ForeignPolicy And here, part of my Nocember 2025 gigantic thread in which I discussed if JNIM is ready to rule, especially worth asking today.

Confirmed - JNIM and FLA forces have entered parts of Gao city, the capital of Gao province. Huge development, amid other developments. Today, Mali loses control over significant parts of its territory for the first time since 2012. @casusbellii

In some cases, FAMA was able to defend sites or JNIM simply withdrew, leaving dead behind. At the end of the day, what is happening in West and Central Mali may be a strategic choice by JNIM in order to faciliate influence gaining in Gao, Timbuktu and Kidal areas.

There is simply no going back from what has happened today, just as it was clear only further crisis awaited after the Bamako assault in 2024, Russian disaster at Tinzawaten in 2024, suffering almost 100 of dead and last year July offensive in 2025. Escalation ladder is too deep.