Thread by @ChrisMurphyCT

I want this war to end - now. And I want a deal that constrains Iran's nuclear program.

But what we are learning is that any deal Trump gets - and a deal is still very unlikely - is going to be WAY worse than the nuclear deal he cancelled a decade ago.

1/ Here's what we know:

2/ Obama's JCPOA limited Iranian enrichment to 3% and put a low cap on how much enriched uranium Iran could possess. It required Iran to open up facilities to regular inspection to monitor compliance. Iran pledged to never obtain a nuclear weapon.

3/ When Trump blew up the agreement, Iran put their nuclear program into overdrive. They made advancements they never made before the JCPOA.

Before the agreement, they had enriched to 20%. Now - 60%.

Iran can make a bomb in months. Probably 10 of them. the-independent.com/news/world/mid…

4/ Trump basically wants a new JCPOA but with a temporary ban on enrichment. He is VERY unlikely to get that.

Why? Because Iran has new leverage they didn't have in 2015: a) the Strait; and b) the 2015 coalition (which included Russia/China) is gone. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

5/ But of course Iran can afford to sign a deal that limits their present enrichment, because thanks to Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA, the regime now knows how to make weapons grade uranium. No deal can reverse the knowledge they gained. That's a disaster Trump made.

6/ And Trump isn't going to get the inspections system Obama got - because that relies on international cooperation and no other nation trusts Trump and he rejects multilateralism. His inspections regime, like everything else he touches, will be full of holes.

7/ Trump's ineptitude lowers my expectations for a deal. And yes, a bad deal could be better than no deal (the most likely outcome still being no deal).

But no one should forget how badly Trump and his team have bungled this. It's unforgivable incompetence.